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	<title>Atyant Capital</title>
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	<link>http://atyantcapital.com</link>
	<description>Expertise in Emerging Market Investments</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Tue, 15 May 2012 08:34:07 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>Occasional Monsoon Failures Are Necessary</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/india/occasional-monsoon-failures-are-necessary/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/india/occasional-monsoon-failures-are-necessary/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 15 May 2012 08:34:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>rahul</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3780</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Indian agriculture is disproportionately dependent on the monsoon rains that arrive between June and September every year.  The Indian government, despite years of lip service, has not built adequate irrigation infrastructure to reduce the dependence of the country on the monsoon rains.

India has had two good years of rains in 2010 and 2011.  The deficient [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[Indian agriculture is disproportionately dependent on the monsoon rains that arrive between June and September every year.  The Indian government, despite years of lip service, has not built adequate irrigation infrastructure to reduce the dependence of the country on the monsoon rains.

India has had two good years of rains in 2010 and 2011.  The deficient monsoon in 2009 was not a complete drought.  The last severe countrywide drought was in 2001 and 2002.

Failure of the monsoon has a direct bearing on India's GDP.  El Nino weather patterns have usually not been friendly to the monsoons and the severest droughts in India have occurred during El Nino systems in the pacific ocean.  It also seems that Murphy's law works and when it rains it pours (no pun intended).

2012 is shaping up to be a severe El Nino year and India's GDP is likely to clock a 6% growth rate without a monsoon failure.  My hunch (without scientific basis or crystal ball gazing) is that India could have a severe monsoon failure this year.  A monsoon failure will make Indian GDP growth clock a 5% number.  This will make all politicians and economists see the bogey-man.

However, in my view, occasional monsoon failures are essential for the sustenance of Indian agriculture, just like forest fires are essential for the health of the forest.

There are several things that an occasional monsoon failure achieves:

- It gives the top soil rest and gives it time to rebuild its nutrient content and thereby to rebuild its crop yielding capability.  In the absence of monsoon failure, farmers over-work their land.

- It creates agricultural cyclicality that otherwise the free market would have to create.

- It prevents the terms of trade of agriculture from deteriorating rapidly.

- It sends a strong message to the government, via the electorate, to move and take action toward building non monsoon dependent irrigation infrastructure.

- It helps the government of India to empty its granaries and prevents valuable grain from rotting.  In 2011, India had record foodgrain output of 253 million tonnes.  The central government is carrying food grain stocks of 71 million tonnes.  These are the highest stocks ever.  The previous record of 62.5 million tonnes was set prior to the drought in 2001-2002.

- It forces people off the land and makes agriculture more productive (perversely) and more profitable for the survivors.  65% of India's population lives in villages and depends directly or indirectly on agriculture.  This makes poverty fester as agriculture cannot generate higher standard of living for such a large number of people.

Therefore in my view, occasional monsoon failures are necessary and good for the long term health of the economy.

In the interim, the outlook for Indian GDP growth looks dire.  I once again state on record that the governor of Reserve Bank of India is drinking the wrong monetary economics Kool-Aid and needs to reduce interest rates in a big way, quickly.]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Rahul Saraogi on The Manual of Ideas</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/tracking-rahul/rahul-saragoi-on-the-manual-of-ideas/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/tracking-rahul/rahul-saragoi-on-the-manual-of-ideas/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 02 May 2012 20:09:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Pratik Sharma</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3754</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In his interview with Oliver Mihaljevic of The Manual of Ideas, Rahul talks about his approach to investing and how it applies to Indian Markets. A world class publication The Manual of Ideas is used by the who’s who of the international investment community.

]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[In his interview with Oliver Mihaljevic of <a href="www.manualofideas.com" target="_blank">The Manual of Ideas,</a> Rahul talks about his approach to investing and how it applies to Indian Markets. A world class publication The Manual of Ideas is used by the who’s who of the international investment community.

<iframe width="640" height="360" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/kZBWZd_zB8w" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://atyantcapital.com/tracking-rahul/rahul-saragoi-on-the-manual-of-ideas/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Live Tweeting From Omaha</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/india/live-tweeting-from-omaha/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/india/live-tweeting-from-omaha/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 01 May 2012 13:59:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>rahul</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3751</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I am going to be at the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting in Omaha this Saturday, 5th May.  I will tweet my thoughts live from the event.  You can follow me at http://twitter.com/#!/RahulSaraogi

If you are going to be in Omaha and want to connect, reach out to me.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[I am going to be at the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting in Omaha this Saturday, 5th May.  I will tweet my thoughts live from the event.  You can follow me at <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/RahulSaraogi">http://twitter.com/#!/RahulSaraogi</a>

If you are going to be in Omaha and want to connect, reach out to me.]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>2</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Building on the Lessons of Poker Great Amarillo Slim</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/asset-management-industry/building-on-the-lessons-of-poker-great-amarillo-slim/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/asset-management-industry/building-on-the-lessons-of-poker-great-amarillo-slim/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 24 Apr 2012 15:10:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>vedant</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3736</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Amarillo Slim was a great poker player and his three keys to playing the game well apply equally to navigating the markets successfully; you need 1) know the 60/40 end of a proposition 2) use risk management and 3) know thyself.

Know thyself has to do with psychology and the mental game. As the saying goes, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[Amarillo Slim was a great poker player and his three keys to playing the game well apply equally to navigating the markets successfully; you need 1) know the 60/40 end of a proposition 2) use risk management and 3) know thyself.

Know thyself has to do with psychology and the mental game. As the saying goes, "Everyone has a plan, until they get punched in the face" and so keys 1 and 2 are all well and good, but are you going to be able to employ them real time?

This past year, my friend taught me the concept of being centered. He says my job is to make good, unemotional decisions and you cannot do that if you are not centered. I have found for me to be centered, I need to put myself in a position so that I do not fear, nor hope for any particular outcome. I want to be able to come into work each and every single day and either be opening positions, closing them or doing nothing based all on my predefined rules. This requires me to predefine all potential scenarios and develop a plan of action for each given scenario. Operating in this manner has allowed me to neither fear, nor hope for any particular outcome, but just unemotionally execute on my predetermined plan.]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://atyantcapital.com/asset-management-industry/building-on-the-lessons-of-poker-great-amarillo-slim/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Ivanhoe&#8217;s Rights Offering is a Role Model</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/precious-metals/ivanhoes-rights-offering-is-a-role-model/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/precious-metals/ivanhoes-rights-offering-is-a-role-model/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 22 Apr 2012 18:10:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>vedant</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global & US]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Precious Metals]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3731</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Last week, Ivanhoe Mines (NYSE: IVN) announced an .8 billion rights offering as part of a Rio Tinto (NYSE: RIO) supported project finance package to transition Ivanhoe's Oyu Tolgoi copper/gold project into a Rio Tinto major mining operation. All existing Ivanhoe shareholders (which includes Rio Tinto at 51% and Ivanhoe CEO/Founder Robert Friedland at 10+%) [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[Last week, Ivanhoe Mines (NYSE: IVN) announced an .8 billion rights offering as part of a Rio Tinto (NYSE: RIO) supported project finance package to transition Ivanhoe's Oyu Tolgoi copper/gold project into a Rio Tinto major mining operation. All existing Ivanhoe shareholders (which includes Rio Tinto at 51% and Ivanhoe CEO/Founder Robert Friedland at 10+%) will be able to participate on an equal, proportional basis in purchasing additional common shares of IVN at a subscription price of C.34 (current market price C.65).

Other Canadian mining companies, are you taking note? Instead of your bought deals and private placements, how about equity financing with the more shareholder friendly rights offerings? With rights offerings, existing shareholders can avoid having their stakes diluted regardless of how low you price the financing. In a tough market such as now, you can sweeten the deal with the subscription price at a discount to market price and free trading rights. Required of you would be better planning, more paperwork and saying no to the banker offering you seemingly easy cash.]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://atyantcapital.com/precious-metals/ivanhoes-rights-offering-is-a-role-model/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Making Time Your Enemy</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/india/making-time-your-enemy/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/india/making-time-your-enemy/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Apr 2012 08:49:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>rahul</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3728</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I've always maintained that to be a successful investor, one has to make time a friend and not an enemy.  There are innumerable potential opportunities in life where we know the eventual outcome but we don't know when the outcome will take place.  Such situations are not risky but uncertain.

Of all the places in the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[I've always maintained that to be a successful investor, one has to make time a friend and not an enemy.  There are innumerable potential opportunities in life where we know the eventual outcome but we don't know when the outcome will take place.  Such situations are not risky but uncertain.

Of all the places in the world, India excels at the art of creating uncertainty in know outcomes.  Even things that seem absolutely imminent can suddenly become uncertain.

There are many ways of making time an enemy including things like leverage.  However, one can make time an enemy with something as basic as one's structure, setup and approach to investing.

Many global capital allocators in areas including venture capital, private equity and hedge funds became enamored by India in recent years and setup large establishments in India.  They hired star fund managers and recruited associates and analysts at top dollar salaries.  They ruined  the market for high quality secretaries and prime office space in Mumbai and Delhi by outbidding incumbents.  They replicated their IT systems and security policies and transportation policies and almost everything else from their offices in New York, London and Hong Kong.

This in my opinion has become a ticking time bomb for them  because they have made time a terrible enemy.  To justify their establishment expenses, they are desperate to deploy capital in India.  However, when the environment becomes non-conducive and remains so for an extended period of time, their frustrations start to build up.  This recent article on <a href="http://tinyurl.com/6un48or">DE Shaw's plan to downsize its India operation</a> (<a href="http://tinyurl.com/6un48or">http://tinyurl.com/6un48or</a>) is only one of many such that I've read in recent times.

The other end of the spectrum are allocators who believe that India is not a significant opportunity and don't provide any dedicated resources to India.  They execute their India exposure using teams sitting in New York, London or Singapore and make it part of their Asia ex-Japan pools.  While there is no time horizon mismatch there, I think that is a terrible way to invest in India.

So what is the right approach?  In my opinion, it is essential to have a team with ears and feet on the ground in India to invest successfully in India.  It is imperative that the <em>key decision maker</em> be based in India.  There is no way that someone who lives outside India for 182 days in a year can successfully invest based on "research" generated by their India investment teams.  However, it is also essential that the team in India be kept very simple and rudimentary.

To make time a friend, it is essential that the capital allocator be willing to hang around in India doing nothing for several years and not feel the pressure to <em>make something happen</em>.

This probably sounds like I am talking my book.  I am.  However, it is important to keep in mind that we've structured our operations the way we have because we believe in what I've highlighted above and not the other way around.]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://atyantcapital.com/india/making-time-your-enemy/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Best Return/Risk Profiles in Project Finance</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/precious-metals/best-returnrisk-profiles-in-project-finance/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/precious-metals/best-returnrisk-profiles-in-project-finance/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 15 Apr 2012 18:16:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>vedant</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global & US]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Precious Metals]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3705</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Over the last three years, many pools of capital a.k.a private funds have formed for the specific purpose of investing in real estate, as well as credit situations. I argue that when large pools of competing capital exist to target a certain sector, the potential returns for those given set of opportunities are merely within [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[Over the last three years, many pools of capital a.k.a private funds have formed for the specific purpose of investing in real estate, as well as credit situations. I argue that when large pools of competing capital exist to target a certain sector, the potential returns for those given set of opportunities are merely within the ballpark of risk adjusted market returns.

The area where funding completely shut down and little has formed as a replacement to date, is Project Finance. Nobody wants, and even fewer have the wherewithal, to fund large scale, long term, non cash flowing until completion projects. And precisely for this reason, we are seeing the most outstanding return/risk profiles here.

Now I don't see funds forming in a meaningful way to take advantage of present circumstances any time soon. This is in great part due to a general decline in risk appetite as well as sophisticated capital sticking to its knitting. Real estate people are staying in real estate, tech people in tech and widget people in widgets. This leaves industries to internally generate and accrue cash flow for the purposes of financing these longer term project opportunities.]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Transformational Impact Of The US Energy Boom</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/india/transformational-impact-of-the-us-energy-boom/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/india/transformational-impact-of-the-us-energy-boom/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Apr 2012 18:09:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>rahul</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global & US]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3702</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[When the history of the twenty first century is written, one of the defining aspects that will be written about will be the invention/discovery of hydraulic fracking, horizontal drilling and the commercial exploitation of shale gas and shale oil.

It is unfortunate that the discovery of something so transformational has happened in the depths of the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[When the history of the twenty first century is written, one of the defining aspects that will be written about will be the invention/discovery of hydraulic fracking, horizontal drilling and the commercial exploitation of shale gas and shale oil.

It is unfortunate that the discovery of something so transformational has happened in the depths of the biggest economic and financial market slumps in a century.  It is the nature of the present environment that prevents us from fully appreciating the impact of what has happened.

The population of the world recently touched 7 billion and if projections are to be believed, the world will have a population of 9 billion by the year 2050.  The Economist newspaper published a special report last year called <em><a href="http://www.economist.com/node/18200618">The 9 billion people question</a> </em>(http://www.economist.com/node/18200618).

The two things that are needed for the planet to sustain 9 billion people and to offer them increasingly higher standards of living are food and fresh water.  If we have sufficient and affordable energy, these two problems are solved.

While the world has become concerned about its carbon footprint and there has been a previously unimagined level of government focus on green energy and subsidies to encourage it, I believe that commercially affordable and ubiquitous green energy is at least 50 years away.  However, the discovery of affordable shale gas and shale oil gives us the window required to sustain higher standards of living for a world population headed to 9 billion even as we work on perfecting the economics and utilization of green energy.

I believe that the world is on the precipice of a gas and oil boom with the US at the forefront.  The next big thing is still going to come from the US.  No, it will not be web 4.0, it will be <em>conventional energy.</em>]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>It Is All About The Soft Infrastructure</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/india/it-is-all-about-the-soft-infrastructure/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/india/it-is-all-about-the-soft-infrastructure/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Apr 2012 17:45:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>rahul</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3696</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The period from 2007 to 2008 was unique in many ways.  In the midst of a big increase in oil prices, food prices had started sky-rocketing.  As the food versus fuel debate was raging, the world became concerned with its ability to produce enough food in the future.

While the Malthusian concerns were at their peak, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[The period from 2007 to 2008 was unique in many ways.  In the midst of a big increase in oil prices, food prices had started sky-rocketing.  As the food versus fuel debate was raging, the world became concerned with its ability to produce enough food in the future.

While the Malthusian concerns were at their peak, African countries like Madagascar and Ethiopia opened up huge tracts of land in their countries to foreigners for farming.  One of my contentions at the time was that land does not grow food, people do.

Karuturi Global, one of the largest producers of roses in the world was smitten by the bug of agricultural colonization of Africa.

What happened subsequently is detailed in this <a href="http://tinyurl.com/7ghm76f">article from Business Today magazine</a> (http://tinyurl.com/7ghm76f).

My biggest takeaway from this article is that wealth is always created by human beings and not by hard assets, raw materials and factors of production.  Wealth is created by the know-how, ingenuity and execution ability of humans.  The embodiment of the above attributes are the institutions (companies, regulators, courts, universities etc. etc.) or the <em>soft infrastructure</em> of an economy.  That is why I believe that equities have been and will continue to remain the most powerful engines of wealth creation.

The world is smitten by physical infrastructure and the power and might they project.  I contend that in the absence (or during breakdown) of soft infrastructure, physical infrastructure is absolutely useless.  History has demonstrated this repeatedly.

The starkest display of this was right after the collapse of the Soviet Union.  This was visually depicted in the Nicolas Cage movie <em>Lord Of War, </em>in which arms dealer Yuri Orlov smuggled arms out of leaderless warehouses full of state of the art weapons after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

When Argentina's government defaulted on its external debt in 2001 and the banking system seized up, things came to a complete standstill.

We recently saw things completely come to a standstill in Egypt.  It is  anyone's guess how and when things will even return just to the state  that existed before the Arab Spring revolution.

If anyone has visited a state of the art factory or office building that has been mothballed because its owner filed for bankruptcy and could not fund it, he or she knows what I am talking about.

This is the biggest reason why I am bullish about the US economy and why I believe that the 21st century will be the American century.  As much as Americans complain about the breakdown in the economy and the problems the economy faces because of the country's fractured politics and its indebtedness, the US has some the biggest, best and strongest (relatively) institutions in the world.

The US has the best <em>soft infrastructure</em> in the world and there is no country that it is even remotely in competition with the US.

<strong>
</strong>]]></content:encoded>
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		</item>
		<item>
		<title>It Does Not Have To Be Exciting</title>
	<atom:link href="http://atyantcapital.com/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://atyantcapital.com</link>
	<description>Expertise in Emerging Market Investments</description>
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		<title>Atyant Capital</title>
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	<link>http://atyantcapital.com</link>
	<description>Expertise in Emerging Market Investments</description>
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		<title>Occasional Monsoon Failures Are Necessary</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/india/occasional-monsoon-failures-are-necessary/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/india/occasional-monsoon-failures-are-necessary/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 15 May 2012 08:34:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>rahul</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3780</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Indian agriculture is disproportionately dependent on the monsoon rains that arrive between June and September every year.  The Indian government, despite years of lip service, has not built adequate irrigation infrastructure to reduce the dependence of the country on the monsoon rains.

India has had two good years of rains in 2010 and 2011.  The deficient [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[Indian agriculture is disproportionately dependent on the monsoon rains that arrive between June and September every year.  The Indian government, despite years of lip service, has not built adequate irrigation infrastructure to reduce the dependence of the country on the monsoon rains.

India has had two good years of rains in 2010 and 2011.  The deficient monsoon in 2009 was not a complete drought.  The last severe countrywide drought was in 2001 and 2002.

Failure of the monsoon has a direct bearing on India's GDP.  El Nino weather patterns have usually not been friendly to the monsoons and the severest droughts in India have occurred during El Nino systems in the pacific ocean.  It also seems that Murphy's law works and when it rains it pours (no pun intended).

2012 is shaping up to be a severe El Nino year and India's GDP is likely to clock a 6% growth rate without a monsoon failure.  My hunch (without scientific basis or crystal ball gazing) is that India could have a severe monsoon failure this year.  A monsoon failure will make Indian GDP growth clock a 5% number.  This will make all politicians and economists see the bogey-man.

However, in my view, occasional monsoon failures are essential for the sustenance of Indian agriculture, just like forest fires are essential for the health of the forest.

There are several things that an occasional monsoon failure achieves:

- It gives the top soil rest and gives it time to rebuild its nutrient content and thereby to rebuild its crop yielding capability.  In the absence of monsoon failure, farmers over-work their land.

- It creates agricultural cyclicality that otherwise the free market would have to create.

- It prevents the terms of trade of agriculture from deteriorating rapidly.

- It sends a strong message to the government, via the electorate, to move and take action toward building non monsoon dependent irrigation infrastructure.

- It helps the government of India to empty its granaries and prevents valuable grain from rotting.  In 2011, India had record foodgrain output of 253 million tonnes.  The central government is carrying food grain stocks of 71 million tonnes.  These are the highest stocks ever.  The previous record of 62.5 million tonnes was set prior to the drought in 2001-2002.

- It forces people off the land and makes agriculture more productive (perversely) and more profitable for the survivors.  65% of India's population lives in villages and depends directly or indirectly on agriculture.  This makes poverty fester as agriculture cannot generate higher standard of living for such a large number of people.

Therefore in my view, occasional monsoon failures are necessary and good for the long term health of the economy.

In the interim, the outlook for Indian GDP growth looks dire.  I once again state on record that the governor of Reserve Bank of India is drinking the wrong monetary economics Kool-Aid and needs to reduce interest rates in a big way, quickly.]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://atyantcapital.com/india/occasional-monsoon-failures-are-necessary/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
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		<item>
		<title>Rahul Saraogi on The Manual of Ideas</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/tracking-rahul/rahul-saragoi-on-the-manual-of-ideas/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/tracking-rahul/rahul-saragoi-on-the-manual-of-ideas/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 02 May 2012 20:09:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Pratik Sharma</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3754</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In his interview with Oliver Mihaljevic of The Manual of Ideas, Rahul talks about his approach to investing and how it applies to Indian Markets. A world class publication The Manual of Ideas is used by the who’s who of the international investment community.

]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[In his interview with Oliver Mihaljevic of <a href="www.manualofideas.com" target="_blank">The Manual of Ideas,</a> Rahul talks about his approach to investing and how it applies to Indian Markets. A world class publication The Manual of Ideas is used by the who’s who of the international investment community.

<iframe width="640" height="360" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/kZBWZd_zB8w" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://atyantcapital.com/tracking-rahul/rahul-saragoi-on-the-manual-of-ideas/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
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		<item>
		<title>Live Tweeting From Omaha</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/india/live-tweeting-from-omaha/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/india/live-tweeting-from-omaha/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 01 May 2012 13:59:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>rahul</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3751</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I am going to be at the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting in Omaha this Saturday, 5th May.  I will tweet my thoughts live from the event.  You can follow me at http://twitter.com/#!/RahulSaraogi

If you are going to be in Omaha and want to connect, reach out to me.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[I am going to be at the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting in Omaha this Saturday, 5th May.  I will tweet my thoughts live from the event.  You can follow me at <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/RahulSaraogi">http://twitter.com/#!/RahulSaraogi</a>

If you are going to be in Omaha and want to connect, reach out to me.]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>2</slash:comments>
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		<title>Building on the Lessons of Poker Great Amarillo Slim</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/asset-management-industry/building-on-the-lessons-of-poker-great-amarillo-slim/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/asset-management-industry/building-on-the-lessons-of-poker-great-amarillo-slim/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 24 Apr 2012 15:10:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>vedant</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3736</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Amarillo Slim was a great poker player and his three keys to playing the game well apply equally to navigating the markets successfully; you need 1) know the 60/40 end of a proposition 2) use risk management and 3) know thyself.

Know thyself has to do with psychology and the mental game. As the saying goes, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[Amarillo Slim was a great poker player and his three keys to playing the game well apply equally to navigating the markets successfully; you need 1) know the 60/40 end of a proposition 2) use risk management and 3) know thyself.

Know thyself has to do with psychology and the mental game. As the saying goes, "Everyone has a plan, until they get punched in the face" and so keys 1 and 2 are all well and good, but are you going to be able to employ them real time?

This past year, my friend taught me the concept of being centered. He says my job is to make good, unemotional decisions and you cannot do that if you are not centered. I have found for me to be centered, I need to put myself in a position so that I do not fear, nor hope for any particular outcome. I want to be able to come into work each and every single day and either be opening positions, closing them or doing nothing based all on my predefined rules. This requires me to predefine all potential scenarios and develop a plan of action for each given scenario. Operating in this manner has allowed me to neither fear, nor hope for any particular outcome, but just unemotionally execute on my predetermined plan.]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://atyantcapital.com/asset-management-industry/building-on-the-lessons-of-poker-great-amarillo-slim/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Ivanhoe&#8217;s Rights Offering is a Role Model</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/precious-metals/ivanhoes-rights-offering-is-a-role-model/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/precious-metals/ivanhoes-rights-offering-is-a-role-model/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 22 Apr 2012 18:10:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>vedant</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global & US]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Precious Metals]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3731</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Last week, Ivanhoe Mines (NYSE: IVN) announced an .8 billion rights offering as part of a Rio Tinto (NYSE: RIO) supported project finance package to transition Ivanhoe's Oyu Tolgoi copper/gold project into a Rio Tinto major mining operation. All existing Ivanhoe shareholders (which includes Rio Tinto at 51% and Ivanhoe CEO/Founder Robert Friedland at 10+%) [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[Last week, Ivanhoe Mines (NYSE: IVN) announced an .8 billion rights offering as part of a Rio Tinto (NYSE: RIO) supported project finance package to transition Ivanhoe's Oyu Tolgoi copper/gold project into a Rio Tinto major mining operation. All existing Ivanhoe shareholders (which includes Rio Tinto at 51% and Ivanhoe CEO/Founder Robert Friedland at 10+%) will be able to participate on an equal, proportional basis in purchasing additional common shares of IVN at a subscription price of C.34 (current market price C.65).

