Energy Opportunity In India

Zerohedge recently posted an article titled India - Land of Energy Opportunity (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-india-land-energy-opportunity). An investor forwarded the link to me for my comments.

India imports 80% of its energy needs. Energy security is a myth and is going to remain elusive. Energy producers need energy consumers as much as the other way around. In a world with complex supply chains for goods and services, geopolitical risk leading to energy supply disruption is hogwash. Extended geopolitical instability will lead to disruption in a lot of supply chains and will have large unintended economic consequences. More...

The Business Cycle Is Not Dead

Businesses, economies, nature and life move in cycles. Cycles are driven by reversion to the mean. If that was not the case, we would have a planet inhabited by 100 feet tall and 1 foot tall humans.

Just like in times of euphoria, we forget that profits can fall, that growth can fizzle and that the party can end; in times of pessimism we forget that the reverse can happen. More...

Insufficient Investment Fuels Inflation in India

The whole world is suffering from collapsing aggregate demand. Monetary authorities everywhere are struggling with liquidity traps as they experiment with alternative ways of injecting money into the system after taking short term interest rates to zero.

China stimulates its economy fiscally by planned and targeted capital investment (fraught with gross capital misallocation albeit).
India is suffering from a completely different problem. India has structural and too much aggregate demand. Its demographics are driving demand that is relatively price inelastic. In India, inflation is not being driven by the classic monetary reason of too much money chasing too few goods but is being driven by too many people chasing too few goods. More...