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Perspectives

And the Gold Stocks Bear Marches On AKA VK’s Last Blog Post Here

Please note this will be my last blog post at this website. Our investor base tells us that an India Fund and a Gold Fund have nothing to do with one another, and that the marketing message is too confusing. We more or less agreed, and are in the process of separating the two funds […]

Another Bear Leg for Gold Stocks?

Conventional thinking within the gold community is June/July 2013 marked the lows, and the sector is on the verge of a major bull run. Our work is clearly showing the June/July lows will be meaningfully violated, and this bear is far from over. If our outlook prevails over the conventional thinking, then we shall see […]

Step 2: June/July Lows Must Hold

In our July 15, 2013 post, we scribed, “The next step for gold stocks is to stop its free fall, followed by base building action.” Gold stocks have now rebounded approximately 35% from its lows, and as far as we are concerned, the arrest of free fall followed by a base building phase, aka Step […]

North Dakota Oil Boom Through Eyes of a Stripper

Wildcatting: A Stripper’s Guide to the Modern American Boomtown Nothing is more emblematic of the American dream than chaotic mining and drilling towns such as Williston, North Dakota, and the people who flock to them in search of fortune. And no one knows better how these communities work  - and don’t – than the travelling […]

Recognizing the End of the Chinese Economic Miracle by George Friedman

When it comes to geopolitics, nobody is better than Stratfor’s George Friedman. “Recognizing the End of the Chinese Economic Miracle” is republished below with permission of Stratfor. Recognizing the End of the Chinese Economic Miracle By George Friedman Major shifts underway in the Chinese economy that Stratfor has forecast and discussed for years have now drawn […]

First step for gold stocks: stop going down

We see the Q2 2013 crash (about -40%) in gold stocks, following two years (April 2011-March 2013) of share price erosion (also about -40%) as classic capitulation, and ending action of a severe bear market. Analysts will now tell us all the reasons gold stocks can trade yet lower, just as they explained why gold […]

Gold Miner Cost Structure Out of Line

With the price of gold plunging in recent weeks/months, the gold mining industry and its analysts are trying to get a handle on what is the real cost (includes sustaining capital requirements) of producing an ounce of gold. Consensus is putting the industry average all in cost somewhere between $1100-$1200, and so at current gold […]

Market is Wrong About Gold Stocks

Markets usually get it about right. But sometimes they get it very wrong. Gross mispricings happen when investors herd in one direction. This is why we said “Gold at $1,800 is a fool’s bet” in August 24, 2011. Now we are seeing investors fleeing out of gold shares. If we invert the chart above, it is […]

Finance Bigger Today than in 2007

This multi-decade chart of financial profits as a percentage of GDP makes clear the big winner of the last thirty plus years has been Wall Street. This same chart also shows 1998 (post Long Term Capital Management blow up) – 2007 (pre Financial Crisis of 2008) was particularly lucrative for Finance. And the final takeaway […]

Brands Are So Last Year

Some investors have a penchant for brand businesses. I suppose because well managed successful brands tend to sport the best business metrics, specifically Profit Margin, Return on Assets and Return on Equity. These same businesses also tend to be relatively expensive as measured by Price to Book. I don’t believe there is anything inherently superior […]

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