Other Canadian mining companies, are you taking note? Instead of your bought deals and private placements, how about equity financing with the more shareholder friendly rights offerings? With rights offerings, existing shareholders can avoid having their stakes diluted regardless of how low you price the financing. In a tough market such as now, you can sweeten the deal with the subscription price at a discount to market price and free trading rights. Required of you would be better planning, more paperwork and saying no to the banker offering you seemingly easy cash.]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
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		<item>
		<title>Making Time Your Enemy</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/india/making-time-your-enemy/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/india/making-time-your-enemy/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Apr 2012 08:49:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>rahul</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3728</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I've always maintained that to be a successful investor, one has to make time a friend and not an enemy.  There are innumerable potential opportunities in life where we know the eventual outcome but we don't know when the outcome will take place.  Such situations are not risky but uncertain.

Of all the places in the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[I've always maintained that to be a successful investor, one has to make time a friend and not an enemy.  There are innumerable potential opportunities in life where we know the eventual outcome but we don't know when the outcome will take place.  Such situations are not risky but uncertain.

Of all the places in the world, India excels at the art of creating uncertainty in know outcomes.  Even things that seem absolutely imminent can suddenly become uncertain.

There are many ways of making time an enemy including things like leverage.  However, one can make time an enemy with something as basic as one's structure, setup and approach to investing.

Many global capital allocators in areas including venture capital, private equity and hedge funds became enamored by India in recent years and setup large establishments in India.  They hired star fund managers and recruited associates and analysts at top dollar salaries.  They ruined  the market for high quality secretaries and prime office space in Mumbai and Delhi by outbidding incumbents.  They replicated their IT systems and security policies and transportation policies and almost everything else from their offices in New York, London and Hong Kong.

This in my opinion has become a ticking time bomb for them  because they have made time a terrible enemy.  To justify their establishment expenses, they are desperate to deploy capital in India.  However, when the environment becomes non-conducive and remains so for an extended period of time, their frustrations start to build up.  This recent article on <a href="http://tinyurl.com/6un48or">DE Shaw's plan to downsize its India operation</a> (<a href="http://tinyurl.com/6un48or">http://tinyurl.com/6un48or</a>) is only one of many such that I've read in recent times.

The other end of the spectrum are allocators who believe that India is not a significant opportunity and don't provide any dedicated resources to India.  They execute their India exposure using teams sitting in New York, London or Singapore and make it part of their Asia ex-Japan pools.  While there is no time horizon mismatch there, I think that is a terrible way to invest in India.

So what is the right approach?  In my opinion, it is essential to have a team with ears and feet on the ground in India to invest successfully in India.  It is imperative that the <em>key decision maker</em> be based in India.  There is no way that someone who lives outside India for 182 days in a year can successfully invest based on "research" generated by their India investment teams.  However, it is also essential that the team in India be kept very simple and rudimentary.

To make time a friend, it is essential that the capital allocator be willing to hang around in India doing nothing for several years and not feel the pressure to <em>make something happen</em>.

This probably sounds like I am talking my book.  I am.  However, it is important to keep in mind that we've structured our operations the way we have because we believe in what I've highlighted above and not the other way around.]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
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		<item>
		<title>Best Return/Risk Profiles in Project Finance</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/precious-metals/best-returnrisk-profiles-in-project-finance/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/precious-metals/best-returnrisk-profiles-in-project-finance/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 15 Apr 2012 18:16:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>vedant</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global & US]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Precious Metals]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3705</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Over the last three years, many pools of capital a.k.a private funds have formed for the specific purpose of investing in real estate, as well as credit situations. I argue that when large pools of competing capital exist to target a certain sector, the potential returns for those given set of opportunities are merely within [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[Over the last three years, many pools of capital a.k.a private funds have formed for the specific purpose of investing in real estate, as well as credit situations. I argue that when large pools of competing capital exist to target a certain sector, the potential returns for those given set of opportunities are merely within the ballpark of risk adjusted market returns.

The area where funding completely shut down and little has formed as a replacement to date, is Project Finance. Nobody wants, and even fewer have the wherewithal, to fund large scale, long term, non cash flowing until completion projects. And precisely for this reason, we are seeing the most outstanding return/risk profiles here.

Now I don't see funds forming in a meaningful way to take advantage of present circumstances any time soon. This is in great part due to a general decline in risk appetite as well as sophisticated capital sticking to its knitting. Real estate people are staying in real estate, tech people in tech and widget people in widgets. This leaves industries to internally generate and accrue cash flow for the purposes of financing these longer term project opportunities.]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Transformational Impact Of The US Energy Boom</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/india/transformational-impact-of-the-us-energy-boom/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/india/transformational-impact-of-the-us-energy-boom/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Apr 2012 18:09:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>rahul</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global & US]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3702</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[When the history of the twenty first century is written, one of the defining aspects that will be written about will be the invention/discovery of hydraulic fracking, horizontal drilling and the commercial exploitation of shale gas and shale oil.

It is unfortunate that the discovery of something so transformational has happened in the depths of the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[When the history of the twenty first century is written, one of the defining aspects that will be written about will be the invention/discovery of hydraulic fracking, horizontal drilling and the commercial exploitation of shale gas and shale oil.

It is unfortunate that the discovery of something so transformational has happened in the depths of the biggest economic and financial market slumps in a century.  It is the nature of the present environment that prevents us from fully appreciating the impact of what has happened.

The population of the world recently touched 7 billion and if projections are to be believed, the world will have a population of 9 billion by the year 2050.  The Economist newspaper published a special report last year called <em><a href="http://www.economist.com/node/18200618">The 9 billion people question</a> </em>(http://www.economist.com/node/18200618).

The two things that are needed for the planet to sustain 9 billion people and to offer them increasingly higher standards of living are food and fresh water.  If we have sufficient and affordable energy, these two problems are solved.

While the world has become concerned about its carbon footprint and there has been a previously unimagined level of government focus on green energy and subsidies to encourage it, I believe that commercially affordable and ubiquitous green energy is at least 50 years away.  However, the discovery of affordable shale gas and shale oil gives us the window required to sustain higher standards of living for a world population headed to 9 billion even as we work on perfecting the economics and utilization of green energy.

I believe that the world is on the precipice of a gas and oil boom with the US at the forefront.  The next big thing is still going to come from the US.  No, it will not be web 4.0, it will be <em>conventional energy.</em>]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
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		<item>
		<title>It Is All About The Soft Infrastructure</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/india/it-is-all-about-the-soft-infrastructure/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/india/it-is-all-about-the-soft-infrastructure/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Apr 2012 17:45:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>rahul</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3696</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The period from 2007 to 2008 was unique in many ways.  In the midst of a big increase in oil prices, food prices had started sky-rocketing.  As the food versus fuel debate was raging, the world became concerned with its ability to produce enough food in the future.

While the Malthusian concerns were at their peak, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[The period from 2007 to 2008 was unique in many ways.  In the midst of a big increase in oil prices, food prices had started sky-rocketing.  As the food versus fuel debate was raging, the world became concerned with its ability to produce enough food in the future.

While the Malthusian concerns were at their peak, African countries like Madagascar and Ethiopia opened up huge tracts of land in their countries to foreigners for farming.  One of my contentions at the time was that land does not grow food, people do.

Karuturi Global, one of the largest producers of roses in the world was smitten by the bug of agricultural colonization of Africa.

What happened subsequently is detailed in this <a href="http://tinyurl.com/7ghm76f">article from Business Today magazine</a> (http://tinyurl.com/7ghm76f).

My biggest takeaway from this article is that wealth is always created by human beings and not by hard assets, raw materials and factors of production.  Wealth is created by the know-how, ingenuity and execution ability of humans.  The embodiment of the above attributes are the institutions (companies, regulators, courts, universities etc. etc.) or the <em>soft infrastructure</em> of an economy.  That is why I believe that equities have been and will continue to remain the most powerful engines of wealth creation.

The world is smitten by physical infrastructure and the power and might they project.  I contend that in the absence (or during breakdown) of soft infrastructure, physical infrastructure is absolutely useless.  History has demonstrated this repeatedly.

The starkest display of this was right after the collapse of the Soviet Union.  This was visually depicted in the Nicolas Cage movie <em>Lord Of War, </em>in which arms dealer Yuri Orlov smuggled arms out of leaderless warehouses full of state of the art weapons after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

When Argentina's government defaulted on its external debt in 2001 and the banking system seized up, things came to a complete standstill.

We recently saw things completely come to a standstill in Egypt.  It is  anyone's guess how and when things will even return just to the state  that existed before the Arab Spring revolution.

If anyone has visited a state of the art factory or office building that has been mothballed because its owner filed for bankruptcy and could not fund it, he or she knows what I am talking about.

This is the biggest reason why I am bullish about the US economy and why I believe that the 21st century will be the American century.  As much as Americans complain about the breakdown in the economy and the problems the economy faces because of the country's fractured politics and its indebtedness, the US has some the biggest, best and strongest (relatively) institutions in the world.

The US has the best <em>soft infrastructure</em> in the world and there is no country that it is even remotely in competition with the US.

<strong>
</strong>]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>It Does Not Have To Be Exciting</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/india/occasional-monsoon-failures-are-necessary/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/india/occasional-monsoon-failures-are-necessary/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 15 May 2012 08:34:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>rahul</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3780</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Indian agriculture is disproportionately dependent on the monsoon rains that arrive between June and September every year.  The Indian government, despite years of lip service, has not built adequate irrigation infrastructure to reduce the dependence of the country on the monsoon rains.

India has had two good years of rains in 2010 and 2011.  The deficient [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[Indian agriculture is disproportionately dependent on the monsoon rains that arrive between June and September every year.  The Indian government, despite years of lip service, has not built adequate irrigation infrastructure to reduce the dependence of the country on the monsoon rains.

India has had two good years of rains in 2010 and 2011.  The deficient monsoon in 2009 was not a complete drought.  The last severe countrywide drought was in 2001 and 2002.

Failure of the monsoon has a direct bearing on India's GDP.  El Nino weather patterns have usually not been friendly to the monsoons and the severest droughts in India have occurred during El Nino systems in the pacific ocean.  It also seems that Murphy's law works and when it rains it pours (no pun intended).

2012 is shaping up to be a severe El Nino year and India's GDP is likely to clock a 6% growth rate without a monsoon failure.  My hunch (without scientific basis or crystal ball gazing) is that India could have a severe monsoon failure this year.  A monsoon failure will make Indian GDP growth clock a 5% number.  This will make all politicians and economists see the bogey-man.

However, in my view, occasional monsoon failures are essential for the sustenance of Indian agriculture, just like forest fires are essential for the health of the forest.

There are several things that an occasional monsoon failure achieves:

- It gives the top soil rest and gives it time to rebuild its nutrient content and thereby to rebuild its crop yielding capability.  In the absence of monsoon failure, farmers over-work their land.

- It creates agricultural cyclicality that otherwise the free market would have to create.

- It prevents the terms of trade of agriculture from deteriorating rapidly.

- It sends a strong message to the government, via the electorate, to move and take action toward building non monsoon dependent irrigation infrastructure.

- It helps the government of India to empty its granaries and prevents valuable grain from rotting.  In 2011, India had record foodgrain output of 253 million tonnes.  The central government is carrying food grain stocks of 71 million tonnes.  These are the highest stocks ever.  The previous record of 62.5 million tonnes was set prior to the drought in 2001-2002.

- It forces people off the land and makes agriculture more productive (perversely) and more profitable for the survivors.  65% of India's population lives in villages and depends directly or indirectly on agriculture.  This makes poverty fester as agriculture cannot generate higher standard of living for such a large number of people.

Therefore in my view, occasional monsoon failures are necessary and good for the long term health of the economy.

In the interim, the outlook for Indian GDP growth looks dire.  I once again state on record that the governor of Reserve Bank of India is drinking the wrong monetary economics Kool-Aid and needs to reduce interest rates in a big way, quickly.]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Atyant Capital</title>
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	<link>http://atyantcapital.com</link>
	<description>Expertise in Emerging Market Investments</description>
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			<item>
		<title>Occasional Monsoon Failures Are Necessary</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/india/occasional-monsoon-failures-are-necessary/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/india/occasional-monsoon-failures-are-necessary/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 15 May 2012 08:34:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>rahul</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3780</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Indian agriculture is disproportionately dependent on the monsoon rains that arrive between June and September every year.  The Indian government, despite years of lip service, has not built adequate irrigation infrastructure to reduce the dependence of the country on the monsoon rains.

India has had two good years of rains in 2010 and 2011.  The deficient [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[Indian agriculture is disproportionately dependent on the monsoon rains that arrive between June and September every year.  The Indian government, despite years of lip service, has not built adequate irrigation infrastructure to reduce the dependence of the country on the monsoon rains.

India has had two good years of rains in 2010 and 2011.  The deficient monsoon in 2009 was not a complete drought.  The last severe countrywide drought was in 2001 and 2002.

Failure of the monsoon has a direct bearing on India's GDP.  El Nino weather patterns have usually not been friendly to the monsoons and the severest droughts in India have occurred during El Nino systems in the pacific ocean.  It also seems that Murphy's law works and when it rains it pours (no pun intended).

2012 is shaping up to be a severe El Nino year and India's GDP is likely to clock a 6% growth rate without a monsoon failure.  My hunch (without scientific basis or crystal ball gazing) is that India could have a severe monsoon failure this year.  A monsoon failure will make Indian GDP growth clock a 5% number.  This will make all politicians and economists see the bogey-man.

However, in my view, occasional monsoon failures are essential for the sustenance of Indian agriculture, just like forest fires are essential for the health of the forest.

There are several things that an occasional monsoon failure achieves:

- It gives the top soil rest and gives it time to rebuild its nutrient content and thereby to rebuild its crop yielding capability.  In the absence of monsoon failure, farmers over-work their land.

- It creates agricultural cyclicality that otherwise the free market would have to create.

- It prevents the terms of trade of agriculture from deteriorating rapidly.

- It sends a strong message to the government, via the electorate, to move and take action toward building non monsoon dependent irrigation infrastructure.

- It helps the government of India to empty its granaries and prevents valuable grain from rotting.  In 2011, India had record foodgrain output of 253 million tonnes.  The central government is carrying food grain stocks of 71 million tonnes.  These are the highest stocks ever.  The previous record of 62.5 million tonnes was set prior to the drought in 2001-2002.

- It forces people off the land and makes agriculture more productive (perversely) and more profitable for the survivors.  65% of India's population lives in villages and depends directly or indirectly on agriculture.  This makes poverty fester as agriculture cannot generate higher standard of living for such a large number of people.

Therefore in my view, occasional monsoon failures are necessary and good for the long term health of the economy.

In the interim, the outlook for Indian GDP growth looks dire.  I once again state on record that the governor of Reserve Bank of India is drinking the wrong monetary economics Kool-Aid and needs to reduce interest rates in a big way, quickly.]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
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		<item>
		<title>Rahul Saraogi on The Manual of Ideas</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/tracking-rahul/rahul-saragoi-on-the-manual-of-ideas/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/tracking-rahul/rahul-saragoi-on-the-manual-of-ideas/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 02 May 2012 20:09:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Pratik Sharma</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3754</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In his interview with Oliver Mihaljevic of The Manual of Ideas, Rahul talks about his approach to investing and how it applies to Indian Markets. A world class publication The Manual of Ideas is used by the who’s who of the international investment community.

]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[In his interview with Oliver Mihaljevic of <a href="www.manualofideas.com" target="_blank">The Manual of Ideas,</a> Rahul talks about his approach to investing and how it applies to Indian Markets. A world class publication The Manual of Ideas is used by the who’s who of the international investment community.

<iframe width="640" height="360" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/kZBWZd_zB8w" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://atyantcapital.com/tracking-rahul/rahul-saragoi-on-the-manual-of-ideas/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
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		<item>
		<title>Live Tweeting From Omaha</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/india/live-tweeting-from-omaha/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/india/live-tweeting-from-omaha/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 01 May 2012 13:59:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>rahul</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3751</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I am going to be at the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting in Omaha this Saturday, 5th May.  I will tweet my thoughts live from the event.  You can follow me at http://twitter.com/#!/RahulSaraogi

If you are going to be in Omaha and want to connect, reach out to me.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[I am going to be at the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting in Omaha this Saturday, 5th May.  I will tweet my thoughts live from the event.  You can follow me at <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/RahulSaraogi">http://twitter.com/#!/RahulSaraogi</a>

If you are going to be in Omaha and want to connect, reach out to me.]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>2</slash:comments>
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		<title>Building on the Lessons of Poker Great Amarillo Slim</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/asset-management-industry/building-on-the-lessons-of-poker-great-amarillo-slim/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/asset-management-industry/building-on-the-lessons-of-poker-great-amarillo-slim/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 24 Apr 2012 15:10:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>vedant</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3736</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Amarillo Slim was a great poker player and his three keys to playing the game well apply equally to navigating the markets successfully; you need 1) know the 60/40 end of a proposition 2) use risk management and 3) know thyself.

Know thyself has to do with psychology and the mental game. As the saying goes, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[Amarillo Slim was a great poker player and his three keys to playing the game well apply equally to navigating the markets successfully; you need 1) know the 60/40 end of a proposition 2) use risk management and 3) know thyself.

Know thyself has to do with psychology and the mental game. As the saying goes, "Everyone has a plan, until they get punched in the face" and so keys 1 and 2 are all well and good, but are you going to be able to employ them real time?

This past year, my friend taught me the concept of being centered. He says my job is to make good, unemotional decisions and you cannot do that if you are not centered. I have found for me to be centered, I need to put myself in a position so that I do not fear, nor hope for any particular outcome. I want to be able to come into work each and every single day and either be opening positions, closing them or doing nothing based all on my predefined rules. This requires me to predefine all potential scenarios and develop a plan of action for each given scenario. Operating in this manner has allowed me to neither fear, nor hope for any particular outcome, but just unemotionally execute on my predetermined plan.]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Ivanhoe&#8217;s Rights Offering is a Role Model</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/precious-metals/ivanhoes-rights-offering-is-a-role-model/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/precious-metals/ivanhoes-rights-offering-is-a-role-model/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 22 Apr 2012 18:10:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>vedant</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global & US]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Precious Metals]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3731</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Last week, Ivanhoe Mines (NYSE: IVN) announced an .8 billion rights offering as part of a Rio Tinto (NYSE: RIO) supported project finance package to transition Ivanhoe's Oyu Tolgoi copper/gold project into a Rio Tinto major mining operation. All existing Ivanhoe shareholders (which includes Rio Tinto at 51% and Ivanhoe CEO/Founder Robert Friedland at 10+%) [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[Last week, Ivanhoe Mines (NYSE: IVN) announced an .8 billion rights offering as part of a Rio Tinto (NYSE: RIO) supported project finance package to transition Ivanhoe's Oyu Tolgoi copper/gold project into a Rio Tinto major mining operation. All existing Ivanhoe shareholders (which includes Rio Tinto at 51% and Ivanhoe CEO/Founder Robert Friedland at 10+%) will be able to participate on an equal, proportional basis in purchasing additional common shares of IVN at a subscription price of C.34 (current market price C.65).

Other Canadian mining companies, are you taking note? Instead of your bought deals and private placements, how about equity financing with the more shareholder friendly rights offerings? With rights offerings, existing shareholders can avoid having their stakes diluted regardless of how low you price the financing. In a tough market such as now, you can sweeten the deal with the subscription price at a discount to market price and free trading rights. Required of you would be better planning, more paperwork and saying no to the banker offering you seemingly easy cash.]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
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		<item>
		<title>Making Time Your Enemy</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/india/making-time-your-enemy/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/india/making-time-your-enemy/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Apr 2012 08:49:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>rahul</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3728</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I've always maintained that to be a successful investor, one has to make time a friend and not an enemy.  There are innumerable potential opportunities in life where we know the eventual outcome but we don't know when the outcome will take place.  Such situations are not risky but uncertain.

Of all the places in the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[I've always maintained that to be a successful investor, one has to make time a friend and not an enemy.  There are innumerable potential opportunities in life where we know the eventual outcome but we don't know when the outcome will take place.  Such situations are not risky but uncertain.

Of all the places in the world, India excels at the art of creating uncertainty in know outcomes.  Even things that seem absolutely imminent can suddenly become uncertain.

There are many ways of making time an enemy including things like leverage.  However, one can make time an enemy with something as basic as one's structure, setup and approach to investing.

Many global capital allocators in areas including venture capital, private equity and hedge funds became enamored by India in recent years and setup large establishments in India.  They hired star fund managers and recruited associates and analysts at top dollar salaries.  They ruined  the market for high quality secretaries and prime office space in Mumbai and Delhi by outbidding incumbents.  They replicated their IT systems and security policies and transportation policies and almost everything else from their offices in New York, London and Hong Kong.

This in my opinion has become a ticking time bomb for them  because they have made time a terrible enemy.  To justify their establishment expenses, they are desperate to deploy capital in India.  However, when the environment becomes non-conducive and remains so for an extended period of time, their frustrations start to build up.  This recent article on <a href="http://tinyurl.com/6un48or">DE Shaw's plan to downsize its India operation</a> (<a href="http://tinyurl.com/6un48or">http://tinyurl.com/6un48or</a>) is only one of many such that I've read in recent times.

The other end of the spectrum are allocators who believe that India is not a significant opportunity and don't provide any dedicated resources to India.  They execute their India exposure using teams sitting in New York, London or Singapore and make it part of their Asia ex-Japan pools.  While there is no time horizon mismatch there, I think that is a terrible way to invest in India.

So what is the right approach?  In my opinion, it is essential to have a team with ears and feet on the ground in India to invest successfully in India.  It is imperative that the <em>key decision maker</em> be based in India.  There is no way that someone who lives outside India for 182 days in a year can successfully invest based on "research" generated by their India investment teams.  However, it is also essential that the team in India be kept very simple and rudimentary.

To make time a friend, it is essential that the capital allocator be willing to hang around in India doing nothing for several years and not feel the pressure to <em>make something happen</em>.

This probably sounds like I am talking my book.  I am.  However, it is important to keep in mind that we've structured our operations the way we have because we believe in what I've highlighted above and not the other way around.]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
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		<item>
		<title>Best Return/Risk Profiles in Project Finance</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/precious-metals/best-returnrisk-profiles-in-project-finance/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/precious-metals/best-returnrisk-profiles-in-project-finance/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 15 Apr 2012 18:16:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>vedant</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global & US]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Precious Metals]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3705</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Over the last three years, many pools of capital a.k.a private funds have formed for the specific purpose of investing in real estate, as well as credit situations. I argue that when large pools of competing capital exist to target a certain sector, the potential returns for those given set of opportunities are merely within [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[Over the last three years, many pools of capital a.k.a private funds have formed for the specific purpose of investing in real estate, as well as credit situations. I argue that when large pools of competing capital exist to target a certain sector, the potential returns for those given set of opportunities are merely within the ballpark of risk adjusted market returns.

