The Opportunity in Indian Government Owned Banks

In my 20 years of investing I have learned that calling the bottom of anything is fraught with
danger. I am still going to go ahead and call a multi-decade bottom in India’s government owned
banks. Indian government owned banks remind me of where Indian government owned oil
marketing companies were in August 2013 except that the banks are even more depressed. In
August 2013, the dollar rupee exchange rate peaked at 69.00, oil peaked at USD 108 per barrel
and the government of the day refused to let oil marketing companies raise retail fuel prices. It
seemed then like the ventilator had been switched off on a critically ill ICU patient. Hindustan
Petroleum Corporation bottomed at INR 37 per share in August 2013 and today trades at INR
380 per share. The opportunity to make ten times one’s money in 4 ½ years in a plain vanilla
business like oil refining and marketing is possible only when one has the courage to invest
during times of extreme stress.

The narrative that has permeated the Indian financial sector over the last decade is that private
sector banks are good and that government owned banks are bad. That private sector banks
possess almost invincible superhero lending powers and that government owned banks are
dishonest, lethargic and incompetent. The story that has driven the valuation of private sector
banks through the roof and depressed the valuation of government banks is that private sector
banks are better in all aspects and that they will take market-share away from government owned
banks making them disappear into oblivion. The examples that are usually cited are those of
private telecom operators eating the lunch of government owned operators BSNL and MTNL
and private airlines taking away market share from Air India. While it is true that private sector
banks have been growing and gaining market share and government owned banks have been
losing market share, the above narrative and comparisons are completely false. Banking is a very
different business from telecom and airlines and the incumbents in banking are very strong
despite recent events.

With a multi-billion dollar fraud at Punjab National Bank (PNB) coming to light recently, it is
probably not the best time to say this but Indian government owned banks are not universally
corrupt and not all loans made are influenced by upper management corruption or government
interference. While the autonomy of government owned banks has improved dramatically during
the Modi administration, they were quite independent even under prior administrations. While I
am not a proponent of government ownership of any businesses including banks, privately
owned banks are no panacea for an economy. One must remember that the Global Financial
Crisis was created not by government owned but by privately owned financial institutions and
banks running amok.

India has experienced a severe economic and investment downturn in the previous 7 years. This
has been accompanied by a forced contraction of the economy by long term structural reforms
like GST implemented by the government. In such an environment, any bank with balance sheet
exposure to corporate loans has done poorly. The only banks that have managed to outperform
this contraction phase in the economy are HDFC Bank and Kotak Mahindra bank. There are a
handful of government owned banks like IDBI Bank and Central Bank of India that have done an
excessively poor job of managing their risk exposures, however in aggregate, government owned
banks have not done much worse that privately owned banks. The books of private sector banks
like Yes Bank and IndusInd bank are completely rotten. If a forensic audit of their books was
forced by the regulator, one would discover that both banks rank equal to or worse than IDBI
Bank and Central Bank in their loan books and processes. Private sector banks like Axis Bank
and ICICI Bank are no different from government owned banks except for their larger retail
franchises. Their books are equivalent to that of a State Bank of India or a Bank of Baroda and
they do not deserve a valuation premium over them. Old private sector banks like Karur Vysya
Bank, Karnataka Bank, South Indian Bank and City Union Bank all carry rotten books with
loans that have been discretionarily evergreened and are no different from government owned
banks in their performance.

Can HDFC Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank take over the entire banking system in India in
time? And is there nothing wrong with the government banks in India? The edge that HDFC and
Kotak possess is exactly the mirror image of the weakness in government owned banks. HDFC
and Kotak are nimble and their model is to front run government owned banks. While much
noise has been made about their retail loan franchises, a disproportionate amount of their income
originates from providing high value fee-based services to companies where the fund-based
loans and balance sheet exposure is carried by government owned banks. Even where they have
exposed their balance sheet with fund based loans to companies, they have been quick to exit at
the first sign of trouble. Government owned banks on the other hand, are incredibly slow and
derive almost all their income from fund-based balance sheet lending. Their slow reaction time
has also made them victims of large scale fund diversions by fraudulent entrepreneurs. The
business models of HDFC Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank have their limitations and their
opportunity is finite. As they become larger, the inevitability of fund-based lending by these
banks will become apparent. While they might still do a better job of exposure management than
government owned banks, their economics will change and their loan books will get impacted in
the next contraction cycle.

On the other hand, things are changing quickly and dramatically for government owned banks.
One can state with absolute certainty that government owned banks are now completely
autonomous. One can also state that the severity of the current bad loan cycle and the size of the
frauds and diversions that have come to light in this cycle have made the owner (the
government), the regulator (the RBI) and statutory agencies (the CVC, CBI and ED) and the
management and employees of these banks hyper-vigilant. The likelihood of these things
repeating and especially at the scale witnessed recently is almost zero. The banking sector in
India has been completely empowered with the passing and implementation of the Insolvency &
Bankruptcy Code (IBC). And finally, the mood of the nation and the administration is to undo
the Bank Nationalization Act of 1969 by which the government will be able to bring its
ownership in these banks below 51%. Once that happens, these banks will be free to recruit in
the way that commercially makes sense for them independent from the rules for employment in
government institutions.

