Conventional thinking within the gold community is June/July 2013 marked the lows, and the sector is on the verge of a major bull run. Our work is clearly showing the June/July lows will be meaningfully violated, and this bear is far from over. If our outlook prevails over the conventional thinking, then we shall see [...]
In our July 15, 2013 post, we scribed, “The next step for gold stocks is to stop its free fall, followed by base building action.” Gold stocks have now rebounded approximately 35% from its lows, and as far as we are concerned, the arrest of free fall followed by a base building phase, aka Step [...]
Wildcatting: A Stripper’s Guide to the Modern American Boomtown
Nothing is more emblematic of the American dream than chaotic mining and drilling towns such as Williston, North Dakota, and the people who flock to them in search of fortune. And no one knows better how these communities work - and don’t – than the travelling topless [...]
We see the Q2 2013 crash (about -40%) in gold stocks, following two years (April 2011-March 2013) of share price erosion (also about -40%) as classic capitulation, and ending action of a severe bear market. Analysts will now tell us all the reasons gold stocks can trade yet lower, just as they explained why gold [...]
With the price of gold plunging in recent weeks/months, the gold mining industry and its analysts are trying to get a handle on what is the real cost (includes sustaining capital requirements) of producing an ounce of gold. Consensus is putting the industry average all in cost somewhere between $1100-$1200, and so at current gold [...]
Markets usually get it about right. But sometimes they get it very wrong. Gross mispricings happen when investors herd in one direction. This is why we said ”Gold at $1,800 is a fool’s bet” in August 24, 2011.
Now we are seeing investors fleeing out of gold shares.
If we invert the chart above, it is easier to [...]
This multi-decade chart of financial profits as a percentage of GDP makes clear the big winner of the last thirty plus years has been Wall Street. This same chart also shows 1998 (post Long Term Capital Management blow up) – 2007 (pre Financial Crisis of 2008) was particularly lucrative for Finance. And the final takeaway [...]
Some investors have a penchant for brand businesses. I suppose because well managed successful brands tend to sport the best business metrics, specifically Profit Margin, Return on Assets and Return on Equity. These same businesses also tend to be relatively expensive as measured by Price to Book.
I don’t believe there is anything inherently superior about [...]
Eight out of ten times after I buy a stock, it falls in price and ten out of ten times after I sell a stock, it rises in price. Value investors operate under the premise that Mr.Market’s assessment of value of a company is wrong and that he is pricing the company higher or lower [...]
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