The area where funding completely shut down and little has formed as a replacement to date, is Project Finance. Nobody wants, and even fewer have the wherewithal, to fund large scale, long term, non cash flowing until completion projects. And precisely for this reason, we are seeing the most outstanding return/risk profiles here.

Now I don't see funds forming in a meaningful way to take advantage of present circumstances any time soon. This is in great part due to a general decline in risk appetite as well as sophisticated capital sticking to its knitting. Real estate people are staying in real estate, tech people in tech and widget people in widgets. This leaves industries to internally generate and accrue cash flow for the purposes of financing these longer term project opportunities.]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Transformational Impact Of The US Energy Boom</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/india/transformational-impact-of-the-us-energy-boom/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/india/transformational-impact-of-the-us-energy-boom/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Apr 2012 18:09:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>rahul</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global & US]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3702</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[When the history of the twenty first century is written, one of the defining aspects that will be written about will be the invention/discovery of hydraulic fracking, horizontal drilling and the commercial exploitation of shale gas and shale oil.

It is unfortunate that the discovery of something so transformational has happened in the depths of the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[When the history of the twenty first century is written, one of the defining aspects that will be written about will be the invention/discovery of hydraulic fracking, horizontal drilling and the commercial exploitation of shale gas and shale oil.

It is unfortunate that the discovery of something so transformational has happened in the depths of the biggest economic and financial market slumps in a century.  It is the nature of the present environment that prevents us from fully appreciating the impact of what has happened.

The population of the world recently touched 7 billion and if projections are to be believed, the world will have a population of 9 billion by the year 2050.  The Economist newspaper published a special report last year called <em><a href="http://www.economist.com/node/18200618">The 9 billion people question</a> </em>(http://www.economist.com/node/18200618).

The two things that are needed for the planet to sustain 9 billion people and to offer them increasingly higher standards of living are food and fresh water.  If we have sufficient and affordable energy, these two problems are solved.

While the world has become concerned about its carbon footprint and there has been a previously unimagined level of government focus on green energy and subsidies to encourage it, I believe that commercially affordable and ubiquitous green energy is at least 50 years away.  However, the discovery of affordable shale gas and shale oil gives us the window required to sustain higher standards of living for a world population headed to 9 billion even as we work on perfecting the economics and utilization of green energy.

I believe that the world is on the precipice of a gas and oil boom with the US at the forefront.  The next big thing is still going to come from the US.  No, it will not be web 4.0, it will be <em>conventional energy.</em>]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
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		<item>
		<title>It Is All About The Soft Infrastructure</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/india/it-is-all-about-the-soft-infrastructure/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/india/it-is-all-about-the-soft-infrastructure/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Apr 2012 17:45:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>rahul</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3696</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The period from 2007 to 2008 was unique in many ways.  In the midst of a big increase in oil prices, food prices had started sky-rocketing.  As the food versus fuel debate was raging, the world became concerned with its ability to produce enough food in the future.

While the Malthusian concerns were at their peak, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[The period from 2007 to 2008 was unique in many ways.  In the midst of a big increase in oil prices, food prices had started sky-rocketing.  As the food versus fuel debate was raging, the world became concerned with its ability to produce enough food in the future.

While the Malthusian concerns were at their peak, African countries like Madagascar and Ethiopia opened up huge tracts of land in their countries to foreigners for farming.  One of my contentions at the time was that land does not grow food, people do.

Karuturi Global, one of the largest producers of roses in the world was smitten by the bug of agricultural colonization of Africa.

What happened subsequently is detailed in this <a href="http://tinyurl.com/7ghm76f">article from Business Today magazine</a> (http://tinyurl.com/7ghm76f).

My biggest takeaway from this article is that wealth is always created by human beings and not by hard assets, raw materials and factors of production.  Wealth is created by the know-how, ingenuity and execution ability of humans.  The embodiment of the above attributes are the institutions (companies, regulators, courts, universities etc. etc.) or the <em>soft infrastructure</em> of an economy.  That is why I believe that equities have been and will continue to remain the most powerful engines of wealth creation.

The world is smitten by physical infrastructure and the power and might they project.  I contend that in the absence (or during breakdown) of soft infrastructure, physical infrastructure is absolutely useless.  History has demonstrated this repeatedly.

The starkest display of this was right after the collapse of the Soviet Union.  This was visually depicted in the Nicolas Cage movie <em>Lord Of War, </em>in which arms dealer Yuri Orlov smuggled arms out of leaderless warehouses full of state of the art weapons after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

When Argentina's government defaulted on its external debt in 2001 and the banking system seized up, things came to a complete standstill.

We recently saw things completely come to a standstill in Egypt.  It is  anyone's guess how and when things will even return just to the state  that existed before the Arab Spring revolution.

If anyone has visited a state of the art factory or office building that has been mothballed because its owner filed for bankruptcy and could not fund it, he or she knows what I am talking about.

This is the biggest reason why I am bullish about the US economy and why I believe that the 21st century will be the American century.  As much as Americans complain about the breakdown in the economy and the problems the economy faces because of the country's fractured politics and its indebtedness, the US has some the biggest, best and strongest (relatively) institutions in the world.

The US has the best <em>soft infrastructure</em> in the world and there is no country that it is even remotely in competition with the US.

<strong>
</strong>]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>It Does Not Have To Be Exciting</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/tracking-rahul/rahul-saragoi-on-the-manual-of-ideas/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/tracking-rahul/rahul-saragoi-on-the-manual-of-ideas/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 02 May 2012 20:09:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Pratik Sharma</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3754</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In his interview with Oliver Mihaljevic of The Manual of Ideas, Rahul talks about his approach to investing and how it applies to Indian Markets. A world class publication The Manual of Ideas is used by the who’s who of the international investment community.

]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[In his interview with Oliver Mihaljevic of <a href="www.manualofideas.com" target="_blank">The Manual of Ideas,</a> Rahul talks about his approach to investing and how it applies to Indian Markets. A world class publication The Manual of Ideas is used by the who’s who of the international investment community.

<iframe width="640" height="360" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/kZBWZd_zB8w" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Atyant Capital</title>
	<atom:link href="http://atyantcapital.com/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://atyantcapital.com</link>
	<description>Expertise in Emerging Market Investments</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Tue, 15 May 2012 08:34:07 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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	<language>en</language>
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			<item>
		<title>Occasional Monsoon Failures Are Necessary</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/india/occasional-monsoon-failures-are-necessary/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/india/occasional-monsoon-failures-are-necessary/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 15 May 2012 08:34:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>rahul</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3780</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Indian agriculture is disproportionately dependent on the monsoon rains that arrive between June and September every year.  The Indian government, despite years of lip service, has not built adequate irrigation infrastructure to reduce the dependence of the country on the monsoon rains.

India has had two good years of rains in 2010 and 2011.  The deficient [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[Indian agriculture is disproportionately dependent on the monsoon rains that arrive between June and September every year.  The Indian government, despite years of lip service, has not built adequate irrigation infrastructure to reduce the dependence of the country on the monsoon rains.

India has had two good years of rains in 2010 and 2011.  The deficient monsoon in 2009 was not a complete drought.  The last severe countrywide drought was in 2001 and 2002.

Failure of the monsoon has a direct bearing on India's GDP.  El Nino weather patterns have usually not been friendly to the monsoons and the severest droughts in India have occurred during El Nino systems in the pacific ocean.  It also seems that Murphy's law works and when it rains it pours (no pun intended).

2012 is shaping up to be a severe El Nino year and India's GDP is likely to clock a 6% growth rate without a monsoon failure.  My hunch (without scientific basis or crystal ball gazing) is that India could have a severe monsoon failure this year.  A monsoon failure will make Indian GDP growth clock a 5% number.  This will make all politicians and economists see the bogey-man.

However, in my view, occasional monsoon failures are essential for the sustenance of Indian agriculture, just like forest fires are essential for the health of the forest.

There are several things that an occasional monsoon failure achieves:

- It gives the top soil rest and gives it time to rebuild its nutrient content and thereby to rebuild its crop yielding capability.  In the absence of monsoon failure, farmers over-work their land.

- It creates agricultural cyclicality that otherwise the free market would have to create.

- It prevents the terms of trade of agriculture from deteriorating rapidly.

- It sends a strong message to the government, via the electorate, to move and take action toward building non monsoon dependent irrigation infrastructure.

- It helps the government of India to empty its granaries and prevents valuable grain from rotting.  In 2011, India had record foodgrain output of 253 million tonnes.  The central government is carrying food grain stocks of 71 million tonnes.  These are the highest stocks ever.  The previous record of 62.5 million tonnes was set prior to the drought in 2001-2002.

- It forces people off the land and makes agriculture more productive (perversely) and more profitable for the survivors.  65% of India's population lives in villages and depends directly or indirectly on agriculture.  This makes poverty fester as agriculture cannot generate higher standard of living for such a large number of people.

Therefore in my view, occasional monsoon failures are necessary and good for the long term health of the economy.

In the interim, the outlook for Indian GDP growth looks dire.  I once again state on record that the governor of Reserve Bank of India is drinking the wrong monetary economics Kool-Aid and needs to reduce interest rates in a big way, quickly.]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://atyantcapital.com/india/occasional-monsoon-failures-are-necessary/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
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		<item>
		<title>Rahul Saraogi on The Manual of Ideas</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/tracking-rahul/rahul-saragoi-on-the-manual-of-ideas/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/tracking-rahul/rahul-saragoi-on-the-manual-of-ideas/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 02 May 2012 20:09:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Pratik Sharma</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3754</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In his interview with Oliver Mihaljevic of The Manual of Ideas, Rahul talks about his approach to investing and how it applies to Indian Markets. A world class publication The Manual of Ideas is used by the who’s who of the international investment community.

]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[In his interview with Oliver Mihaljevic of <a href="www.manualofideas.com" target="_blank">The Manual of Ideas,</a> Rahul talks about his approach to investing and how it applies to Indian Markets. A world class publication The Manual of Ideas is used by the who’s who of the international investment community.

<iframe width="640" height="360" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/kZBWZd_zB8w" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://atyantcapital.com/tracking-rahul/rahul-saragoi-on-the-manual-of-ideas/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
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		<item>
		<title>Live Tweeting From Omaha</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/india/live-tweeting-from-omaha/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/india/live-tweeting-from-omaha/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 01 May 2012 13:59:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>rahul</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3751</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I am going to be at the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting in Omaha this Saturday, 5th May.  I will tweet my thoughts live from the event.  You can follow me at http://twitter.com/#!/RahulSaraogi

If you are going to be in Omaha and want to connect, reach out to me.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[I am going to be at the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting in Omaha this Saturday, 5th May.  I will tweet my thoughts live from the event.  You can follow me at <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/RahulSaraogi">http://twitter.com/#!/RahulSaraogi</a>

If you are going to be in Omaha and want to connect, reach out to me.]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>2</slash:comments>
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		<item>
		<title>Building on the Lessons of Poker Great Amarillo Slim</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/asset-management-industry/building-on-the-lessons-of-poker-great-amarillo-slim/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/asset-management-industry/building-on-the-lessons-of-poker-great-amarillo-slim/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 24 Apr 2012 15:10:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>vedant</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3736</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Amarillo Slim was a great poker player and his three keys to playing the game well apply equally to navigating the markets successfully; you need 1) know the 60/40 end of a proposition 2) use risk management and 3) know thyself.

Know thyself has to do with psychology and the mental game. As the saying goes, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[Amarillo Slim was a great poker player and his three keys to playing the game well apply equally to navigating the markets successfully; you need 1) know the 60/40 end of a proposition 2) use risk management and 3) know thyself.

Know thyself has to do with psychology and the mental game. As the saying goes, "Everyone has a plan, until they get punched in the face" and so keys 1 and 2 are all well and good, but are you going to be able to employ them real time?

This past year, my friend taught me the concept of being centered. He says my job is to make good, unemotional decisions and you cannot do that if you are not centered. I have found for me to be centered, I need to put myself in a position so that I do not fear, nor hope for any particular outcome. I want to be able to come into work each and every single day and either be opening positions, closing them or doing nothing based all on my predefined rules. This requires me to predefine all potential scenarios and develop a plan of action for each given scenario. Operating in this manner has allowed me to neither fear, nor hope for any particular outcome, but just unemotionally execute on my predetermined plan.]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://atyantcapital.com/asset-management-industry/building-on-the-lessons-of-poker-great-amarillo-slim/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
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		<item>
		<title>Ivanhoe&#8217;s Rights Offering is a Role Model</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/precious-metals/ivanhoes-rights-offering-is-a-role-model/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/precious-metals/ivanhoes-rights-offering-is-a-role-model/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 22 Apr 2012 18:10:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>vedant</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global & US]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Precious Metals]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3731</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Last week, Ivanhoe Mines (NYSE: IVN) announced an .8 billion rights offering as part of a Rio Tinto (NYSE: RIO) supported project finance package to transition Ivanhoe's Oyu Tolgoi copper/gold project into a Rio Tinto major mining operation. All existing Ivanhoe shareholders (which includes Rio Tinto at 51% and Ivanhoe CEO/Founder Robert Friedland at 10+%) [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[Last week, Ivanhoe Mines (NYSE: IVN) announced an .8 billion rights offering as part of a Rio Tinto (NYSE: RIO) supported project finance package to transition Ivanhoe's Oyu Tolgoi copper/gold project into a Rio Tinto major mining operation. All existing Ivanhoe shareholders (which includes Rio Tinto at 51% and Ivanhoe CEO/Founder Robert Friedland at 10+%) will be able to participate on an equal, proportional basis in purchasing additional common shares of IVN at a subscription price of C.34 (current market price C.65).

Other Canadian mining companies, are you taking note? Instead of your bought deals and private placements, how about equity financing with the more shareholder friendly rights offerings? With rights offerings, existing shareholders can avoid having their stakes diluted regardless of how low you price the financing. In a tough market such as now, you can sweeten the deal with the subscription price at a discount to market price and free trading rights. Required of you would be better planning, more paperwork and saying no to the banker offering you seemingly easy cash.]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://atyantcapital.com/precious-metals/ivanhoes-rights-offering-is-a-role-model/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
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		<item>
		<title>Making Time Your Enemy</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/india/making-time-your-enemy/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/india/making-time-your-enemy/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Apr 2012 08:49:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>rahul</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3728</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I've always maintained that to be a successful investor, one has to make time a friend and not an enemy.  There are innumerable potential opportunities in life where we know the eventual outcome but we don't know when the outcome will take place.  Such situations are not risky but uncertain.

Of all the places in the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[I've always maintained that to be a successful investor, one has to make time a friend and not an enemy.  There are innumerable potential opportunities in life where we know the eventual outcome but we don't know when the outcome will take place.  Such situations are not risky but uncertain.

Of all the places in the world, India excels at the art of creating uncertainty in know outcomes.  Even things that seem absolutely imminent can suddenly become uncertain.

There are many ways of making time an enemy including things like leverage.  However, one can make time an enemy with something as basic as one's structure, setup and approach to investing.

Many global capital allocators in areas including venture capital, private equity and hedge funds became enamored by India in recent years and setup large establishments in India.  They hired star fund managers and recruited associates and analysts at top dollar salaries.  They ruined  the market for high quality secretaries and prime office space in Mumbai and Delhi by outbidding incumbents.  They replicated their IT systems and security policies and transportation policies and almost everything else from their offices in New York, London and Hong Kong.

This in my opinion has become a ticking time bomb for them  because they have made time a terrible enemy.  To justify their establishment expenses, they are desperate to deploy capital in India.  However, when the environment becomes non-conducive and remains so for an extended period of time, their frustrations start to build up.  This recent article on <a href="http://tinyurl.com/6un48or">DE Shaw's plan to downsize its India operation</a> (<a href="http://tinyurl.com/6un48or">http://tinyurl.com/6un48or</a>) is only one of many such that I've read in recent times.

The other end of the spectrum are allocators who believe that India is not a significant opportunity and don't provide any dedicated resources to India.  They execute their India exposure using teams sitting in New York, London or Singapore and make it part of their Asia ex-Japan pools.  While there is no time horizon mismatch there, I think that is a terrible way to invest in India.

So what is the right approach?  In my opinion, it is essential to have a team with ears and feet on the ground in India to invest successfully in India.  It is imperative that the <em>key decision maker</em> be based in India.  There is no way that someone who lives outside India for 182 days in a year can successfully invest based on "research" generated by their India investment teams.  However, it is also essential that the team in India be kept very simple and rudimentary.

To make time a friend, it is essential that the capital allocator be willing to hang around in India doing nothing for several years and not feel the pressure to <em>make something happen</em>.

This probably sounds like I am talking my book.  I am.  However, it is important to keep in mind that we've structured our operations the way we have because we believe in what I've highlighted above and not the other way around.]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://atyantcapital.com/india/making-time-your-enemy/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
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		<item>
		<title>Best Return/Risk Profiles in Project Finance</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/precious-metals/best-returnrisk-profiles-in-project-finance/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/precious-metals/best-returnrisk-profiles-in-project-finance/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 15 Apr 2012 18:16:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>vedant</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global & US]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Precious Metals]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3705</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Over the last three years, many pools of capital a.k.a private funds have formed for the specific purpose of investing in real estate, as well as credit situations. I argue that when large pools of competing capital exist to target a certain sector, the potential returns for those given set of opportunities are merely within [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[Over the last three years, many pools of capital a.k.a private funds have formed for the specific purpose of investing in real estate, as well as credit situations. I argue that when large pools of competing capital exist to target a certain sector, the potential returns for those given set of opportunities are merely within the ballpark of risk adjusted market returns.

The area where funding completely shut down and little has formed as a replacement to date, is Project Finance. Nobody wants, and even fewer have the wherewithal, to fund large scale, long term, non cash flowing until completion projects. And precisely for this reason, we are seeing the most outstanding return/risk profiles here.

Now I don't see funds forming in a meaningful way to take advantage of present circumstances any time soon. This is in great part due to a general decline in risk appetite as well as sophisticated capital sticking to its knitting. Real estate people are staying in real estate, tech people in tech and widget people in widgets. This leaves industries to internally generate and accrue cash flow for the purposes of financing these longer term project opportunities.]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
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		<item>
		<title>Transformational Impact Of The US Energy Boom</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/india/transformational-impact-of-the-us-energy-boom/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/india/transformational-impact-of-the-us-energy-boom/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Apr 2012 18:09:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>rahul</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global & US]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3702</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[When the history of the twenty first century is written, one of the defining aspects that will be written about will be the invention/discovery of hydraulic fracking, horizontal drilling and the commercial exploitation of shale gas and shale oil.

It is unfortunate that the discovery of something so transformational has happened in the depths of the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[When the history of the twenty first century is written, one of the defining aspects that will be written about will be the invention/discovery of hydraulic fracking, horizontal drilling and the commercial exploitation of shale gas and shale oil.

It is unfortunate that the discovery of something so transformational has happened in the depths of the biggest economic and financial market slumps in a century.  It is the nature of the present environment that prevents us from fully appreciating the impact of what has happened.

The population of the world recently touched 7 billion and if projections are to be believed, the world will have a population of 9 billion by the year 2050.  The Economist newspaper published a special report last year called <em><a href="http://www.economist.com/node/18200618">The 9 billion people question</a> </em>(http://www.economist.com/node/18200618).

The two things that are needed for the planet to sustain 9 billion people and to offer them increasingly higher standards of living are food and fresh water.  If we have sufficient and affordable energy, these two problems are solved.

While the world has become concerned about its carbon footprint and there has been a previously unimagined level of government focus on green energy and subsidies to encourage it, I believe that commercially affordable and ubiquitous green energy is at least 50 years away.  However, the discovery of affordable shale gas and shale oil gives us the window required to sustain higher standards of living for a world population headed to 9 billion even as we work on perfecting the economics and utilization of green energy.

I believe that the world is on the precipice of a gas and oil boom with the US at the forefront.  The next big thing is still going to come from the US.  No, it will not be web 4.0, it will be <em>conventional energy.</em>]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
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		<item>
		<title>It Is All About The Soft Infrastructure</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/india/it-is-all-about-the-soft-infrastructure/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/india/it-is-all-about-the-soft-infrastructure/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Apr 2012 17:45:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>rahul</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3696</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The period from 2007 to 2008 was unique in many ways.  In the midst of a big increase in oil prices, food prices had started sky-rocketing.  As the food versus fuel debate was raging, the world became concerned with its ability to produce enough food in the future.

While the Malthusian concerns were at their peak, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[The period from 2007 to 2008 was unique in many ways.  In the midst of a big increase in oil prices, food prices had started sky-rocketing.  As the food versus fuel debate was raging, the world became concerned with its ability to produce enough food in the future.

While the Malthusian concerns were at their peak, African countries like Madagascar and Ethiopia opened up huge tracts of land in their countries to foreigners for farming.  One of my contentions at the time was that land does not grow food, people do.

Karuturi Global, one of the largest producers of roses in the world was smitten by the bug of agricultural colonization of Africa.

What happened subsequently is detailed in this <a href="http://tinyurl.com/7ghm76f">article from Business Today magazine</a> (http://tinyurl.com/7ghm76f).

My biggest takeaway from this article is that wealth is always created by human beings and not by hard assets, raw materials and factors of production.  Wealth is created by the know-how, ingenuity and execution ability of humans.  The embodiment of the above attributes are the institutions (companies, regulators, courts, universities etc. etc.) or the <em>soft infrastructure</em> of an economy.  That is why I believe that equities have been and will continue to remain the most powerful engines of wealth creation.

The world is smitten by physical infrastructure and the power and might they project.  I contend that in the absence (or during breakdown) of soft infrastructure, physical infrastructure is absolutely useless.  History has demonstrated this repeatedly.

The starkest display of this was right after the collapse of the Soviet Union.  This was visually depicted in the Nicolas Cage movie <em>Lord Of War, </em>in which arms dealer Yuri Orlov smuggled arms out of leaderless warehouses full of state of the art weapons after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

When Argentina's government defaulted on its external debt in 2001 and the banking system seized up, things came to a complete standstill.

We recently saw things completely come to a standstill in Egypt.  It is  anyone's guess how and when things will even return just to the state  that existed before the Arab Spring revolution.

If anyone has visited a state of the art factory or office building that has been mothballed because its owner filed for bankruptcy and could not fund it, he or she knows what I am talking about.

This is the biggest reason why I am bullish about the US economy and why I believe that the 21st century will be the American century.  As much as Americans complain about the breakdown in the economy and the problems the economy faces because of the country's fractured politics and its indebtedness, the US has some the biggest, best and strongest (relatively) institutions in the world.

The US has the best <em>soft infrastructure</em> in the world and there is no country that it is even remotely in competition with the US.