Government owned banks are 70% of India’s banking system and this cannot be wished away.
If India has to grow at 8%+ rates, credit in the economy will have to expand and government
owned banks will have to grow. While employees at government owned banks may not be as
well exposed and as driven as those at privately owned banks, they are extremely competent and
understand the business of banking. They have not been empowered, motivated or threatened
and that has made them underperform. One can do adjusted book value calculations and state
that many of these banks are insolvent and therefore should not be bought. This would be grossly
understating the case for these banks. They possess bullet proof liability and low-cost deposit
franchises that have remained unshaken through this downturn due to the perceived sovereign
guarantee behind them. One just needs to speak with IDFC bank to understand how hard it is to
build a liability franchise and how much time it takes. Government owned banks also possess a
deep reach into the economy with their strong branch network and historical relationships with
companies and the general public. This gives them a phenomenal capacity to grow the asset and
lending side of their business profitably. This franchise will become invaluable as India’s
economy expands. One needs to speak with RBL bank to understand how hard it is to build reach
and a strong lending and asset franchise.

I believe that there are more than a few government owned banks that have solid businesses and
are trading at multi-decade lows. These select banks provide phenomenal asymmetries and
opportunities to generate superior returns over the next five years and are worthy of
consideration by investors.

Electronics Manufacturing in India and the Import Conundrum

Indian consumption has grown consistently during the previous two decades and has achieved critical mass in the previous few years. Unfortunately, however, India reduced barriers to external trade much earlier than it reduced barriers to internal trade within the country. As a result, manufacturing in India remained mired in red tape and cascading taxation while its home consumer market was exported away. In some industries like textiles, a combination of low cost labor, factor endowment in cotton and high barriers to imports kept manufacturing in the country whereas in other industries like electronics, the entire market was exported away.

India is a large consumer of electronics and consumption is growing rapidly. It consumes electronics both on the capital as well as the consumer side. India imports almost its entire requirement of telecom equipment, power systems, industrial automation, medical devices, consumer electronics, white goods, brown goods, small appliances etc. etc. It is estimated that by 2020, India’s imports of electronics will exceed its imports of crude oil.

65% of India’s population is directly or indirectly dependent on agriculture. India urgently needs to move people off the farm and needs to create jobs in manufacturing and services for them. Electronics manufacturing is a large potential employment generator for the country. However, there are several challenges in making this happen. The biggest problem is that labor forms a very small part of the value addition in most electronics. The flood of electronics imports into the Indian market resulted in the closure of almost all electronics manufacturers and therefore in the closure of their entire component vendor ecosystem. Today, India does not make any electronic components or parts. The second problem is that the engineering skills and capabilities required for electronic product development and manufacturing has been lost in the country. An entire generation has not been trained in the skill-sets needed for the electronics industry. While these skill-sets are not rocket science, training in them will take time and will require the overcoming of a high level of inertia. Finally, the capital intensity combined with high rate of technological obsolescence of several core components like semiconductors, displays, photovoltaic cells, lithium cells etc. will require that the barriers to imports and profitability of manufacturing are large enough to justify the investment.

The implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) is likely to be a big catalyst in the emergence of the electronics manufacturing industry in India. The elimination of inter-state distortions and the creation of a single national market have put Indian manufacturing on a level playing field with imports.  However, to give capital allocators the incentive to invest in an electronics manufacturing ecosystem in India, the market will require some protection. There is a very large and powerful electronics consumer lobby in India. The opportunity is ripe for the government to ignore the lobby and to put a material progressive import duty regime that becomes higher as the value addition in a potential imported item increases. This will first ensure that finished product imports into the country come to a halt. Once a large enough universe of assemblers / box builders emerges, demand for components in India will reach critical mass and it will become viable for components to be manufactured in the country. The emergence of a component ecosystem will make Indian manufactured electronics so competitive that the emergence of an Indian electronics export industry will become inevitable. It is possible that some very low return and high capital intensity components like semiconductors that require a global market may never be made in India. However, that may not be the worst thing in the world. India should always remain a capital disciplined economy and compete on merits and capabilities rather than capital destroying distortions.

The future of manufacturing is shifting from mechanical to electronic whether in electric vehicles, autonomous cars, industrial automation or 3D printing. It appears that the Indian government is seized of this opportunity and that it is working on putting the necessary policies in place. Once this juggernaut gets started, it will become unstoppable. Electronics manufacturing in India is a space worth watching.