value investing

Waiting For Godot

The unending trauma of the global financial markets has drained many seasoned investors and participants. In terms of magnitude of pain endured, the 2011-2012 period has far surpassed the 2008-2009 period.

In the 2008-2009 period, markets collapsed so swiftly that most participants were frozen like deer in headlights. The sudden and severe drop in the markets had a surreal feel to them. While some pain was experienced, the intervention by authorities in the US brought back markets with a vengeance in 2009. A lot of investors who were not leveraged and did not get liquidated in the collapse, dismissed the entire episode as an aberration. More...

India Is The Only One

The fear and pessimism in the world is unprecedented. However, India is the single biggest opportunity in this crisis and the only one in my opinion.

The problem at the core of the global crisis is a complete collapse of private demand. This collapse has been primarily driven by households deleveraging their balance sheets after a three decade debt fueled consumption binge. The crisis is being further exacerbated by private sector financial institutions deleveraging their balance sheets driven by new onerous regulations and (in europe) a loss of confidence in their holdings of sovereign debt. More...

Revisiting January 2007

I wrote a newsletter in January 2007 at the height of the global easy money boom.

It seems like everything that the media is talking about today is what should have been worried about then. The time to be fearful was then. Now is the time to be greedy. More...