<strong>
</strong>]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>It Does Not Have To Be Exciting</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/india/live-tweeting-from-omaha/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/india/live-tweeting-from-omaha/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 01 May 2012 13:59:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>rahul</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3751</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I am going to be at the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting in Omaha this Saturday, 5th May.  I will tweet my thoughts live from the event.  You can follow me at http://twitter.com/#!/RahulSaraogi

If you are going to be in Omaha and want to connect, reach out to me.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[I am going to be at the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting in Omaha this Saturday, 5th May.  I will tweet my thoughts live from the event.  You can follow me at <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/RahulSaraogi">http://twitter.com/#!/RahulSaraogi</a>

If you are going to be in Omaha and want to connect, reach out to me.]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>2</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Atyant Capital</title>
	<atom:link href="http://atyantcapital.com/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://atyantcapital.com</link>
	<description>Expertise in Emerging Market Investments</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Tue, 15 May 2012 08:34:07 +0000</lastBuildDate>
	<generator>http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6</generator>
	<language>en</language>
	<sy:updatePeriod>hourly</sy:updatePeriod>
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			<item>
		<title>Occasional Monsoon Failures Are Necessary</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/india/occasional-monsoon-failures-are-necessary/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/india/occasional-monsoon-failures-are-necessary/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 15 May 2012 08:34:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>rahul</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3780</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Indian agriculture is disproportionately dependent on the monsoon rains that arrive between June and September every year.  The Indian government, despite years of lip service, has not built adequate irrigation infrastructure to reduce the dependence of the country on the monsoon rains.

India has had two good years of rains in 2010 and 2011.  The deficient [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[Indian agriculture is disproportionately dependent on the monsoon rains that arrive between June and September every year.  The Indian government, despite years of lip service, has not built adequate irrigation infrastructure to reduce the dependence of the country on the monsoon rains.

India has had two good years of rains in 2010 and 2011.  The deficient monsoon in 2009 was not a complete drought.  The last severe countrywide drought was in 2001 and 2002.

Failure of the monsoon has a direct bearing on India's GDP.  El Nino weather patterns have usually not been friendly to the monsoons and the severest droughts in India have occurred during El Nino systems in the pacific ocean.  It also seems that Murphy's law works and when it rains it pours (no pun intended).

2012 is shaping up to be a severe El Nino year and India's GDP is likely to clock a 6% growth rate without a monsoon failure.  My hunch (without scientific basis or crystal ball gazing) is that India could have a severe monsoon failure this year.  A monsoon failure will make Indian GDP growth clock a 5% number.  This will make all politicians and economists see the bogey-man.

However, in my view, occasional monsoon failures are essential for the sustenance of Indian agriculture, just like forest fires are essential for the health of the forest.

There are several things that an occasional monsoon failure achieves:

- It gives the top soil rest and gives it time to rebuild its nutrient content and thereby to rebuild its crop yielding capability.  In the absence of monsoon failure, farmers over-work their land.

- It creates agricultural cyclicality that otherwise the free market would have to create.

- It prevents the terms of trade of agriculture from deteriorating rapidly.

- It sends a strong message to the government, via the electorate, to move and take action toward building non monsoon dependent irrigation infrastructure.

- It helps the government of India to empty its granaries and prevents valuable grain from rotting.  In 2011, India had record foodgrain output of 253 million tonnes.  The central government is carrying food grain stocks of 71 million tonnes.  These are the highest stocks ever.  The previous record of 62.5 million tonnes was set prior to the drought in 2001-2002.

- It forces people off the land and makes agriculture more productive (perversely) and more profitable for the survivors.  65% of India's population lives in villages and depends directly or indirectly on agriculture.  This makes poverty fester as agriculture cannot generate higher standard of living for such a large number of people.

Therefore in my view, occasional monsoon failures are necessary and good for the long term health of the economy.

In the interim, the outlook for Indian GDP growth looks dire.  I once again state on record that the governor of Reserve Bank of India is drinking the wrong monetary economics Kool-Aid and needs to reduce interest rates in a big way, quickly.]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://atyantcapital.com/india/occasional-monsoon-failures-are-necessary/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Rahul Saraogi on The Manual of Ideas</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/tracking-rahul/rahul-saragoi-on-the-manual-of-ideas/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/tracking-rahul/rahul-saragoi-on-the-manual-of-ideas/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 02 May 2012 20:09:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Pratik Sharma</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3754</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In his interview with Oliver Mihaljevic of The Manual of Ideas, Rahul talks about his approach to investing and how it applies to Indian Markets. A world class publication The Manual of Ideas is used by the who’s who of the international investment community.

]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[In his interview with Oliver Mihaljevic of <a href="www.manualofideas.com" target="_blank">The Manual of Ideas,</a> Rahul talks about his approach to investing and how it applies to Indian Markets. A world class publication The Manual of Ideas is used by the who’s who of the international investment community.

<iframe width="640" height="360" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/kZBWZd_zB8w" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://atyantcapital.com/tracking-rahul/rahul-saragoi-on-the-manual-of-ideas/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Live Tweeting From Omaha</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/india/live-tweeting-from-omaha/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/india/live-tweeting-from-omaha/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 01 May 2012 13:59:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>rahul</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3751</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I am going to be at the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting in Omaha this Saturday, 5th May.  I will tweet my thoughts live from the event.  You can follow me at http://twitter.com/#!/RahulSaraogi

If you are going to be in Omaha and want to connect, reach out to me.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[I am going to be at the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting in Omaha this Saturday, 5th May.  I will tweet my thoughts live from the event.  You can follow me at <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/RahulSaraogi">http://twitter.com/#!/RahulSaraogi</a>

If you are going to be in Omaha and want to connect, reach out to me.]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>2</slash:comments>
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		<item>
		<title>Building on the Lessons of Poker Great Amarillo Slim</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/asset-management-industry/building-on-the-lessons-of-poker-great-amarillo-slim/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/asset-management-industry/building-on-the-lessons-of-poker-great-amarillo-slim/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 24 Apr 2012 15:10:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>vedant</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3736</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Amarillo Slim was a great poker player and his three keys to playing the game well apply equally to navigating the markets successfully; you need 1) know the 60/40 end of a proposition 2) use risk management and 3) know thyself.

Know thyself has to do with psychology and the mental game. As the saying goes, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[Amarillo Slim was a great poker player and his three keys to playing the game well apply equally to navigating the markets successfully; you need 1) know the 60/40 end of a proposition 2) use risk management and 3) know thyself.

Know thyself has to do with psychology and the mental game. As the saying goes, "Everyone has a plan, until they get punched in the face" and so keys 1 and 2 are all well and good, but are you going to be able to employ them real time?

This past year, my friend taught me the concept of being centered. He says my job is to make good, unemotional decisions and you cannot do that if you are not centered. I have found for me to be centered, I need to put myself in a position so that I do not fear, nor hope for any particular outcome. I want to be able to come into work each and every single day and either be opening positions, closing them or doing nothing based all on my predefined rules. This requires me to predefine all potential scenarios and develop a plan of action for each given scenario. Operating in this manner has allowed me to neither fear, nor hope for any particular outcome, but just unemotionally execute on my predetermined plan.]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://atyantcapital.com/asset-management-industry/building-on-the-lessons-of-poker-great-amarillo-slim/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Ivanhoe&#8217;s Rights Offering is a Role Model</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/precious-metals/ivanhoes-rights-offering-is-a-role-model/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/precious-metals/ivanhoes-rights-offering-is-a-role-model/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 22 Apr 2012 18:10:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>vedant</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global & US]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Precious Metals]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3731</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Last week, Ivanhoe Mines (NYSE: IVN) announced an .8 billion rights offering as part of a Rio Tinto (NYSE: RIO) supported project finance package to transition Ivanhoe's Oyu Tolgoi copper/gold project into a Rio Tinto major mining operation. All existing Ivanhoe shareholders (which includes Rio Tinto at 51% and Ivanhoe CEO/Founder Robert Friedland at 10+%) [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[Last week, Ivanhoe Mines (NYSE: IVN) announced an .8 billion rights offering as part of a Rio Tinto (NYSE: RIO) supported project finance package to transition Ivanhoe's Oyu Tolgoi copper/gold project into a Rio Tinto major mining operation. All existing Ivanhoe shareholders (which includes Rio Tinto at 51% and Ivanhoe CEO/Founder Robert Friedland at 10+%) will be able to participate on an equal, proportional basis in purchasing additional common shares of IVN at a subscription price of C.34 (current market price C.65).

Other Canadian mining companies, are you taking note? Instead of your bought deals and private placements, how about equity financing with the more shareholder friendly rights offerings? With rights offerings, existing shareholders can avoid having their stakes diluted regardless of how low you price the financing. In a tough market such as now, you can sweeten the deal with the subscription price at a discount to market price and free trading rights. Required of you would be better planning, more paperwork and saying no to the banker offering you seemingly easy cash.]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Making Time Your Enemy</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/india/making-time-your-enemy/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/india/making-time-your-enemy/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Apr 2012 08:49:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>rahul</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3728</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I've always maintained that to be a successful investor, one has to make time a friend and not an enemy.  There are innumerable potential opportunities in life where we know the eventual outcome but we don't know when the outcome will take place.  Such situations are not risky but uncertain.

Of all the places in the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[I've always maintained that to be a successful investor, one has to make time a friend and not an enemy.  There are innumerable potential opportunities in life where we know the eventual outcome but we don't know when the outcome will take place.  Such situations are not risky but uncertain.

Of all the places in the world, India excels at the art of creating uncertainty in know outcomes.  Even things that seem absolutely imminent can suddenly become uncertain.

There are many ways of making time an enemy including things like leverage.  However, one can make time an enemy with something as basic as one's structure, setup and approach to investing.

Many global capital allocators in areas including venture capital, private equity and hedge funds became enamored by India in recent years and setup large establishments in India.  They hired star fund managers and recruited associates and analysts at top dollar salaries.  They ruined  the market for high quality secretaries and prime office space in Mumbai and Delhi by outbidding incumbents.  They replicated their IT systems and security policies and transportation policies and almost everything else from their offices in New York, London and Hong Kong.

This in my opinion has become a ticking time bomb for them  because they have made time a terrible enemy.  To justify their establishment expenses, they are desperate to deploy capital in India.  However, when the environment becomes non-conducive and remains so for an extended period of time, their frustrations start to build up.  This recent article on <a href="http://tinyurl.com/6un48or">DE Shaw's plan to downsize its India operation</a> (<a href="http://tinyurl.com/6un48or">http://tinyurl.com/6un48or</a>) is only one of many such that I've read in recent times.

The other end of the spectrum are allocators who believe that India is not a significant opportunity and don't provide any dedicated resources to India.  They execute their India exposure using teams sitting in New York, London or Singapore and make it part of their Asia ex-Japan pools.  While there is no time horizon mismatch there, I think that is a terrible way to invest in India.

So what is the right approach?  In my opinion, it is essential to have a team with ears and feet on the ground in India to invest successfully in India.  It is imperative that the <em>key decision maker</em> be based in India.  There is no way that someone who lives outside India for 182 days in a year can successfully invest based on "research" generated by their India investment teams.  However, it is also essential that the team in India be kept very simple and rudimentary.

To make time a friend, it is essential that the capital allocator be willing to hang around in India doing nothing for several years and not feel the pressure to <em>make something happen</em>.

This probably sounds like I am talking my book.  I am.  However, it is important to keep in mind that we've structured our operations the way we have because we believe in what I've highlighted above and not the other way around.]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://atyantcapital.com/india/making-time-your-enemy/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
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		<item>
		<title>Best Return/Risk Profiles in Project Finance</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/precious-metals/best-returnrisk-profiles-in-project-finance/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/precious-metals/best-returnrisk-profiles-in-project-finance/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 15 Apr 2012 18:16:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>vedant</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global & US]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Precious Metals]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3705</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Over the last three years, many pools of capital a.k.a private funds have formed for the specific purpose of investing in real estate, as well as credit situations. I argue that when large pools of competing capital exist to target a certain sector, the potential returns for those given set of opportunities are merely within [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[Over the last three years, many pools of capital a.k.a private funds have formed for the specific purpose of investing in real estate, as well as credit situations. I argue that when large pools of competing capital exist to target a certain sector, the potential returns for those given set of opportunities are merely within the ballpark of risk adjusted market returns.

The area where funding completely shut down and little has formed as a replacement to date, is Project Finance. Nobody wants, and even fewer have the wherewithal, to fund large scale, long term, non cash flowing until completion projects. And precisely for this reason, we are seeing the most outstanding return/risk profiles here.

Now I don't see funds forming in a meaningful way to take advantage of present circumstances any time soon. This is in great part due to a general decline in risk appetite as well as sophisticated capital sticking to its knitting. Real estate people are staying in real estate, tech people in tech and widget people in widgets. This leaves industries to internally generate and accrue cash flow for the purposes of financing these longer term project opportunities.]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Transformational Impact Of The US Energy Boom</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/india/transformational-impact-of-the-us-energy-boom/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/india/transformational-impact-of-the-us-energy-boom/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Apr 2012 18:09:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>rahul</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global & US]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3702</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[When the history of the twenty first century is written, one of the defining aspects that will be written about will be the invention/discovery of hydraulic fracking, horizontal drilling and the commercial exploitation of shale gas and shale oil.

It is unfortunate that the discovery of something so transformational has happened in the depths of the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[When the history of the twenty first century is written, one of the defining aspects that will be written about will be the invention/discovery of hydraulic fracking, horizontal drilling and the commercial exploitation of shale gas and shale oil.

It is unfortunate that the discovery of something so transformational has happened in the depths of the biggest economic and financial market slumps in a century.  It is the nature of the present environment that prevents us from fully appreciating the impact of what has happened.

The population of the world recently touched 7 billion and if projections are to be believed, the world will have a population of 9 billion by the year 2050.  The Economist newspaper published a special report last year called <em><a href="http://www.economist.com/node/18200618">The 9 billion people question</a> </em>(http://www.economist.com/node/18200618).

The two things that are needed for the planet to sustain 9 billion people and to offer them increasingly higher standards of living are food and fresh water.  If we have sufficient and affordable energy, these two problems are solved.

While the world has become concerned about its carbon footprint and there has been a previously unimagined level of government focus on green energy and subsidies to encourage it, I believe that commercially affordable and ubiquitous green energy is at least 50 years away.  However, the discovery of affordable shale gas and shale oil gives us the window required to sustain higher standards of living for a world population headed to 9 billion even as we work on perfecting the economics and utilization of green energy.

I believe that the world is on the precipice of a gas and oil boom with the US at the forefront.  The next big thing is still going to come from the US.  No, it will not be web 4.0, it will be <em>conventional energy.</em>]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>It Is All About The Soft Infrastructure</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/india/it-is-all-about-the-soft-infrastructure/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/india/it-is-all-about-the-soft-infrastructure/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Apr 2012 17:45:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>rahul</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3696</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The period from 2007 to 2008 was unique in many ways.  In the midst of a big increase in oil prices, food prices had started sky-rocketing.  As the food versus fuel debate was raging, the world became concerned with its ability to produce enough food in the future.

While the Malthusian concerns were at their peak, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[The period from 2007 to 2008 was unique in many ways.  In the midst of a big increase in oil prices, food prices had started sky-rocketing.  As the food versus fuel debate was raging, the world became concerned with its ability to produce enough food in the future.

While the Malthusian concerns were at their peak, African countries like Madagascar and Ethiopia opened up huge tracts of land in their countries to foreigners for farming.  One of my contentions at the time was that land does not grow food, people do.

Karuturi Global, one of the largest producers of roses in the world was smitten by the bug of agricultural colonization of Africa.

What happened subsequently is detailed in this <a href="http://tinyurl.com/7ghm76f">article from Business Today magazine</a> (http://tinyurl.com/7ghm76f).

My biggest takeaway from this article is that wealth is always created by human beings and not by hard assets, raw materials and factors of production.  Wealth is created by the know-how, ingenuity and execution ability of humans.  The embodiment of the above attributes are the institutions (companies, regulators, courts, universities etc. etc.) or the <em>soft infrastructure</em> of an economy.  That is why I believe that equities have been and will continue to remain the most powerful engines of wealth creation.

The world is smitten by physical infrastructure and the power and might they project.  I contend that in the absence (or during breakdown) of soft infrastructure, physical infrastructure is absolutely useless.  History has demonstrated this repeatedly.

The starkest display of this was right after the collapse of the Soviet Union.  This was visually depicted in the Nicolas Cage movie <em>Lord Of War, </em>in which arms dealer Yuri Orlov smuggled arms out of leaderless warehouses full of state of the art weapons after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

When Argentina's government defaulted on its external debt in 2001 and the banking system seized up, things came to a complete standstill.

We recently saw things completely come to a standstill in Egypt.  It is  anyone's guess how and when things will even return just to the state  that existed before the Arab Spring revolution.

If anyone has visited a state of the art factory or office building that has been mothballed because its owner filed for bankruptcy and could not fund it, he or she knows what I am talking about.

This is the biggest reason why I am bullish about the US economy and why I believe that the 21st century will be the American century.  As much as Americans complain about the breakdown in the economy and the problems the economy faces because of the country's fractured politics and its indebtedness, the US has some the biggest, best and strongest (relatively) institutions in the world.

The US has the best <em>soft infrastructure</em> in the world and there is no country that it is even remotely in competition with the US.

<strong>
</strong>]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>It Does Not Have To Be Exciting</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/asset-management-industry/building-on-the-lessons-of-poker-great-amarillo-slim/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/asset-management-industry/building-on-the-lessons-of-poker-great-amarillo-slim/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 24 Apr 2012 15:10:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>vedant</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3736</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Amarillo Slim was a great poker player and his three keys to playing the game well apply equally to navigating the markets successfully; you need 1) know the 60/40 end of a proposition 2) use risk management and 3) know thyself.

Know thyself has to do with psychology and the mental game. As the saying goes, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[Amarillo Slim was a great poker player and his three keys to playing the game well apply equally to navigating the markets successfully; you need 1) know the 60/40 end of a proposition 2) use risk management and 3) know thyself.

Know thyself has to do with psychology and the mental game. As the saying goes, "Everyone has a plan, until they get punched in the face" and so keys 1 and 2 are all well and good, but are you going to be able to employ them real time?

This past year, my friend taught me the concept of being centered. He says my job is to make good, unemotional decisions and you cannot do that if you are not centered. I have found for me to be centered, I need to put myself in a position so that I do not fear, nor hope for any particular outcome. I want to be able to come into work each and every single day and either be opening positions, closing them or doing nothing based all on my predefined rules. This requires me to predefine all potential scenarios and develop a plan of action for each given scenario. Operating in this manner has allowed me to neither fear, nor hope for any particular outcome, but just unemotionally execute on my predetermined plan.]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://atyantcapital.com/asset-management-industry/building-on-the-lessons-of-poker-great-amarillo-slim/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Atyant Capital</title>
	<atom:link href="http://atyantcapital.com/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://atyantcapital.com</link>
	<description>Expertise in Emerging Market Investments</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Tue, 15 May 2012 08:34:07 +0000</lastBuildDate>
	<generator>http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6</generator>
	<language>en</language>
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			<item>
		<title>Occasional Monsoon Failures Are Necessary</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/india/occasional-monsoon-failures-are-necessary/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/india/occasional-monsoon-failures-are-necessary/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 15 May 2012 08:34:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>rahul</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3780</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Indian agriculture is disproportionately dependent on the monsoon rains that arrive between June and September every year.  The Indian government, despite years of lip service, has not built adequate irrigation infrastructure to reduce the dependence of the country on the monsoon rains.

India has had two good years of rains in 2010 and 2011.  The deficient [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[Indian agriculture is disproportionately dependent on the monsoon rains that arrive between June and September every year.  The Indian government, despite years of lip service, has not built adequate irrigation infrastructure to reduce the dependence of the country on the monsoon rains.

India has had two good years of rains in 2010 and 2011.  The deficient monsoon in 2009 was not a complete drought.  The last severe countrywide drought was in 2001 and 2002.

Failure of the monsoon has a direct bearing on India's GDP.  El Nino weather patterns have usually not been friendly to the monsoons and the severest droughts in India have occurred during El Nino systems in the pacific ocean.  It also seems that Murphy's law works and when it rains it pours (no pun intended).

2012 is shaping up to be a severe El Nino year and India's GDP is likely to clock a 6% growth rate without a monsoon failure.  My hunch (without scientific basis or crystal ball gazing) is that India could have a severe monsoon failure this year.  A monsoon failure will make Indian GDP growth clock a 5% number.  This will make all politicians and economists see the bogey-man.

However, in my view, occasional monsoon failures are essential for the sustenance of Indian agriculture, just like forest fires are essential for the health of the forest.

There are several things that an occasional monsoon failure achieves:

- It gives the top soil rest and gives it time to rebuild its nutrient content and thereby to rebuild its crop yielding capability.  In the absence of monsoon failure, farmers over-work their land.

- It creates agricultural cyclicality that otherwise the free market would have to create.

- It prevents the terms of trade of agriculture from deteriorating rapidly.

- It sends a strong message to the government, via the electorate, to move and take action toward building non monsoon dependent irrigation infrastructure.

- It helps the government of India to empty its granaries and prevents valuable grain from rotting.  In 2011, India had record foodgrain output of 253 million tonnes.  The central government is carrying food grain stocks of 71 million tonnes.  These are the highest stocks ever.  The previous record of 62.5 million tonnes was set prior to the drought in 2001-2002.

- It forces people off the land and makes agriculture more productive (perversely) and more profitable for the survivors.  65% of India's population lives in villages and depends directly or indirectly on agriculture.  This makes poverty fester as agriculture cannot generate higher standard of living for such a large number of people.

Therefore in my view, occasional monsoon failures are necessary and good for the long term health of the economy.

In the interim, the outlook for Indian GDP growth looks dire.  I once again state on record that the governor of Reserve Bank of India is drinking the wrong monetary economics Kool-Aid and needs to reduce interest rates in a big way, quickly.]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://atyantcapital.com/india/occasional-monsoon-failures-are-necessary/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Rahul Saraogi on The Manual of Ideas</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/tracking-rahul/rahul-saragoi-on-the-manual-of-ideas/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/tracking-rahul/rahul-saragoi-on-the-manual-of-ideas/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 02 May 2012 20:09:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Pratik Sharma</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3754</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In his interview with Oliver Mihaljevic of The Manual of Ideas, Rahul talks about his approach to investing and how it applies to Indian Markets. A world class publication The Manual of Ideas is used by the who’s who of the international investment community.

]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[In his interview with Oliver Mihaljevic of <a href="www.manualofideas.com" target="_blank">The Manual of Ideas,</a> Rahul talks about his approach to investing and how it applies to Indian Markets. A world class publication The Manual of Ideas is used by the who’s who of the international investment community.

<iframe width="640" height="360" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/kZBWZd_zB8w" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://atyantcapital.com/tracking-rahul/rahul-saragoi-on-the-manual-of-ideas/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Live Tweeting From Omaha</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/india/live-tweeting-from-omaha/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/india/live-tweeting-from-omaha/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 01 May 2012 13:59:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>rahul</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3751</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I am going to be at the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting in Omaha this Saturday, 5th May.  I will tweet my thoughts live from the event.  You can follow me at http://twitter.com/#!/RahulSaraogi

If you are going to be in Omaha and want to connect, reach out to me.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[I am going to be at the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting in Omaha this Saturday, 5th May.  I will tweet my thoughts live from the event.  You can follow me at <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/RahulSaraogi">http://twitter.com/#!/RahulSaraogi</a>

If you are going to be in Omaha and want to connect, reach out to me.]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>2</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Building on the Lessons of Poker Great Amarillo Slim</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/asset-management-industry/building-on-the-lessons-of-poker-great-amarillo-slim/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/asset-management-industry/building-on-the-lessons-of-poker-great-amarillo-slim/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 24 Apr 2012 15:10:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>vedant</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3736</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Amarillo Slim was a great poker player and his three keys to playing the game well apply equally to navigating the markets successfully; you need 1) know the 60/40 end of a proposition 2) use risk management and 3) know thyself.

Know thyself has to do with psychology and the mental game. As the saying goes, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[Amarillo Slim was a great poker player and his three keys to playing the game well apply equally to navigating the markets successfully; you need 1) know the 60/40 end of a proposition 2) use risk management and 3) know thyself.

Know thyself has to do with psychology and the mental game. As the saying goes, "Everyone has a plan, until they get punched in the face" and so keys 1 and 2 are all well and good, but are you going to be able to employ them real time?

This past year, my friend taught me the concept of being centered. He says my job is to make good, unemotional decisions and you cannot do that if you are not centered. I have found for me to be centered, I need to put myself in a position so that I do not fear, nor hope for any particular outcome. I want to be able to come into work each and every single day and either be opening positions, closing them or doing nothing based all on my predefined rules. This requires me to predefine all potential scenarios and develop a plan of action for each given scenario. Operating in this manner has allowed me to neither fear, nor hope for any particular outcome, but just unemotionally execute on my predetermined plan.]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://atyantcapital.com/asset-management-industry/building-on-the-lessons-of-poker-great-amarillo-slim/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Ivanhoe&#8217;s Rights Offering is a Role Model</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/precious-metals/ivanhoes-rights-offering-is-a-role-model/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/precious-metals/ivanhoes-rights-offering-is-a-role-model/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 22 Apr 2012 18:10:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>vedant</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global & US]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Precious Metals]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3731</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Last week, Ivanhoe Mines (NYSE: IVN) announced an .8 billion rights offering as part of a Rio Tinto (NYSE: RIO) supported project finance package to transition Ivanhoe's Oyu Tolgoi copper/gold project into a Rio Tinto major mining operation. All existing Ivanhoe shareholders (which includes Rio Tinto at 51% and Ivanhoe CEO/Founder Robert Friedland at 10+%) [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[Last week, Ivanhoe Mines (NYSE: IVN) announced an .8 billion rights offering as part of a Rio Tinto (NYSE: RIO) supported project finance package to transition Ivanhoe's Oyu Tolgoi copper/gold project into a Rio Tinto major mining operation. All existing Ivanhoe shareholders (which includes Rio Tinto at 51% and Ivanhoe CEO/Founder Robert Friedland at 10+%) will be able to participate on an equal, proportional basis in purchasing additional common shares of IVN at a subscription price of C.34 (current market price C.65).

Other Canadian mining companies, are you taking note? Instead of your bought deals and private placements, how about equity financing with the more shareholder friendly rights offerings? With rights offerings, existing shareholders can avoid having their stakes diluted regardless of how low you price the financing. In a tough market such as now, you can sweeten the deal with the subscription price at a discount to market price and free trading rights. Required of you would be better planning, more paperwork and saying no to the banker offering you seemingly easy cash.]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://atyantcapital.com/precious-metals/ivanhoes-rights-offering-is-a-role-model/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Making Time Your Enemy</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/india/making-time-your-enemy/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/india/making-time-your-enemy/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Apr 2012 08:49:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>rahul</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3728</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I've always maintained that to be a successful investor, one has to make time a friend and not an enemy.  There are innumerable potential opportunities in life where we know the eventual outcome but we don't know when the outcome will take place.  Such situations are not risky but uncertain.

Of all the places in the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[I've always maintained that to be a successful investor, one has to make time a friend and not an enemy.  There are innumerable potential opportunities in life where we know the eventual outcome but we don't know when the outcome will take place.  Such situations are not risky but uncertain.

Of all the places in the world, India excels at the art of creating uncertainty in know outcomes.  Even things that seem absolutely imminent can suddenly become uncertain.

There are many ways of making time an enemy including things like leverage.  However, one can make time an enemy with something as basic as one's structure, setup and approach to investing.

Many global capital allocators in areas including venture capital, private equity and hedge funds became enamored by India in recent years and setup large establishments in India.  They hired star fund managers and recruited associates and analysts at top dollar salaries.  They ruined  the market for high quality secretaries and prime office space in Mumbai and Delhi by outbidding incumbents.  They replicated their IT systems and security policies and transportation policies and almost everything else from their offices in New York, London and Hong Kong.

This in my opinion has become a ticking time bomb for them  because they have made time a terrible enemy.  To justify their establishment expenses, they are desperate to deploy capital in India.  However, when the environment becomes non-conducive and remains so for an extended period of time, their frustrations start to build up.  This recent article on <a href="http://tinyurl.com/6un48or">DE Shaw's plan to downsize its India operation</a> (<a href="http://tinyurl.com/6un48or">http://tinyurl.com/6un48or</a>) is only one of many such that I've read in recent times.

The other end of the spectrum are allocators who believe that India is not a significant opportunity and don't provide any dedicated resources to India.  They execute their India exposure using teams sitting in New York, London or Singapore and make it part of their Asia ex-Japan pools.  While there is no time horizon mismatch there, I think that is a terrible way to invest in India.

So what is the right approach?  In my opinion, it is essential to have a team with ears and feet on the ground in India to invest successfully in India.  It is imperative that the <em>key decision maker</em> be based in India.  There is no way that someone who lives outside India for 182 days in a year can successfully invest based on "research" generated by their India investment teams.  However, it is also essential that the team in India be kept very simple and rudimentary.

To make time a friend, it is essential that the capital allocator be willing to hang around in India doing nothing for several years and not feel the pressure to <em>make something happen</em>.

This probably sounds like I am talking my book.  I am.  However, it is important to keep in mind that we've structured our operations the way we have because we believe in what I've highlighted above and not the other way around.]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://atyantcapital.com/india/making-time-your-enemy/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
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		<item>
		<title>Best Return/Risk Profiles in Project Finance</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/precious-metals/best-returnrisk-profiles-in-project-finance/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/precious-metals/best-returnrisk-profiles-in-project-finance/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 15 Apr 2012 18:16:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>vedant</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global & US]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Precious Metals]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3705</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Over the last three years, many pools of capital a.k.a private funds have formed for the specific purpose of investing in real estate, as well as credit situations. I argue that when large pools of competing capital exist to target a certain sector, the potential returns for those given set of opportunities are merely within [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[Over the last three years, many pools of capital a.k.a private funds have formed for the specific purpose of investing in real estate, as well as credit situations. I argue that when large pools of competing capital exist to target a certain sector, the potential returns for those given set of opportunities are merely within the ballpark of risk adjusted market returns.

The area where funding completely shut down and little has formed as a replacement to date, is Project Finance. Nobody wants, and even fewer have the wherewithal, to fund large scale, long term, non cash flowing until completion projects. And precisely for this reason, we are seeing the most outstanding return/risk profiles here.

Now I don't see funds forming in a meaningful way to take advantage of present circumstances any time soon. This is in great part due to a general decline in risk appetite as well as sophisticated capital sticking to its knitting. Real estate people are staying in real estate, tech people in tech and widget people in widgets. This leaves industries to internally generate and accrue cash flow for the purposes of financing these longer term project opportunities.]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Transformational Impact Of The US Energy Boom</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/india/transformational-impact-of-the-us-energy-boom/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/india/transformational-impact-of-the-us-energy-boom/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Apr 2012 18:09:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>rahul</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global & US]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3702</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[When the history of the twenty first century is written, one of the defining aspects that will be written about will be the invention/discovery of hydraulic fracking, horizontal drilling and the commercial exploitation of shale gas and shale oil.

It is unfortunate that the discovery of something so transformational has happened in the depths of the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[When the history of the twenty first century is written, one of the defining aspects that will be written about will be the invention/discovery of hydraulic fracking, horizontal drilling and the commercial exploitation of shale gas and shale oil.

It is unfortunate that the discovery of something so transformational has happened in the depths of the biggest economic and financial market slumps in a century.  It is the nature of the present environment that prevents us from fully appreciating the impact of what has happened.

The population of the world recently touched 7 billion and if projections are to be believed, the world will have a population of 9 billion by the year 2050.  The Economist newspaper published a special report last year called <em><a href="http://www.economist.com/node/18200618">The 9 billion people question</a> </em>(http://www.economist.com/node/18200618).

The two things that are needed for the planet to sustain 9 billion people and to offer them increasingly higher standards of living are food and fresh water.  If we have sufficient and affordable energy, these two problems are solved.

While the world has become concerned about its carbon footprint and there has been a previously unimagined level of government focus on green energy and subsidies to encourage it, I believe that commercially affordable and ubiquitous green energy is at least 50 years away.  However, the discovery of affordable shale gas and shale oil gives us the window required to sustain higher standards of living for a world population headed to 9 billion even as we work on perfecting the economics and utilization of green energy.

I believe that the world is on the precipice of a gas and oil boom with the US at the forefront.  The next big thing is still going to come from the US.  No, it will not be web 4.0, it will be <em>conventional energy.</em>]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>It Is All About The Soft Infrastructure</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/india/it-is-all-about-the-soft-infrastructure/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/india/it-is-all-about-the-soft-infrastructure/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Apr 2012 17:45:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>rahul</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3696</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The period from 2007 to 2008 was unique in many ways.  In the midst of a big increase in oil prices, food prices had started sky-rocketing.  As the food versus fuel debate was raging, the world became concerned with its ability to produce enough food in the future.

While the Malthusian concerns were at their peak, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[The period from 2007 to 2008 was unique in many ways.  In the midst of a big increase in oil prices, food prices had started sky-rocketing.  As the food versus fuel debate was raging, the world became concerned with its ability to produce enough food in the future.

While the Malthusian concerns were at their peak, African countries like Madagascar and Ethiopia opened up huge tracts of land in their countries to foreigners for farming.  One of my contentions at the time was that land does not grow food, people do.

Karuturi Global, one of the largest producers of roses in the world was smitten by the bug of agricultural colonization of Africa.

What happened subsequently is detailed in this <a href="http://tinyurl.com/7ghm76f">article from Business Today magazine</a> (http://tinyurl.com/7ghm76f).

My biggest takeaway from this article is that wealth is always created by human beings and not by hard assets, raw materials and factors of production.  Wealth is created by the know-how, ingenuity and execution ability of humans.  The embodiment of the above attributes are the institutions (companies, regulators, courts, universities etc. etc.) or the <em>soft infrastructure</em> of an economy.  That is why I believe that equities have been and will continue to remain the most powerful engines of wealth creation.

The world is smitten by physical infrastructure and the power and might they project.  I contend that in the absence (or during breakdown) of soft infrastructure, physical infrastructure is absolutely useless.  History has demonstrated this repeatedly.

The starkest display of this was right after the collapse of the Soviet Union.  This was visually depicted in the Nicolas Cage movie <em>Lord Of War, </em>in which arms dealer Yuri Orlov smuggled arms out of leaderless warehouses full of state of the art weapons after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

When Argentina's government defaulted on its external debt in 2001 and the banking system seized up, things came to a complete standstill.

We recently saw things completely come to a standstill in Egypt.  It is  anyone's guess how and when things will even return just to the state  that existed before the Arab Spring revolution.

If anyone has visited a state of the art factory or office building that has been mothballed because its owner filed for bankruptcy and could not fund it, he or she knows what I am talking about.

This is the biggest reason why I am bullish about the US economy and why I believe that the 21st century will be the American century.  As much as Americans complain about the breakdown in the economy and the problems the economy faces because of the country's fractured politics and its indebtedness, the US has some the biggest, best and strongest (relatively) institutions in the world.

The US has the best <em>soft infrastructure</em> in the world and there is no country that it is even remotely in competition with the US.

<strong>
</strong>]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>It Does Not Have To Be Exciting</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/precious-metals/ivanhoes-rights-offering-is-a-role-model/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/precious-metals/ivanhoes-rights-offering-is-a-role-model/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 22 Apr 2012 18:10:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>vedant</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global & US]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Precious Metals]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3731</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Last week, Ivanhoe Mines (NYSE: IVN) announced an $1.8 billion rights offering as part of a Rio Tinto (NYSE: RIO) supported project finance package to transition Ivanhoe's Oyu Tolgoi copper/gold project into a Rio Tinto major mining operation. All existing Ivanhoe shareholders (which includes Rio Tinto at 51% and Ivanhoe CEO/Founder Robert Friedland at 10+%) [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[Last week, Ivanhoe Mines (NYSE: IVN) announced an $1.8 billion rights offering as part of a Rio Tinto (NYSE: RIO) supported project finance package to transition Ivanhoe's Oyu Tolgoi copper/gold project into a Rio Tinto major mining operation. All existing Ivanhoe shareholders (which includes Rio Tinto at 51% and Ivanhoe CEO/Founder Robert Friedland at 10+%) will be able to participate on an equal, proportional basis in purchasing additional common shares of IVN at a subscription price of C$8.34 (current market price C$12.65).

Other Canadian mining companies, are you taking note? Instead of your bought deals and private placements, how about equity financing with the more shareholder friendly rights offerings? With rights offerings, existing shareholders can avoid having their stakes diluted regardless of how low you price the financing. In a tough market such as now, you can sweeten the deal with the subscription price at a discount to market price and free trading rights. Required of you would be better planning, more paperwork and saying no to the banker offering you seemingly easy cash.]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://atyantcapital.com/precious-metals/ivanhoes-rights-offering-is-a-role-model/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Atyant Capital</title>
	<atom:link href="http://atyantcapital.com/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://atyantcapital.com</link>
	<description>Expertise in Emerging Market Investments</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Tue, 15 May 2012 08:34:07 +0000</lastBuildDate>
	<generator>http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6</generator>
	<language>en</language>
	<sy:updatePeriod>hourly</sy:updatePeriod>
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			<item>
		<title>Occasional Monsoon Failures Are Necessary</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/india/occasional-monsoon-failures-are-necessary/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/india/occasional-monsoon-failures-are-necessary/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 15 May 2012 08:34:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>rahul</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3780</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Indian agriculture is disproportionately dependent on the monsoon rains that arrive between June and September every year.  The Indian government, despite years of lip service, has not built adequate irrigation infrastructure to reduce the dependence of the country on the monsoon rains.

India has had two good years of rains in 2010 and 2011.  The deficient [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[Indian agriculture is disproportionately dependent on the monsoon rains that arrive between June and September every year.  The Indian government, despite years of lip service, has not built adequate irrigation infrastructure to reduce the dependence of the country on the monsoon rains.

India has had two good years of rains in 2010 and 2011.  The deficient monsoon in 2009 was not a complete drought.  The last severe countrywide drought was in 2001 and 2002.

Failure of the monsoon has a direct bearing on India's GDP.  El Nino weather patterns have usually not been friendly to the monsoons and the severest droughts in India have occurred during El Nino systems in the pacific ocean.  It also seems that Murphy's law works and when it rains it pours (no pun intended).

2012 is shaping up to be a severe El Nino year and India's GDP is likely to clock a 6% growth rate without a monsoon failure.  My hunch (without scientific basis or crystal ball gazing) is that India could have a severe monsoon failure this year.  A monsoon failure will make Indian GDP growth clock a 5% number.  This will make all politicians and economists see the bogey-man.

However, in my view, occasional monsoon failures are essential for the sustenance of Indian agriculture, just like forest fires are essential for the health of the forest.

There are several things that an occasional monsoon failure achieves:

- It gives the top soil rest and gives it time to rebuild its nutrient content and thereby to rebuild its crop yielding capability.  In the absence of monsoon failure, farmers over-work their land.

- It creates agricultural cyclicality that otherwise the free market would have to create.

- It prevents the terms of trade of agriculture from deteriorating rapidly.

- It sends a strong message to the government, via the electorate, to move and take action toward building non monsoon dependent irrigation infrastructure.

- It helps the government of India to empty its granaries and prevents valuable grain from rotting.  In 2011, India had record foodgrain output of 253 million tonnes.  The central government is carrying food grain stocks of 71 million tonnes.  These are the highest stocks ever.  The previous record of 62.5 million tonnes was set prior to the drought in 2001-2002.

- It forces people off the land and makes agriculture more productive (perversely) and more profitable for the survivors.  65% of India's population lives in villages and depends directly or indirectly on agriculture.  This makes poverty fester as agriculture cannot generate higher standard of living for such a large number of people.

Therefore in my view, occasional monsoon failures are necessary and good for the long term health of the economy.

In the interim, the outlook for Indian GDP growth looks dire.  I once again state on record that the governor of Reserve Bank of India is drinking the wrong monetary economics Kool-Aid and needs to reduce interest rates in a big way, quickly.]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Rahul Saraogi on The Manual of Ideas</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/tracking-rahul/rahul-saragoi-on-the-manual-of-ideas/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/tracking-rahul/rahul-saragoi-on-the-manual-of-ideas/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 02 May 2012 20:09:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Pratik Sharma</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3754</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In his interview with Oliver Mihaljevic of The Manual of Ideas, Rahul talks about his approach to investing and how it applies to Indian Markets. A world class publication The Manual of Ideas is used by the who’s who of the international investment community.

]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[In his interview with Oliver Mihaljevic of <a href="www.manualofideas.com" target="_blank">The Manual of Ideas,</a> Rahul talks about his approach to investing and how it applies to Indian Markets. A world class publication The Manual of Ideas is used by the who’s who of the international investment community.

<iframe width="640" height="360" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/kZBWZd_zB8w" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://atyantcapital.com/tracking-rahul/rahul-saragoi-on-the-manual-of-ideas/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Live Tweeting From Omaha</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/india/live-tweeting-from-omaha/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/india/live-tweeting-from-omaha/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 01 May 2012 13:59:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>rahul</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3751</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I am going to be at the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting in Omaha this Saturday, 5th May.  I will tweet my thoughts live from the event.  You can follow me at http://twitter.com/#!/RahulSaraogi

If you are going to be in Omaha and want to connect, reach out to me.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[I am going to be at the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting in Omaha this Saturday, 5th May.  I will tweet my thoughts live from the event.  You can follow me at <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/RahulSaraogi">http://twitter.com/#!/RahulSaraogi</a>

If you are going to be in Omaha and want to connect, reach out to me.]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>2</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Building on the Lessons of Poker Great Amarillo Slim</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/asset-management-industry/building-on-the-lessons-of-poker-great-amarillo-slim/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/asset-management-industry/building-on-the-lessons-of-poker-great-amarillo-slim/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 24 Apr 2012 15:10:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>vedant</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3736</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Amarillo Slim was a great poker player and his three keys to playing the game well apply equally to navigating the markets successfully; you need 1) know the 60/40 end of a proposition 2) use risk management and 3) know thyself.

Know thyself has to do with psychology and the mental game. As the saying goes, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[Amarillo Slim was a great poker player and his three keys to playing the game well apply equally to navigating the markets successfully; you need 1) know the 60/40 end of a proposition 2) use risk management and 3) know thyself.

Know thyself has to do with psychology and the mental game. As the saying goes, "Everyone has a plan, until they get punched in the face" and so keys 1 and 2 are all well and good, but are you going to be able to employ them real time?

This past year, my friend taught me the concept of being centered. He says my job is to make good, unemotional decisions and you cannot do that if you are not centered. I have found for me to be centered, I need to put myself in a position so that I do not fear, nor hope for any particular outcome. I want to be able to come into work each and every single day and either be opening positions, closing them or doing nothing based all on my predefined rules. This requires me to predefine all potential scenarios and develop a plan of action for each given scenario. Operating in this manner has allowed me to neither fear, nor hope for any particular outcome, but just unemotionally execute on my predetermined plan.]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://atyantcapital.com/asset-management-industry/building-on-the-lessons-of-poker-great-amarillo-slim/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Ivanhoe&#8217;s Rights Offering is a Role Model</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/precious-metals/ivanhoes-rights-offering-is-a-role-model/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/precious-metals/ivanhoes-rights-offering-is-a-role-model/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 22 Apr 2012 18:10:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>vedant</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global & US]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Precious Metals]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3731</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Last week, Ivanhoe Mines (NYSE: IVN) announced an .8 billion rights offering as part of a Rio Tinto (NYSE: RIO) supported project finance package to transition Ivanhoe's Oyu Tolgoi copper/gold project into a Rio Tinto major mining operation. All existing Ivanhoe shareholders (which includes Rio Tinto at 51% and Ivanhoe CEO/Founder Robert Friedland at 10+%) [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[Last week, Ivanhoe Mines (NYSE: IVN) announced an .8 billion rights offering as part of a Rio Tinto (NYSE: RIO) supported project finance package to transition Ivanhoe's Oyu Tolgoi copper/gold project into a Rio Tinto major mining operation. All existing Ivanhoe shareholders (which includes Rio Tinto at 51% and Ivanhoe CEO/Founder Robert Friedland at 10+%) will be able to participate on an equal, proportional basis in purchasing additional common shares of IVN at a subscription price of C.34 (current market price C.65).

Other Canadian mining companies, are you taking note? Instead of your bought deals and private placements, how about equity financing with the more shareholder friendly rights offerings? With rights offerings, existing shareholders can avoid having their stakes diluted regardless of how low you price the financing. In a tough market such as now, you can sweeten the deal with the subscription price at a discount to market price and free trading rights. Required of you would be better planning, more paperwork and saying no to the banker offering you seemingly easy cash.]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Making Time Your Enemy</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/india/making-time-your-enemy/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/india/making-time-your-enemy/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Apr 2012 08:49:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>rahul</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3728</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I've always maintained that to be a successful investor, one has to make time a friend and not an enemy.  There are innumerable potential opportunities in life where we know the eventual outcome but we don't know when the outcome will take place.  Such situations are not risky but uncertain.

Of all the places in the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[I've always maintained that to be a successful investor, one has to make time a friend and not an enemy.  There are innumerable potential opportunities in life where we know the eventual outcome but we don't know when the outcome will take place.  Such situations are not risky but uncertain.

Of all the places in the world, India excels at the art of creating uncertainty in know outcomes.  Even things that seem absolutely imminent can suddenly become uncertain.

There are many ways of making time an enemy including things like leverage.  However, one can make time an enemy with something as basic as one's structure, setup and approach to investing.

Many global capital allocators in areas including venture capital, private equity and hedge funds became enamored by India in recent years and setup large establishments in India.  They hired star fund managers and recruited associates and analysts at top dollar salaries.  They ruined  the market for high quality secretaries and prime office space in Mumbai and Delhi by outbidding incumbents.  They replicated their IT systems and security policies and transportation policies and almost everything else from their offices in New York, London and Hong Kong.

This in my opinion has become a ticking time bomb for them  because they have made time a terrible enemy.  To justify their establishment expenses, they are desperate to deploy capital in India.  However, when the environment becomes non-conducive and remains so for an extended period of time, their frustrations start to build up.  This recent article on <a href="http://tinyurl.com/6un48or">DE Shaw's plan to downsize its India operation</a> (<a href="http://tinyurl.com/6un48or">http://tinyurl.com/6un48or</a>) is only one of many such that I've read in recent times.

The other end of the spectrum are allocators who believe that India is not a significant opportunity and don't provide any dedicated resources to India.  They execute their India exposure using teams sitting in New York, London or Singapore and make it part of their Asia ex-Japan pools.  While there is no time horizon mismatch there, I think that is a terrible way to invest in India.

So what is the right approach?  In my opinion, it is essential to have a team with ears and feet on the ground in India to invest successfully in India.  It is imperative that the <em>key decision maker</em> be based in India.  There is no way that someone who lives outside India for 182 days in a year can successfully invest based on "research" generated by their India investment teams.  However, it is also essential that the team in India be kept very simple and rudimentary.

To make time a friend, it is essential that the capital allocator be willing to hang around in India doing nothing for several years and not feel the pressure to <em>make something happen</em>.

This probably sounds like I am talking my book.  I am.  However, it is important to keep in mind that we've structured our operations the way we have because we believe in what I've highlighted above and not the other way around.]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://atyantcapital.com/india/making-time-your-enemy/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Best Return/Risk Profiles in Project Finance</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/precious-metals/best-returnrisk-profiles-in-project-finance/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/precious-metals/best-returnrisk-profiles-in-project-finance/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 15 Apr 2012 18:16:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>vedant</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global & US]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Precious Metals]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3705</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Over the last three years, many pools of capital a.k.a private funds have formed for the specific purpose of investing in real estate, as well as credit situations. I argue that when large pools of competing capital exist to target a certain sector, the potential returns for those given set of opportunities are merely within [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[Over the last three years, many pools of capital a.k.a private funds have formed for the specific purpose of investing in real estate, as well as credit situations. I argue that when large pools of competing capital exist to target a certain sector, the potential returns for those given set of opportunities are merely within the ballpark of risk adjusted market returns.

The area where funding completely shut down and little has formed as a replacement to date, is Project Finance. Nobody wants, and even fewer have the wherewithal, to fund large scale, long term, non cash flowing until completion projects. And precisely for this reason, we are seeing the most outstanding return/risk profiles here.

Now I don't see funds forming in a meaningful way to take advantage of present circumstances any time soon. This is in great part due to a general decline in risk appetite as well as sophisticated capital sticking to its knitting. Real estate people are staying in real estate, tech people in tech and widget people in widgets. This leaves industries to internally generate and accrue cash flow for the purposes of financing these longer term project opportunities.]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Transformational Impact Of The US Energy Boom</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/india/transformational-impact-of-the-us-energy-boom/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/india/transformational-impact-of-the-us-energy-boom/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Apr 2012 18:09:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>rahul</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global & US]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3702</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[When the history of the twenty first century is written, one of the defining aspects that will be written about will be the invention/discovery of hydraulic fracking, horizontal drilling and the commercial exploitation of shale gas and shale oil.

It is unfortunate that the discovery of something so transformational has happened in the depths of the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[When the history of the twenty first century is written, one of the defining aspects that will be written about will be the invention/discovery of hydraulic fracking, horizontal drilling and the commercial exploitation of shale gas and shale oil.

It is unfortunate that the discovery of something so transformational has happened in the depths of the biggest economic and financial market slumps in a century.  It is the nature of the present environment that prevents us from fully appreciating the impact of what has happened.

The population of the world recently touched 7 billion and if projections are to be believed, the world will have a population of 9 billion by the year 2050.  The Economist newspaper published a special report last year called <em><a href="http://www.economist.com/node/18200618">The 9 billion people question</a> </em>(http://www.economist.com/node/18200618).

The two things that are needed for the planet to sustain 9 billion people and to offer them increasingly higher standards of living are food and fresh water.  If we have sufficient and affordable energy, these two problems are solved.

While the world has become concerned about its carbon footprint and there has been a previously unimagined level of government focus on green energy and subsidies to encourage it, I believe that commercially affordable and ubiquitous green energy is at least 50 years away.  However, the discovery of affordable shale gas and shale oil gives us the window required to sustain higher standards of living for a world population headed to 9 billion even as we work on perfecting the economics and utilization of green energy.

I believe that the world is on the precipice of a gas and oil boom with the US at the forefront.  The next big thing is still going to come from the US.  No, it will not be web 4.0, it will be <em>conventional energy.</em>]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>It Is All About The Soft Infrastructure</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/india/it-is-all-about-the-soft-infrastructure/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/india/it-is-all-about-the-soft-infrastructure/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Apr 2012 17:45:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>rahul</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3696</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The period from 2007 to 2008 was unique in many ways.  In the midst of a big increase in oil prices, food prices had started sky-rocketing.  As the food versus fuel debate was raging, the world became concerned with its ability to produce enough food in the future.

While the Malthusian concerns were at their peak, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[The period from 2007 to 2008 was unique in many ways.  In the midst of a big increase in oil prices, food prices had started sky-rocketing.  As the food versus fuel debate was raging, the world became concerned with its ability to produce enough food in the future.

While the Malthusian concerns were at their peak, African countries like Madagascar and Ethiopia opened up huge tracts of land in their countries to foreigners for farming.  One of my contentions at the time was that land does not grow food, people do.

Karuturi Global, one of the largest producers of roses in the world was smitten by the bug of agricultural colonization of Africa.

What happened subsequently is detailed in this <a href="http://tinyurl.com/7ghm76f">article from Business Today magazine</a> (http://tinyurl.com/7ghm76f).

My biggest takeaway from this article is that wealth is always created by human beings and not by hard assets, raw materials and factors of production.  Wealth is created by the know-how, ingenuity and execution ability of humans.  The embodiment of the above attributes are the institutions (companies, regulators, courts, universities etc. etc.) or the <em>soft infrastructure</em> of an economy.  That is why I believe that equities have been and will continue to remain the most powerful engines of wealth creation.

The world is smitten by physical infrastructure and the power and might they project.  I contend that in the absence (or during breakdown) of soft infrastructure, physical infrastructure is absolutely useless.  History has demonstrated this repeatedly.

The starkest display of this was right after the collapse of the Soviet Union.  This was visually depicted in the Nicolas Cage movie <em>Lord Of War, </em>in which arms dealer Yuri Orlov smuggled arms out of leaderless warehouses full of state of the art weapons after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

When Argentina's government defaulted on its external debt in 2001 and the banking system seized up, things came to a complete standstill.

We recently saw things completely come to a standstill in Egypt.  It is  anyone's guess how and when things will even return just to the state  that existed before the Arab Spring revolution.

If anyone has visited a state of the art factory or office building that has been mothballed because its owner filed for bankruptcy and could not fund it, he or she knows what I am talking about.

This is the biggest reason why I am bullish about the US economy and why I believe that the 21st century will be the American century.  As much as Americans complain about the breakdown in the economy and the problems the economy faces because of the country's fractured politics and its indebtedness, the US has some the biggest, best and strongest (relatively) institutions in the world.

The US has the best <em>soft infrastructure</em> in the world and there is no country that it is even remotely in competition with the US.

<strong>
</strong>]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>It Does Not Have To Be Exciting</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/india/making-time-your-enemy/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/india/making-time-your-enemy/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Apr 2012 08:49:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>rahul</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3728</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I've always maintained that to be a successful investor, one has to make time a friend and not an enemy.  There are innumerable potential opportunities in life where we know the eventual outcome but we don't know when the outcome will take place.  Such situations are not risky but uncertain.

Of all the places in the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[I've always maintained that to be a successful investor, one has to make time a friend and not an enemy.  There are innumerable potential opportunities in life where we know the eventual outcome but we don't know when the outcome will take place.  Such situations are not risky but uncertain.

Of all the places in the world, India excels at the art of creating uncertainty in know outcomes.  Even things that seem absolutely imminent can suddenly become uncertain.

There are many ways of making time an enemy including things like leverage.  However, one can make time an enemy with something as basic as one's structure, setup and approach to investing.

Many global capital allocators in areas including venture capital, private equity and hedge funds became enamored by India in recent years and setup large establishments in India.  They hired star fund managers and recruited associates and analysts at top dollar salaries.  They ruined  the market for high quality secretaries and prime office space in Mumbai and Delhi by outbidding incumbents.  They replicated their IT systems and security policies and transportation policies and almost everything else from their offices in New York, London and Hong Kong.

This in my opinion has become a ticking time bomb for them  because they have made time a terrible enemy.  To justify their establishment expenses, they are desperate to deploy capital in India.  However, when the environment becomes non-conducive and remains so for an extended period of time, their frustrations start to build up.  This recent article on <a href="http://tinyurl.com/6un48or">DE Shaw's plan to downsize its India operation</a> (<a href="http://tinyurl.com/6un48or">http://tinyurl.com/6un48or</a>) is only one of many such that I've read in recent times.

The other end of the spectrum are allocators who believe that India is not a significant opportunity and don't provide any dedicated resources to India.  They execute their India exposure using teams sitting in New York, London or Singapore and make it part of their Asia ex-Japan pools.  While there is no time horizon mismatch there, I think that is a terrible way to invest in India.

So what is the right approach?  In my opinion, it is essential to have a team with ears and feet on the ground in India to invest successfully in India.  It is imperative that the <em>key decision maker</em> be based in India.  There is no way that someone who lives outside India for 182 days in a year can successfully invest based on "research" generated by their India investment teams.  However, it is also essential that the team in India be kept very simple and rudimentary.

To make time a friend, it is essential that the capital allocator be willing to hang around in India doing nothing for several years and not feel the pressure to <em>make something happen</em>.

This probably sounds like I am talking my book.  I am.  However, it is important to keep in mind that we've structured our operations the way we have because we believe in what I've highlighted above and not the other way around.]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Atyant Capital</title>
	<atom:link href="http://atyantcapital.com/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://atyantcapital.com</link>
	<description>Expertise in Emerging Market Investments</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Tue, 15 May 2012 08:34:07 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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			<item>
		<title>Occasional Monsoon Failures Are Necessary</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/india/occasional-monsoon-failures-are-necessary/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/india/occasional-monsoon-failures-are-necessary/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 15 May 2012 08:34:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>rahul</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3780</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Indian agriculture is disproportionately dependent on the monsoon rains that arrive between June and September every year.  The Indian government, despite years of lip service, has not built adequate irrigation infrastructure to reduce the dependence of the country on the monsoon rains.

India has had two good years of rains in 2010 and 2011.  The deficient [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[Indian agriculture is disproportionately dependent on the monsoon rains that arrive between June and September every year.  The Indian government, despite years of lip service, has not built adequate irrigation infrastructure to reduce the dependence of the country on the monsoon rains.

India has had two good years of rains in 2010 and 2011.  The deficient monsoon in 2009 was not a complete drought.  The last severe countrywide drought was in 2001 and 2002.

Failure of the monsoon has a direct bearing on India's GDP.  El Nino weather patterns have usually not been friendly to the monsoons and the severest droughts in India have occurred during El Nino systems in the pacific ocean.  It also seems that Murphy's law works and when it rains it pours (no pun intended).

2012 is shaping up to be a severe El Nino year and India's GDP is likely to clock a 6% growth rate without a monsoon failure.  My hunch (without scientific basis or crystal ball gazing) is that India could have a severe monsoon failure this year.  A monsoon failure will make Indian GDP growth clock a 5% number.  This will make all politicians and economists see the bogey-man.

However, in my view, occasional monsoon failures are essential for the sustenance of Indian agriculture, just like forest fires are essential for the health of the forest.

There are several things that an occasional monsoon failure achieves:

- It gives the top soil rest and gives it time to rebuild its nutrient content and thereby to rebuild its crop yielding capability.  In the absence of monsoon failure, farmers over-work their land.

- It creates agricultural cyclicality that otherwise the free market would have to create.

- It prevents the terms of trade of agriculture from deteriorating rapidly.

- It sends a strong message to the government, via the electorate, to move and take action toward building non monsoon dependent irrigation infrastructure.

- It helps the government of India to empty its granaries and prevents valuable grain from rotting.  In 2011, India had record foodgrain output of 253 million tonnes.  The central government is carrying food grain stocks of 71 million tonnes.  These are the highest stocks ever.  The previous record of 62.5 million tonnes was set prior to the drought in 2001-2002.

- It forces people off the land and makes agriculture more productive (perversely) and more profitable for the survivors.  65% of India's population lives in villages and depends directly or indirectly on agriculture.  This makes poverty fester as agriculture cannot generate higher standard of living for such a large number of people.

Therefore in my view, occasional monsoon failures are necessary and good for the long term health of the economy.

In the interim, the outlook for Indian GDP growth looks dire.  I once again state on record that the governor of Reserve Bank of India is drinking the wrong monetary economics Kool-Aid and needs to reduce interest rates in a big way, quickly.]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://atyantcapital.com/india/occasional-monsoon-failures-are-necessary/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Rahul Saraogi on The Manual of Ideas</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/tracking-rahul/rahul-saragoi-on-the-manual-of-ideas/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/tracking-rahul/rahul-saragoi-on-the-manual-of-ideas/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 02 May 2012 20:09:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Pratik Sharma</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3754</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In his interview with Oliver Mihaljevic of The Manual of Ideas, Rahul talks about his approach to investing and how it applies to Indian Markets. A world class publication The Manual of Ideas is used by the who’s who of the international investment community.

]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[In his interview with Oliver Mihaljevic of <a href="www.manualofideas.com" target="_blank">The Manual of Ideas,</a> Rahul talks about his approach to investing and how it applies to Indian Markets. A world class publication The Manual of Ideas is used by the who’s who of the international investment community.

<iframe width="640" height="360" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/kZBWZd_zB8w" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://atyantcapital.com/tracking-rahul/rahul-saragoi-on-the-manual-of-ideas/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Live Tweeting From Omaha</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/india/live-tweeting-from-omaha/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/india/live-tweeting-from-omaha/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 01 May 2012 13:59:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>rahul</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3751</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I am going to be at the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting in Omaha this Saturday, 5th May.  I will tweet my thoughts live from the event.  You can follow me at http://twitter.com/#!/RahulSaraogi

If you are going to be in Omaha and want to connect, reach out to me.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[I am going to be at the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting in Omaha this Saturday, 5th May.  I will tweet my thoughts live from the event.  You can follow me at <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/RahulSaraogi">http://twitter.com/#!/RahulSaraogi</a>

If you are going to be in Omaha and want to connect, reach out to me.]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>2</slash:comments>
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		<item>
		<title>Building on the Lessons of Poker Great Amarillo Slim</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/asset-management-industry/building-on-the-lessons-of-poker-great-amarillo-slim/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/asset-management-industry/building-on-the-lessons-of-poker-great-amarillo-slim/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 24 Apr 2012 15:10:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>vedant</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3736</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Amarillo Slim was a great poker player and his three keys to playing the game well apply equally to navigating the markets successfully; you need 1) know the 60/40 end of a proposition 2) use risk management and 3) know thyself.

Know thyself has to do with psychology and the mental game. As the saying goes, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[Amarillo Slim was a great poker player and his three keys to playing the game well apply equally to navigating the markets successfully; you need 1) know the 60/40 end of a proposition 2) use risk management and 3) know thyself.

Know thyself has to do with psychology and the mental game. As the saying goes, "Everyone has a plan, until they get punched in the face" and so keys 1 and 2 are all well and good, but are you going to be able to employ them real time?

This past year, my friend taught me the concept of being centered. He says my job is to make good, unemotional decisions and you cannot do that if you are not centered. I have found for me to be centered, I need to put myself in a position so that I do not fear, nor hope for any particular outcome. I want to be able to come into work each and every single day and either be opening positions, closing them or doing nothing based all on my predefined rules. This requires me to predefine all potential scenarios and develop a plan of action for each given scenario. Operating in this manner has allowed me to neither fear, nor hope for any particular outcome, but just unemotionally execute on my predetermined plan.]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://atyantcapital.com/asset-management-industry/building-on-the-lessons-of-poker-great-amarillo-slim/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Ivanhoe&#8217;s Rights Offering is a Role Model</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/precious-metals/ivanhoes-rights-offering-is-a-role-model/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/precious-metals/ivanhoes-rights-offering-is-a-role-model/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 22 Apr 2012 18:10:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>vedant</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global & US]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Precious Metals]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3731</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Last week, Ivanhoe Mines (NYSE: IVN) announced an .8 billion rights offering as part of a Rio Tinto (NYSE: RIO) supported project finance package to transition Ivanhoe's Oyu Tolgoi copper/gold project into a Rio Tinto major mining operation. All existing Ivanhoe shareholders (which includes Rio Tinto at 51% and Ivanhoe CEO/Founder Robert Friedland at 10+%) [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[Last week, Ivanhoe Mines (NYSE: IVN) announced an .8 billion rights offering as part of a Rio Tinto (NYSE: RIO) supported project finance package to transition Ivanhoe's Oyu Tolgoi copper/gold project into a Rio Tinto major mining operation. All existing Ivanhoe shareholders (which includes Rio Tinto at 51% and Ivanhoe CEO/Founder Robert Friedland at 10+%) will be able to participate on an equal, proportional basis in purchasing additional common shares of IVN at a subscription price of C.34 (current market price C.65).

Other Canadian mining companies, are you taking note? Instead of your bought deals and private placements, how about equity financing with the more shareholder friendly rights offerings? With rights offerings, existing shareholders can avoid having their stakes diluted regardless of how low you price the financing. In a tough market such as now, you can sweeten the deal with the subscription price at a discount to market price and free trading rights. Required of you would be better planning, more paperwork and saying no to the banker offering you seemingly easy cash.]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://atyantcapital.com/precious-metals/ivanhoes-rights-offering-is-a-role-model/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Making Time Your Enemy</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/india/making-time-your-enemy/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/india/making-time-your-enemy/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Apr 2012 08:49:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>rahul</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3728</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I've always maintained that to be a successful investor, one has to make time a friend and not an enemy.  There are innumerable potential opportunities in life where we know the eventual outcome but we don't know when the outcome will take place.  Such situations are not risky but uncertain.

Of all the places in the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[I've always maintained that to be a successful investor, one has to make time a friend and not an enemy.  There are innumerable potential opportunities in life where we know the eventual outcome but we don't know when the outcome will take place.  Such situations are not risky but uncertain.

Of all the places in the world, India excels at the art of creating uncertainty in know outcomes.  Even things that seem absolutely imminent can suddenly become uncertain.

There are many ways of making time an enemy including things like leverage.  However, one can make time an enemy with something as basic as one's structure, setup and approach to investing.

Many global capital allocators in areas including venture capital, private equity and hedge funds became enamored by India in recent years and setup large establishments in India.  They hired star fund managers and recruited associates and analysts at top dollar salaries.  They ruined  the market for high quality secretaries and prime office space in Mumbai and Delhi by outbidding incumbents.  They replicated their IT systems and security policies and transportation policies and almost everything else from their offices in New York, London and Hong Kong.

This in my opinion has become a ticking time bomb for them  because they have made time a terrible enemy.  To justify their establishment expenses, they are desperate to deploy capital in India.  However, when the environment becomes non-conducive and remains so for an extended period of time, their frustrations start to build up.  This recent article on <a href="http://tinyurl.com/6un48or">DE Shaw's plan to downsize its India operation</a> (<a href="http://tinyurl.com/6un48or">http://tinyurl.com/6un48or</a>) is only one of many such that I've read in recent times.

The other end of the spectrum are allocators who believe that India is not a significant opportunity and don't provide any dedicated resources to India.  They execute their India exposure using teams sitting in New York, London or Singapore and make it part of their Asia ex-Japan pools.  While there is no time horizon mismatch there, I think that is a terrible way to invest in India.

So what is the right approach?  In my opinion, it is essential to have a team with ears and feet on the ground in India to invest successfully in India.  It is imperative that the <em>key decision maker</em> be based in India.  There is no way that someone who lives outside India for 182 days in a year can successfully invest based on "research" generated by their India investment teams.  However, it is also essential that the team in India be kept very simple and rudimentary.

To make time a friend, it is essential that the capital allocator be willing to hang around in India doing nothing for several years and not feel the pressure to <em>make something happen</em>.

This probably sounds like I am talking my book.  I am.  However, it is important to keep in mind that we've structured our operations the way we have because we believe in what I've highlighted above and not the other way around.]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://atyantcapital.com/india/making-time-your-enemy/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
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		<item>
		<title>Best Return/Risk Profiles in Project Finance</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/precious-metals/best-returnrisk-profiles-in-project-finance/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/precious-metals/best-returnrisk-profiles-in-project-finance/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 15 Apr 2012 18:16:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>vedant</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global & US]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Precious Metals]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3705</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Over the last three years, many pools of capital a.k.a private funds have formed for the specific purpose of investing in real estate, as well as credit situations. I argue that when large pools of competing capital exist to target a certain sector, the potential returns for those given set of opportunities are merely within [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[Over the last three years, many pools of capital a.k.a private funds have formed for the specific purpose of investing in real estate, as well as credit situations. I argue that when large pools of competing capital exist to target a certain sector, the potential returns for those given set of opportunities are merely within the ballpark of risk adjusted market returns.

The area where funding completely shut down and little has formed as a replacement to date, is Project Finance. Nobody wants, and even fewer have the wherewithal, to fund large scale, long term, non cash flowing until completion projects. And precisely for this reason, we are seeing the most outstanding return/risk profiles here.

Now I don't see funds forming in a meaningful way to take advantage of present circumstances any time soon. This is in great part due to a general decline in risk appetite as well as sophisticated capital sticking to its knitting. Real estate people are staying in real estate, tech people in tech and widget people in widgets. This leaves industries to internally generate and accrue cash flow for the purposes of financing these longer term project opportunities.]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://atyantcapital.com/precious-metals/best-returnrisk-profiles-in-project-finance/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Transformational Impact Of The US Energy Boom</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/india/transformational-impact-of-the-us-energy-boom/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/india/transformational-impact-of-the-us-energy-boom/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Apr 2012 18:09:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>rahul</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global & US]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3702</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[When the history of the twenty first century is written, one of the defining aspects that will be written about will be the invention/discovery of hydraulic fracking, horizontal drilling and the commercial exploitation of shale gas and shale oil.

It is unfortunate that the discovery of something so transformational has happened in the depths of the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[When the history of the twenty first century is written, one of the defining aspects that will be written about will be the invention/discovery of hydraulic fracking, horizontal drilling and the commercial exploitation of shale gas and shale oil.

It is unfortunate that the discovery of something so transformational has happened in the depths of the biggest economic and financial market slumps in a century.  It is the nature of the present environment that prevents us from fully appreciating the impact of what has happened.

The population of the world recently touched 7 billion and if projections are to be believed, the world will have a population of 9 billion by the year 2050.  The Economist newspaper published a special report last year called <em><a href="http://www.economist.com/node/18200618">The 9 billion people question</a> </em>(http://www.economist.com/node/18200618).

The two things that are needed for the planet to sustain 9 billion people and to offer them increasingly higher standards of living are food and fresh water.  If we have sufficient and affordable energy, these two problems are solved.

While the world has become concerned about its carbon footprint and there has been a previously unimagined level of government focus on green energy and subsidies to encourage it, I believe that commercially affordable and ubiquitous green energy is at least 50 years away.  However, the discovery of affordable shale gas and shale oil gives us the window required to sustain higher standards of living for a world population headed to 9 billion even as we work on perfecting the economics and utilization of green energy.

I believe that the world is on the precipice of a gas and oil boom with the US at the forefront.  The next big thing is still going to come from the US.  No, it will not be web 4.0, it will be <em>conventional energy.</em>]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>It Is All About The Soft Infrastructure</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/india/it-is-all-about-the-soft-infrastructure/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/india/it-is-all-about-the-soft-infrastructure/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Apr 2012 17:45:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>rahul</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3696</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The period from 2007 to 2008 was unique in many ways.  In the midst of a big increase in oil prices, food prices had started sky-rocketing.  As the food versus fuel debate was raging, the world became concerned with its ability to produce enough food in the future.

While the Malthusian concerns were at their peak, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[The period from 2007 to 2008 was unique in many ways.  In the midst of a big increase in oil prices, food prices had started sky-rocketing.  As the food versus fuel debate was raging, the world became concerned with its ability to produce enough food in the future.

While the Malthusian concerns were at their peak, African countries like Madagascar and Ethiopia opened up huge tracts of land in their countries to foreigners for farming.  One of my contentions at the time was that land does not grow food, people do.

Karuturi Global, one of the largest producers of roses in the world was smitten by the bug of agricultural colonization of Africa.

What happened subsequently is detailed in this <a href="http://tinyurl.com/7ghm76f">article from Business Today magazine</a> (http://tinyurl.com/7ghm76f).

My biggest takeaway from this article is that wealth is always created by human beings and not by hard assets, raw materials and factors of production.  Wealth is created by the know-how, ingenuity and execution ability of humans.  The embodiment of the above attributes are the institutions (companies, regulators, courts, universities etc. etc.) or the <em>soft infrastructure</em> of an economy.  That is why I believe that equities have been and will continue to remain the most powerful engines of wealth creation.

The world is smitten by physical infrastructure and the power and might they project.  I contend that in the absence (or during breakdown) of soft infrastructure, physical infrastructure is absolutely useless.  History has demonstrated this repeatedly.

The starkest display of this was right after the collapse of the Soviet Union.  This was visually depicted in the Nicolas Cage movie <em>Lord Of War, </em>in which arms dealer Yuri Orlov smuggled arms out of leaderless warehouses full of state of the art weapons after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

When Argentina's government defaulted on its external debt in 2001 and the banking system seized up, things came to a complete standstill.

We recently saw things completely come to a standstill in Egypt.  It is  anyone's guess how and when things will even return just to the state  that existed before the Arab Spring revolution.

If anyone has visited a state of the art factory or office building that has been mothballed because its owner filed for bankruptcy and could not fund it, he or she knows what I am talking about.

This is the biggest reason why I am bullish about the US economy and why I believe that the 21st century will be the American century.  As much as Americans complain about the breakdown in the economy and the problems the economy faces because of the country's fractured politics and its indebtedness, the US has some the biggest, best and strongest (relatively) institutions in the world.

The US has the best <em>soft infrastructure</em> in the world and there is no country that it is even remotely in competition with the US.

<strong>
</strong>]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>It Does Not Have To Be Exciting</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/precious-metals/best-returnrisk-profiles-in-project-finance/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/precious-metals/best-returnrisk-profiles-in-project-finance/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 15 Apr 2012 18:16:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>vedant</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global & US]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Precious Metals]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3705</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Over the last three years, many pools of capital a.k.a private funds have formed for the specific purpose of investing in real estate, as well as credit situations. I argue that when large pools of competing capital exist to target a certain sector, the potential returns for those given set of opportunities are merely within [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[Over the last three years, many pools of capital a.k.a private funds have formed for the specific purpose of investing in real estate, as well as credit situations. I argue that when large pools of competing capital exist to target a certain sector, the potential returns for those given set of opportunities are merely within the ballpark of risk adjusted market returns.

The area where funding completely shut down and little has formed as a replacement to date, is Project Finance. Nobody wants, and even fewer have the wherewithal, to fund large scale, long term, non cash flowing until completion projects. And precisely for this reason, we are seeing the most outstanding return/risk profiles here.

Now I don't see funds forming in a meaningful way to take advantage of present circumstances any time soon. This is in great part due to a general decline in risk appetite as well as sophisticated capital sticking to its knitting. Real estate people are staying in real estate, tech people in tech and widget people in widgets. This leaves industries to internally generate and accrue cash flow for the purposes of financing these longer term project opportunities.]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Atyant Capital</title>
	<atom:link href="http://atyantcapital.com/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://atyantcapital.com</link>
	<description>Expertise in Emerging Market Investments</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Tue, 15 May 2012 08:34:07 +0000</lastBuildDate>
	<generator>http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6</generator>
	<language>en</language>
	<sy:updatePeriod>hourly</sy:updatePeriod>
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			<item>
		<title>Occasional Monsoon Failures Are Necessary</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/india/occasional-monsoon-failures-are-necessary/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/india/occasional-monsoon-failures-are-necessary/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 15 May 2012 08:34:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>rahul</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3780</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Indian agriculture is disproportionately dependent on the monsoon rains that arrive between June and September every year.  The Indian government, despite years of lip service, has not built adequate irrigation infrastructure to reduce the dependence of the country on the monsoon rains.

India has had two good years of rains in 2010 and 2011.  The deficient [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[Indian agriculture is disproportionately dependent on the monsoon rains that arrive between June and September every year.  The Indian government, despite years of lip service, has not built adequate irrigation infrastructure to reduce the dependence of the country on the monsoon rains.

India has had two good years of rains in 2010 and 2011.  The deficient monsoon in 2009 was not a complete drought.  The last severe countrywide drought was in 2001 and 2002.

Failure of the monsoon has a direct bearing on India's GDP.  El Nino weather patterns have usually not been friendly to the monsoons and the severest droughts in India have occurred during El Nino systems in the pacific ocean.  It also seems that Murphy's law works and when it rains it pours (no pun intended).

2012 is shaping up to be a severe El Nino year and India's GDP is likely to clock a 6% growth rate without a monsoon failure.  My hunch (without scientific basis or crystal ball gazing) is that India could have a severe monsoon failure this year.  A monsoon failure will make Indian GDP growth clock a 5% number.  This will make all politicians and economists see the bogey-man.

However, in my view, occasional monsoon failures are essential for the sustenance of Indian agriculture, just like forest fires are essential for the health of the forest.

There are several things that an occasional monsoon failure achieves:

- It gives the top soil rest and gives it time to rebuild its nutrient content and thereby to rebuild its crop yielding capability.  In the absence of monsoon failure, farmers over-work their land.

- It creates agricultural cyclicality that otherwise the free market would have to create.

- It prevents the terms of trade of agriculture from deteriorating rapidly.

- It sends a strong message to the government, via the electorate, to move and take action toward building non monsoon dependent irrigation infrastructure.

- It helps the government of India to empty its granaries and prevents valuable grain from rotting.  In 2011, India had record foodgrain output of 253 million tonnes.  The central government is carrying food grain stocks of 71 million tonnes.  These are the highest stocks ever.  The previous record of 62.5 million tonnes was set prior to the drought in 2001-2002.

- It forces people off the land and makes agriculture more productive (perversely) and more profitable for the survivors.  65% of India's population lives in villages and depends directly or indirectly on agriculture.  This makes poverty fester as agriculture cannot generate higher standard of living for such a large number of people.

Therefore in my view, occasional monsoon failures are necessary and good for the long term health of the economy.

In the interim, the outlook for Indian GDP growth looks dire.  I once again state on record that the governor of Reserve Bank of India is drinking the wrong monetary economics Kool-Aid and needs to reduce interest rates in a big way, quickly.]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://atyantcapital.com/india/occasional-monsoon-failures-are-necessary/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Rahul Saraogi on The Manual of Ideas</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/tracking-rahul/rahul-saragoi-on-the-manual-of-ideas/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/tracking-rahul/rahul-saragoi-on-the-manual-of-ideas/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 02 May 2012 20:09:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Pratik Sharma</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3754</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In his interview with Oliver Mihaljevic of The Manual of Ideas, Rahul talks about his approach to investing and how it applies to Indian Markets. A world class publication The Manual of Ideas is used by the who’s who of the international investment community.

]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[In his interview with Oliver Mihaljevic of <a href="www.manualofideas.com" target="_blank">The Manual of Ideas,</a> Rahul talks about his approach to investing and how it applies to Indian Markets. A world class publication The Manual of Ideas is used by the who’s who of the international investment community.

<iframe width="640" height="360" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/kZBWZd_zB8w" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://atyantcapital.com/tracking-rahul/rahul-saragoi-on-the-manual-of-ideas/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Live Tweeting From Omaha</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/india/live-tweeting-from-omaha/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/india/live-tweeting-from-omaha/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 01 May 2012 13:59:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>rahul</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3751</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I am going to be at the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting in Omaha this Saturday, 5th May.  I will tweet my thoughts live from the event.  You can follow me at http://twitter.com/#!/RahulSaraogi

If you are going to be in Omaha and want to connect, reach out to me.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[I am going to be at the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting in Omaha this Saturday, 5th May.  I will tweet my thoughts live from the event.  You can follow me at <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/RahulSaraogi">http://twitter.com/#!/RahulSaraogi</a>

If you are going to be in Omaha and want to connect, reach out to me.]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>2</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Building on the Lessons of Poker Great Amarillo Slim</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/asset-management-industry/building-on-the-lessons-of-poker-great-amarillo-slim/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/asset-management-industry/building-on-the-lessons-of-poker-great-amarillo-slim/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 24 Apr 2012 15:10:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>vedant</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3736</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Amarillo Slim was a great poker player and his three keys to playing the game well apply equally to navigating the markets successfully; you need 1) know the 60/40 end of a proposition 2) use risk management and 3) know thyself.

Know thyself has to do with psychology and the mental game. As the saying goes, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[Amarillo Slim was a great poker player and his three keys to playing the game well apply equally to navigating the markets successfully; you need 1) know the 60/40 end of a proposition 2) use risk management and 3) know thyself.

Know thyself has to do with psychology and the mental game. As the saying goes, "Everyone has a plan, until they get punched in the face" and so keys 1 and 2 are all well and good, but are you going to be able to employ them real time?

This past year, my friend taught me the concept of being centered. He says my job is to make good, unemotional decisions and you cannot do that if you are not centered. I have found for me to be centered, I need to put myself in a position so that I do not fear, nor hope for any particular outcome. I want to be able to come into work each and every single day and either be opening positions, closing them or doing nothing based all on my predefined rules. This requires me to predefine all potential scenarios and develop a plan of action for each given scenario. Operating in this manner has allowed me to neither fear, nor hope for any particular outcome, but just unemotionally execute on my predetermined plan.]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://atyantcapital.com/asset-management-industry/building-on-the-lessons-of-poker-great-amarillo-slim/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Ivanhoe&#8217;s Rights Offering is a Role Model</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/precious-metals/ivanhoes-rights-offering-is-a-role-model/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/precious-metals/ivanhoes-rights-offering-is-a-role-model/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 22 Apr 2012 18:10:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>vedant</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global & US]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Precious Metals]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3731</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Last week, Ivanhoe Mines (NYSE: IVN) announced an .8 billion rights offering as part of a Rio Tinto (NYSE: RIO) supported project finance package to transition Ivanhoe's Oyu Tolgoi copper/gold project into a Rio Tinto major mining operation. All existing Ivanhoe shareholders (which includes Rio Tinto at 51% and Ivanhoe CEO/Founder Robert Friedland at 10+%) [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[Last week, Ivanhoe Mines (NYSE: IVN) announced an .8 billion rights offering as part of a Rio Tinto (NYSE: RIO) supported project finance package to transition Ivanhoe's Oyu Tolgoi copper/gold project into a Rio Tinto major mining operation. All existing Ivanhoe shareholders (which includes Rio Tinto at 51% and Ivanhoe CEO/Founder Robert Friedland at 10+%) will be able to participate on an equal, proportional basis in purchasing additional common shares of IVN at a subscription price of C.34 (current market price C.65).

Other Canadian mining companies, are you taking note? Instead of your bought deals and private placements, how about equity financing with the more shareholder friendly rights offerings? With rights offerings, existing shareholders can avoid having their stakes diluted regardless of how low you price the financing. In a tough market such as now, you can sweeten the deal with the subscription price at a discount to market price and free trading rights. Required of you would be better planning, more paperwork and saying no to the banker offering you seemingly easy cash.]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://atyantcapital.com/precious-metals/ivanhoes-rights-offering-is-a-role-model/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Making Time Your Enemy</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/india/making-time-your-enemy/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/india/making-time-your-enemy/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Apr 2012 08:49:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>rahul</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3728</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I've always maintained that to be a successful investor, one has to make time a friend and not an enemy.  There are innumerable potential opportunities in life where we know the eventual outcome but we don't know when the outcome will take place.  Such situations are not risky but uncertain.

Of all the places in the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[I've always maintained that to be a successful investor, one has to make time a friend and not an enemy.  There are innumerable potential opportunities in life where we know the eventual outcome but we don't know when the outcome will take place.  Such situations are not risky but uncertain.

Of all the places in the world, India excels at the art of creating uncertainty in know outcomes.  Even things that seem absolutely imminent can suddenly become uncertain.

There are many ways of making time an enemy including things like leverage.  However, one can make time an enemy with something as basic as one's structure, setup and approach to investing.

Many global capital allocators in areas including venture capital, private equity and hedge funds became enamored by India in recent years and setup large establishments in India.  They hired star fund managers and recruited associates and analysts at top dollar salaries.  They ruined  the market for high quality secretaries and prime office space in Mumbai and Delhi by outbidding incumbents.  They replicated their IT systems and security policies and transportation policies and almost everything else from their offices in New York, London and Hong Kong.

This in my opinion has become a ticking time bomb for them  because they have made time a terrible enemy.  To justify their establishment expenses, they are desperate to deploy capital in India.  However, when the environment becomes non-conducive and remains so for an extended period of time, their frustrations start to build up.  This recent article on <a href="http://tinyurl.com/6un48or">DE Shaw's plan to downsize its India operation</a> (<a href="http://tinyurl.com/6un48or">http://tinyurl.com/6un48or</a>) is only one of many such that I've read in recent times.

The other end of the spectrum are allocators who believe that India is not a significant opportunity and don't provide any dedicated resources to India.  They execute their India exposure using teams sitting in New York, London or Singapore and make it part of their Asia ex-Japan pools.  While there is no time horizon mismatch there, I think that is a terrible way to invest in India.

So what is the right approach?  In my opinion, it is essential to have a team with ears and feet on the ground in India to invest successfully in India.  It is imperative that the <em>key decision maker</em> be based in India.  There is no way that someone who lives outside India for 182 days in a year can successfully invest based on "research" generated by their India investment teams.  However, it is also essential that the team in India be kept very simple and rudimentary.

To make time a friend, it is essential that the capital allocator be willing to hang around in India doing nothing for several years and not feel the pressure to <em>make something happen</em>.

This probably sounds like I am talking my book.  I am.  However, it is important to keep in mind that we've structured our operations the way we have because we believe in what I've highlighted above and not the other way around.]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://atyantcapital.com/india/making-time-your-enemy/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Best Return/Risk Profiles in Project Finance</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/precious-metals/best-returnrisk-profiles-in-project-finance/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/precious-metals/best-returnrisk-profiles-in-project-finance/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 15 Apr 2012 18:16:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>vedant</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global & US]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Precious Metals]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3705</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Over the last three years, many pools of capital a.k.a private funds have formed for the specific purpose of investing in real estate, as well as credit situations. I argue that when large pools of competing capital exist to target a certain sector, the potential returns for those given set of opportunities are merely within [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[Over the last three years, many pools of capital a.k.a private funds have formed for the specific purpose of investing in real estate, as well as credit situations. I argue that when large pools of competing capital exist to target a certain sector, the potential returns for those given set of opportunities are merely within the ballpark of risk adjusted market returns.

The area where funding completely shut down and little has formed as a replacement to date, is Project Finance. Nobody wants, and even fewer have the wherewithal, to fund large scale, long term, non cash flowing until completion projects. And precisely for this reason, we are seeing the most outstanding return/risk profiles here.

Now I don't see funds forming in a meaningful way to take advantage of present circumstances any time soon. This is in great part due to a general decline in risk appetite as well as sophisticated capital sticking to its knitting. Real estate people are staying in real estate, tech people in tech and widget people in widgets. This leaves industries to internally generate and accrue cash flow for the purposes of financing these longer term project opportunities.]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Transformational Impact Of The US Energy Boom</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/india/transformational-impact-of-the-us-energy-boom/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/india/transformational-impact-of-the-us-energy-boom/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Apr 2012 18:09:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>rahul</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global & US]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3702</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[When the history of the twenty first century is written, one of the defining aspects that will be written about will be the invention/discovery of hydraulic fracking, horizontal drilling and the commercial exploitation of shale gas and shale oil.

It is unfortunate that the discovery of something so transformational has happened in the depths of the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[When the history of the twenty first century is written, one of the defining aspects that will be written about will be the invention/discovery of hydraulic fracking, horizontal drilling and the commercial exploitation of shale gas and shale oil.

It is unfortunate that the discovery of something so transformational has happened in the depths of the biggest economic and financial market slumps in a century.  It is the nature of the present environment that prevents us from fully appreciating the impact of what has happened.

The population of the world recently touched 7 billion and if projections are to be believed, the world will have a population of 9 billion by the year 2050.  The Economist newspaper published a special report last year called <em><a href="http://www.economist.com/node/18200618">The 9 billion people question</a> </em>(http://www.economist.com/node/18200618).

The two things that are needed for the planet to sustain 9 billion people and to offer them increasingly higher standards of living are food and fresh water.  If we have sufficient and affordable energy, these two problems are solved.

While the world has become concerned about its carbon footprint and there has been a previously unimagined level of government focus on green energy and subsidies to encourage it, I believe that commercially affordable and ubiquitous green energy is at least 50 years away.  However, the discovery of affordable shale gas and shale oil gives us the window required to sustain higher standards of living for a world population headed to 9 billion even as we work on perfecting the economics and utilization of green energy.

I believe that the world is on the precipice of a gas and oil boom with the US at the forefront.  The next big thing is still going to come from the US.  No, it will not be web 4.0, it will be <em>conventional energy.</em>]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>It Is All About The Soft Infrastructure</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/india/it-is-all-about-the-soft-infrastructure/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/india/it-is-all-about-the-soft-infrastructure/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Apr 2012 17:45:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>rahul</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3696</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The period from 2007 to 2008 was unique in many ways.  In the midst of a big increase in oil prices, food prices had started sky-rocketing.  As the food versus fuel debate was raging, the world became concerned with its ability to produce enough food in the future.

While the Malthusian concerns were at their peak, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[The period from 2007 to 2008 was unique in many ways.  In the midst of a big increase in oil prices, food prices had started sky-rocketing.  As the food versus fuel debate was raging, the world became concerned with its ability to produce enough food in the future.

While the Malthusian concerns were at their peak, African countries like Madagascar and Ethiopia opened up huge tracts of land in their countries to foreigners for farming.  One of my contentions at the time was that land does not grow food, people do.

Karuturi Global, one of the largest producers of roses in the world was smitten by the bug of agricultural colonization of Africa.

What happened subsequently is detailed in this <a href="http://tinyurl.com/7ghm76f">article from Business Today magazine</a> (http://tinyurl.com/7ghm76f).

My biggest takeaway from this article is that wealth is always created by human beings and not by hard assets, raw materials and factors of production.  Wealth is created by the know-how, ingenuity and execution ability of humans.  The embodiment of the above attributes are the institutions (companies, regulators, courts, universities etc. etc.) or the <em>soft infrastructure</em> of an economy.  That is why I believe that equities have been and will continue to remain the most powerful engines of wealth creation.

The world is smitten by physical infrastructure and the power and might they project.  I contend that in the absence (or during breakdown) of soft infrastructure, physical infrastructure is absolutely useless.  History has demonstrated this repeatedly.

The starkest display of this was right after the collapse of the Soviet Union.  This was visually depicted in the Nicolas Cage movie <em>Lord Of War, </em>in which arms dealer Yuri Orlov smuggled arms out of leaderless warehouses full of state of the art weapons after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

When Argentina's government defaulted on its external debt in 2001 and the banking system seized up, things came to a complete standstill.

We recently saw things completely come to a standstill in Egypt.  It is  anyone's guess how and when things will even return just to the state  that existed before the Arab Spring revolution.

If anyone has visited a state of the art factory or office building that has been mothballed because its owner filed for bankruptcy and could not fund it, he or she knows what I am talking about.

This is the biggest reason why I am bullish about the US economy and why I believe that the 21st century will be the American century.  As much as Americans complain about the breakdown in the economy and the problems the economy faces because of the country's fractured politics and its indebtedness, the US has some the biggest, best and strongest (relatively) institutions in the world.

The US has the best <em>soft infrastructure</em> in the world and there is no country that it is even remotely in competition with the US.

<strong>
</strong>]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>It Does Not Have To Be Exciting</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/india/transformational-impact-of-the-us-energy-boom/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/india/transformational-impact-of-the-us-energy-boom/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Apr 2012 18:09:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>rahul</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global & US]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3702</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[When the history of the twenty first century is written, one of the defining aspects that will be written about will be the invention/discovery of hydraulic fracking, horizontal drilling and the commercial exploitation of shale gas and shale oil.

It is unfortunate that the discovery of something so transformational has happened in the depths of the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[When the history of the twenty first century is written, one of the defining aspects that will be written about will be the invention/discovery of hydraulic fracking, horizontal drilling and the commercial exploitation of shale gas and shale oil.

It is unfortunate that the discovery of something so transformational has happened in the depths of the biggest economic and financial market slumps in a century.  It is the nature of the present environment that prevents us from fully appreciating the impact of what has happened.

The population of the world recently touched 7 billion and if projections are to be believed, the world will have a population of 9 billion by the year 2050.  The Economist newspaper published a special report last year called <em><a href="http://www.economist.com/node/18200618">The 9 billion people question</a> </em>(http://www.economist.com/node/18200618).

The two things that are needed for the planet to sustain 9 billion people and to offer them increasingly higher standards of living are food and fresh water.  If we have sufficient and affordable energy, these two problems are solved.

While the world has become concerned about its carbon footprint and there has been a previously unimagined level of government focus on green energy and subsidies to encourage it, I believe that commercially affordable and ubiquitous green energy is at least 50 years away.  However, the discovery of affordable shale gas and shale oil gives us the window required to sustain higher standards of living for a world population headed to 9 billion even as we work on perfecting the economics and utilization of green energy.

I believe that the world is on the precipice of a gas and oil boom with the US at the forefront.  The next big thing is still going to come from the US.  No, it will not be web 4.0, it will be <em>conventional energy.</em>]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://atyantcapital.com/india/transformational-impact-of-the-us-energy-boom/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Atyant Capital</title>
	<atom:link href="http://atyantcapital.com/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://atyantcapital.com</link>
	<description>Expertise in Emerging Market Investments</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Tue, 15 May 2012 08:34:07 +0000</lastBuildDate>
	<generator>http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6</generator>
	<language>en</language>
	<sy:updatePeriod>hourly</sy:updatePeriod>
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			<item>
		<title>Occasional Monsoon Failures Are Necessary</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/india/occasional-monsoon-failures-are-necessary/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/india/occasional-monsoon-failures-are-necessary/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 15 May 2012 08:34:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>rahul</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3780</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Indian agriculture is disproportionately dependent on the monsoon rains that arrive between June and September every year.  The Indian government, despite years of lip service, has not built adequate irrigation infrastructure to reduce the dependence of the country on the monsoon rains.

India has had two good years of rains in 2010 and 2011.  The deficient [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[Indian agriculture is disproportionately dependent on the monsoon rains that arrive between June and September every year.  The Indian government, despite years of lip service, has not built adequate irrigation infrastructure to reduce the dependence of the country on the monsoon rains.

India has had two good years of rains in 2010 and 2011.  The deficient monsoon in 2009 was not a complete drought.  The last severe countrywide drought was in 2001 and 2002.

Failure of the monsoon has a direct bearing on India's GDP.  El Nino weather patterns have usually not been friendly to the monsoons and the severest droughts in India have occurred during El Nino systems in the pacific ocean.  It also seems that Murphy's law works and when it rains it pours (no pun intended).

2012 is shaping up to be a severe El Nino year and India's GDP is likely to clock a 6% growth rate without a monsoon failure.  My hunch (without scientific basis or crystal ball gazing) is that India could have a severe monsoon failure this year.  A monsoon failure will make Indian GDP growth clock a 5% number.  This will make all politicians and economists see the bogey-man.

However, in my view, occasional monsoon failures are essential for the sustenance of Indian agriculture, just like forest fires are essential for the health of the forest.

There are several things that an occasional monsoon failure achieves:

- It gives the top soil rest and gives it time to rebuild its nutrient content and thereby to rebuild its crop yielding capability.  In the absence of monsoon failure, farmers over-work their land.

- It creates agricultural cyclicality that otherwise the free market would have to create.

- It prevents the terms of trade of agriculture from deteriorating rapidly.

- It sends a strong message to the government, via the electorate, to move and take action toward building non monsoon dependent irrigation infrastructure.

- It helps the government of India to empty its granaries and prevents valuable grain from rotting.  In 2011, India had record foodgrain output of 253 million tonnes.  The central government is carrying food grain stocks of 71 million tonnes.  These are the highest stocks ever.  The previous record of 62.5 million tonnes was set prior to the drought in 2001-2002.

- It forces people off the land and makes agriculture more productive (perversely) and more profitable for the survivors.  65% of India's population lives in villages and depends directly or indirectly on agriculture.  This makes poverty fester as agriculture cannot generate higher standard of living for such a large number of people.

Therefore in my view, occasional monsoon failures are necessary and good for the long term health of the economy.

In the interim, the outlook for Indian GDP growth looks dire.  I once again state on record that the governor of Reserve Bank of India is drinking the wrong monetary economics Kool-Aid and needs to reduce interest rates in a big way, quickly.]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://atyantcapital.com/india/occasional-monsoon-failures-are-necessary/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Rahul Saraogi on The Manual of Ideas</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/tracking-rahul/rahul-saragoi-on-the-manual-of-ideas/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/tracking-rahul/rahul-saragoi-on-the-manual-of-ideas/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 02 May 2012 20:09:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Pratik Sharma</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3754</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In his interview with Oliver Mihaljevic of The Manual of Ideas, Rahul talks about his approach to investing and how it applies to Indian Markets. A world class publication The Manual of Ideas is used by the who’s who of the international investment community.

]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[In his interview with Oliver Mihaljevic of <a href="www.manualofideas.com" target="_blank">The Manual of Ideas,</a> Rahul talks about his approach to investing and how it applies to Indian Markets. A world class publication The Manual of Ideas is used by the who’s who of the international investment community.

<iframe width="640" height="360" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/kZBWZd_zB8w" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://atyantcapital.com/tracking-rahul/rahul-saragoi-on-the-manual-of-ideas/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Live Tweeting From Omaha</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/india/live-tweeting-from-omaha/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/india/live-tweeting-from-omaha/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 01 May 2012 13:59:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>rahul</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3751</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I am going to be at the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting in Omaha this Saturday, 5th May.  I will tweet my thoughts live from the event.  You can follow me at http://twitter.com/#!/RahulSaraogi

If you are going to be in Omaha and want to connect, reach out to me.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[I am going to be at the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting in Omaha this Saturday, 5th May.  I will tweet my thoughts live from the event.  You can follow me at <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/RahulSaraogi">http://twitter.com/#!/RahulSaraogi</a>

If you are going to be in Omaha and want to connect, reach out to me.]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>2</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Building on the Lessons of Poker Great Amarillo Slim</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/asset-management-industry/building-on-the-lessons-of-poker-great-amarillo-slim/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/asset-management-industry/building-on-the-lessons-of-poker-great-amarillo-slim/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 24 Apr 2012 15:10:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>vedant</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3736</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Amarillo Slim was a great poker player and his three keys to playing the game well apply equally to navigating the markets successfully; you need 1) know the 60/40 end of a proposition 2) use risk management and 3) know thyself.

Know thyself has to do with psychology and the mental game. As the saying goes, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[Amarillo Slim was a great poker player and his three keys to playing the game well apply equally to navigating the markets successfully; you need 1) know the 60/40 end of a proposition 2) use risk management and 3) know thyself.

Know thyself has to do with psychology and the mental game. As the saying goes, "Everyone has a plan, until they get punched in the face" and so keys 1 and 2 are all well and good, but are you going to be able to employ them real time?

This past year, my friend taught me the concept of being centered. He says my job is to make good, unemotional decisions and you cannot do that if you are not centered. I have found for me to be centered, I need to put myself in a position so that I do not fear, nor hope for any particular outcome. I want to be able to come into work each and every single day and either be opening positions, closing them or doing nothing based all on my predefined rules. This requires me to predefine all potential scenarios and develop a plan of action for each given scenario. Operating in this manner has allowed me to neither fear, nor hope for any particular outcome, but just unemotionally execute on my predetermined plan.]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://atyantcapital.com/asset-management-industry/building-on-the-lessons-of-poker-great-amarillo-slim/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Ivanhoe&#8217;s Rights Offering is a Role Model</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/precious-metals/ivanhoes-rights-offering-is-a-role-model/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/precious-metals/ivanhoes-rights-offering-is-a-role-model/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 22 Apr 2012 18:10:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>vedant</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global & US]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Precious Metals]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3731</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Last week, Ivanhoe Mines (NYSE: IVN) announced an .8 billion rights offering as part of a Rio Tinto (NYSE: RIO) supported project finance package to transition Ivanhoe's Oyu Tolgoi copper/gold project into a Rio Tinto major mining operation. All existing Ivanhoe shareholders (which includes Rio Tinto at 51% and Ivanhoe CEO/Founder Robert Friedland at 10+%) [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[Last week, Ivanhoe Mines (NYSE: IVN) announced an .8 billion rights offering as part of a Rio Tinto (NYSE: RIO) supported project finance package to transition Ivanhoe's Oyu Tolgoi copper/gold project into a Rio Tinto major mining operation. All existing Ivanhoe shareholders (which includes Rio Tinto at 51% and Ivanhoe CEO/Founder Robert Friedland at 10+%) will be able to participate on an equal, proportional basis in purchasing additional common shares of IVN at a subscription price of C.34 (current market price C.65).

Other Canadian mining companies, are you taking note? Instead of your bought deals and private placements, how about equity financing with the more shareholder friendly rights offerings? With rights offerings, existing shareholders can avoid having their stakes diluted regardless of how low you price the financing. In a tough market such as now, you can sweeten the deal with the subscription price at a discount to market price and free trading rights. Required of you would be better planning, more paperwork and saying no to the banker offering you seemingly easy cash.]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://atyantcapital.com/precious-metals/ivanhoes-rights-offering-is-a-role-model/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Making Time Your Enemy</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/india/making-time-your-enemy/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/india/making-time-your-enemy/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Apr 2012 08:49:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>rahul</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3728</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I've always maintained that to be a successful investor, one has to make time a friend and not an enemy.  There are innumerable potential opportunities in life where we know the eventual outcome but we don't know when the outcome will take place.  Such situations are not risky but uncertain.

Of all the places in the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[I've always maintained that to be a successful investor, one has to make time a friend and not an enemy.  There are innumerable potential opportunities in life where we know the eventual outcome but we don't know when the outcome will take place.  Such situations are not risky but uncertain.

Of all the places in the world, India excels at the art of creating uncertainty in know outcomes.  Even things that seem absolutely imminent can suddenly become uncertain.

There are many ways of making time an enemy including things like leverage.  However, one can make time an enemy with something as basic as one's structure, setup and approach to investing.

Many global capital allocators in areas including venture capital, private equity and hedge funds became enamored by India in recent years and setup large establishments in India.  They hired star fund managers and recruited associates and analysts at top dollar salaries.  They ruined  the market for high quality secretaries and prime office space in Mumbai and Delhi by outbidding incumbents.  They replicated their IT systems and security policies and transportation policies and almost everything else from their offices in New York, London and Hong Kong.

This in my opinion has become a ticking time bomb for them  because they have made time a terrible enemy.  To justify their establishment expenses, they are desperate to deploy capital in India.  However, when the environment becomes non-conducive and remains so for an extended period of time, their frustrations start to build up.  This recent article on <a href="http://tinyurl.com/6un48or">DE Shaw's plan to downsize its India operation</a> (<a href="http://tinyurl.com/6un48or">http://tinyurl.com/6un48or</a>) is only one of many such that I've read in recent times.

The other end of the spectrum are allocators who believe that India is not a significant opportunity and don't provide any dedicated resources to India.  They execute their India exposure using teams sitting in New York, London or Singapore and make it part of their Asia ex-Japan pools.  While there is no time horizon mismatch there, I think that is a terrible way to invest in India.

So what is the right approach?  In my opinion, it is essential to have a team with ears and feet on the ground in India to invest successfully in India.  It is imperative that the <em>key decision maker</em> be based in India.  There is no way that someone who lives outside India for 182 days in a year can successfully invest based on "research" generated by their India investment teams.  However, it is also essential that the team in India be kept very simple and rudimentary.

To make time a friend, it is essential that the capital allocator be willing to hang around in India doing nothing for several years and not feel the pressure to <em>make something happen</em>.

This probably sounds like I am talking my book.  I am.  However, it is important to keep in mind that we've structured our operations the way we have because we believe in what I've highlighted above and not the other way around.]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://atyantcapital.com/india/making-time-your-enemy/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Best Return/Risk Profiles in Project Finance</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/precious-metals/best-returnrisk-profiles-in-project-finance/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/precious-metals/best-returnrisk-profiles-in-project-finance/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 15 Apr 2012 18:16:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>vedant</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global & US]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Precious Metals]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3705</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Over the last three years, many pools of capital a.k.a private funds have formed for the specific purpose of investing in real estate, as well as credit situations. I argue that when large pools of competing capital exist to target a certain sector, the potential returns for those given set of opportunities are merely within [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[Over the last three years, many pools of capital a.k.a private funds have formed for the specific purpose of investing in real estate, as well as credit situations. I argue that when large pools of competing capital exist to target a certain sector, the potential returns for those given set of opportunities are merely within the ballpark of risk adjusted market returns.

The area where funding completely shut down and little has formed as a replacement to date, is Project Finance. Nobody wants, and even fewer have the wherewithal, to fund large scale, long term, non cash flowing until completion projects. And precisely for this reason, we are seeing the most outstanding return/risk profiles here.

Now I don't see funds forming in a meaningful way to take advantage of present circumstances any time soon. This is in great part due to a general decline in risk appetite as well as sophisticated capital sticking to its knitting. Real estate people are staying in real estate, tech people in tech and widget people in widgets. This leaves industries to internally generate and accrue cash flow for the purposes of financing these longer term project opportunities.]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://atyantcapital.com/precious-metals/best-returnrisk-profiles-in-project-finance/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Transformational Impact Of The US Energy Boom</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/india/transformational-impact-of-the-us-energy-boom/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/india/transformational-impact-of-the-us-energy-boom/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Apr 2012 18:09:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>rahul</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global & US]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3702</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[When the history of the twenty first century is written, one of the defining aspects that will be written about will be the invention/discovery of hydraulic fracking, horizontal drilling and the commercial exploitation of shale gas and shale oil.

It is unfortunate that the discovery of something so transformational has happened in the depths of the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[When the history of the twenty first century is written, one of the defining aspects that will be written about will be the invention/discovery of hydraulic fracking, horizontal drilling and the commercial exploitation of shale gas and shale oil.

It is unfortunate that the discovery of something so transformational has happened in the depths of the biggest economic and financial market slumps in a century.  It is the nature of the present environment that prevents us from fully appreciating the impact of what has happened.

The population of the world recently touched 7 billion and if projections are to be believed, the world will have a population of 9 billion by the year 2050.  The Economist newspaper published a special report last year called <em><a href="http://www.economist.com/node/18200618">The 9 billion people question</a> </em>(http://www.economist.com/node/18200618).

The two things that are needed for the planet to sustain 9 billion people and to offer them increasingly higher standards of living are food and fresh water.  If we have sufficient and affordable energy, these two problems are solved.

While the world has become concerned about its carbon footprint and there has been a previously unimagined level of government focus on green energy and subsidies to encourage it, I believe that commercially affordable and ubiquitous green energy is at least 50 years away.  However, the discovery of affordable shale gas and shale oil gives us the window required to sustain higher standards of living for a world population headed to 9 billion even as we work on perfecting the economics and utilization of green energy.

I believe that the world is on the precipice of a gas and oil boom with the US at the forefront.  The next big thing is still going to come from the US.  No, it will not be web 4.0, it will be <em>conventional energy.</em>]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://atyantcapital.com/india/transformational-impact-of-the-us-energy-boom/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>It Is All About The Soft Infrastructure</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/india/it-is-all-about-the-soft-infrastructure/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/india/it-is-all-about-the-soft-infrastructure/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Apr 2012 17:45:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>rahul</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3696</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The period from 2007 to 2008 was unique in many ways.  In the midst of a big increase in oil prices, food prices had started sky-rocketing.  As the food versus fuel debate was raging, the world became concerned with its ability to produce enough food in the future.

While the Malthusian concerns were at their peak, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[The period from 2007 to 2008 was unique in many ways.  In the midst of a big increase in oil prices, food prices had started sky-rocketing.  As the food versus fuel debate was raging, the world became concerned with its ability to produce enough food in the future.

While the Malthusian concerns were at their peak, African countries like Madagascar and Ethiopia opened up huge tracts of land in their countries to foreigners for farming.  One of my contentions at the time was that land does not grow food, people do.

Karuturi Global, one of the largest producers of roses in the world was smitten by the bug of agricultural colonization of Africa.

What happened subsequently is detailed in this <a href="http://tinyurl.com/7ghm76f">article from Business Today magazine</a> (http://tinyurl.com/7ghm76f).

My biggest takeaway from this article is that wealth is always created by human beings and not by hard assets, raw materials and factors of production.  Wealth is created by the know-how, ingenuity and execution ability of humans.  The embodiment of the above attributes are the institutions (companies, regulators, courts, universities etc. etc.) or the <em>soft infrastructure</em> of an economy.  That is why I believe that equities have been and will continue to remain the most powerful engines of wealth creation.

The world is smitten by physical infrastructure and the power and might they project.  I contend that in the absence (or during breakdown) of soft infrastructure, physical infrastructure is absolutely useless.  History has demonstrated this repeatedly.

The starkest display of this was right after the collapse of the Soviet Union.  This was visually depicted in the Nicolas Cage movie <em>Lord Of War, </em>in which arms dealer Yuri Orlov smuggled arms out of leaderless warehouses full of state of the art weapons after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

When Argentina's government defaulted on its external debt in 2001 and the banking system seized up, things came to a complete standstill.

We recently saw things completely come to a standstill in Egypt.  It is  anyone's guess how and when things will even return just to the state  that existed before the Arab Spring revolution.

If anyone has visited a state of the art factory or office building that has been mothballed because its owner filed for bankruptcy and could not fund it, he or she knows what I am talking about.

This is the biggest reason why I am bullish about the US economy and why I believe that the 21st century will be the American century.  As much as Americans complain about the breakdown in the economy and the problems the economy faces because of the country's fractured politics and its indebtedness, the US has some the biggest, best and strongest (relatively) institutions in the world.

The US has the best <em>soft infrastructure</em> in the world and there is no country that it is even remotely in competition with the US.

<strong>
</strong>]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>It Does Not Have To Be Exciting</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/india/it-is-all-about-the-soft-infrastructure/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/india/it-is-all-about-the-soft-infrastructure/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Apr 2012 17:45:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>rahul</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3696</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The period from 2007 to 2008 was unique in many ways.  In the midst of a big increase in oil prices, food prices had started sky-rocketing.  As the food versus fuel debate was raging, the world became concerned with its ability to produce enough food in the future.

While the Malthusian concerns were at their peak, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[The period from 2007 to 2008 was unique in many ways.  In the midst of a big increase in oil prices, food prices had started sky-rocketing.  As the food versus fuel debate was raging, the world became concerned with its ability to produce enough food in the future.

While the Malthusian concerns were at their peak, African countries like Madagascar and Ethiopia opened up huge tracts of land in their countries to foreigners for farming.  One of my contentions at the time was that land does not grow food, people do.

Karuturi Global, one of the largest producers of roses in the world was smitten by the bug of agricultural colonization of Africa.

What happened subsequently is detailed in this <a href="http://tinyurl.com/7ghm76f">article from Business Today magazine</a> (http://tinyurl.com/7ghm76f).

My biggest takeaway from this article is that wealth is always created by human beings and not by hard assets, raw materials and factors of production.  Wealth is created by the know-how, ingenuity and execution ability of humans.  The embodiment of the above attributes are the institutions (companies, regulators, courts, universities etc. etc.) or the <em>soft infrastructure</em> of an economy.  That is why I believe that equities have been and will continue to remain the most powerful engines of wealth creation.

The world is smitten by physical infrastructure and the power and might they project.  I contend that in the absence (or during breakdown) of soft infrastructure, physical infrastructure is absolutely useless.  History has demonstrated this repeatedly.

The starkest display of this was right after the collapse of the Soviet Union.  This was visually depicted in the Nicolas Cage movie <em>Lord Of War, </em>in which arms dealer Yuri Orlov smuggled arms out of leaderless warehouses full of state of the art weapons after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

When Argentina's government defaulted on its external debt in 2001 and the banking system seized up, things came to a complete standstill.

We recently saw things completely come to a standstill in Egypt.  It is  anyone's guess how and when things will even return just to the state  that existed before the Arab Spring revolution.

If anyone has visited a state of the art factory or office building that has been mothballed because its owner filed for bankruptcy and could not fund it, he or she knows what I am talking about.

This is the biggest reason why I am bullish about the US economy and why I believe that the 21st century will be the American century.  As much as Americans complain about the breakdown in the economy and the problems the economy faces because of the country's fractured politics and its indebtedness, the US has some the biggest, best and strongest (relatively) institutions in the world.

The US has the best <em>soft infrastructure</em> in the world and there is no country that it is even remotely in competition with the US.

<strong>
</strong>]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Atyant Capital</title>
	<atom:link href="http://atyantcapital.com/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://atyantcapital.com</link>
	<description>Expertise in Emerging Market Investments</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Tue, 15 May 2012 08:34:07 +0000</lastBuildDate>
	<generator>http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6</generator>
	<language>en</language>
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			<item>
		<title>Occasional Monsoon Failures Are Necessary</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/india/occasional-monsoon-failures-are-necessary/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/india/occasional-monsoon-failures-are-necessary/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 15 May 2012 08:34:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>rahul</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3780</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Indian agriculture is disproportionately dependent on the monsoon rains that arrive between June and September every year.  The Indian government, despite years of lip service, has not built adequate irrigation infrastructure to reduce the dependence of the country on the monsoon rains.

India has had two good years of rains in 2010 and 2011.  The deficient [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[Indian agriculture is disproportionately dependent on the monsoon rains that arrive between June and September every year.  The Indian government, despite years of lip service, has not built adequate irrigation infrastructure to reduce the dependence of the country on the monsoon rains.

India has had two good years of rains in 2010 and 2011.  The deficient monsoon in 2009 was not a complete drought.  The last severe countrywide drought was in 2001 and 2002.

Failure of the monsoon has a direct bearing on India's GDP.  El Nino weather patterns have usually not been friendly to the monsoons and the severest droughts in India have occurred during El Nino systems in the pacific ocean.  It also seems that Murphy's law works and when it rains it pours (no pun intended).

2012 is shaping up to be a severe El Nino year and India's GDP is likely to clock a 6% growth rate without a monsoon failure.  My hunch (without scientific basis or crystal ball gazing) is that India could have a severe monsoon failure this year.  A monsoon failure will make Indian GDP growth clock a 5% number.  This will make all politicians and economists see the bogey-man.

However, in my view, occasional monsoon failures are essential for the sustenance of Indian agriculture, just like forest fires are essential for the health of the forest.

There are several things that an occasional monsoon failure achieves:

- It gives the top soil rest and gives it time to rebuild its nutrient content and thereby to rebuild its crop yielding capability.  In the absence of monsoon failure, farmers over-work their land.

- It creates agricultural cyclicality that otherwise the free market would have to create.

- It prevents the terms of trade of agriculture from deteriorating rapidly.

- It sends a strong message to the government, via the electorate, to move and take action toward building non monsoon dependent irrigation infrastructure.

- It helps the government of India to empty its granaries and prevents valuable grain from rotting.  In 2011, India had record foodgrain output of 253 million tonnes.  The central government is carrying food grain stocks of 71 million tonnes.  These are the highest stocks ever.  The previous record of 62.5 million tonnes was set prior to the drought in 2001-2002.

- It forces people off the land and makes agriculture more productive (perversely) and more profitable for the survivors.  65% of India's population lives in villages and depends directly or indirectly on agriculture.  This makes poverty fester as agriculture cannot generate higher standard of living for such a large number of people.

Therefore in my view, occasional monsoon failures are necessary and good for the long term health of the economy.

In the interim, the outlook for Indian GDP growth looks dire.  I once again state on record that the governor of Reserve Bank of India is drinking the wrong monetary economics Kool-Aid and needs to reduce interest rates in a big way, quickly.]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://atyantcapital.com/india/occasional-monsoon-failures-are-necessary/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
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		<title>Rahul Saraogi on The Manual of Ideas</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/tracking-rahul/rahul-saragoi-on-the-manual-of-ideas/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/tracking-rahul/rahul-saragoi-on-the-manual-of-ideas/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 02 May 2012 20:09:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Pratik Sharma</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3754</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In his interview with Oliver Mihaljevic of The Manual of Ideas, Rahul talks about his approach to investing and how it applies to Indian Markets. A world class publication The Manual of Ideas is used by the who’s who of the international investment community.

]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[In his interview with Oliver Mihaljevic of <a href="www.manualofideas.com" target="_blank">The Manual of Ideas,</a> Rahul talks about his approach to investing and how it applies to Indian Markets. A world class publication The Manual of Ideas is used by the who’s who of the international investment community.

<iframe width="640" height="360" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/kZBWZd_zB8w" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://atyantcapital.com/tracking-rahul/rahul-saragoi-on-the-manual-of-ideas/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
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		<title>Live Tweeting From Omaha</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/india/live-tweeting-from-omaha/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/india/live-tweeting-from-omaha/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 01 May 2012 13:59:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>rahul</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3751</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I am going to be at the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting in Omaha this Saturday, 5th May.  I will tweet my thoughts live from the event.  You can follow me at http://twitter.com/#!/RahulSaraogi

If you are going to be in Omaha and want to connect, reach out to me.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[I am going to be at the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting in Omaha this Saturday, 5th May.  I will tweet my thoughts live from the event.  You can follow me at <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/RahulSaraogi">http://twitter.com/#!/RahulSaraogi</a>

If you are going to be in Omaha and want to connect, reach out to me.]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>2</slash:comments>
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		<title>Building on the Lessons of Poker Great Amarillo Slim</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/asset-management-industry/building-on-the-lessons-of-poker-great-amarillo-slim/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/asset-management-industry/building-on-the-lessons-of-poker-great-amarillo-slim/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 24 Apr 2012 15:10:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>vedant</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3736</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Amarillo Slim was a great poker player and his three keys to playing the game well apply equally to navigating the markets successfully; you need 1) know the 60/40 end of a proposition 2) use risk management and 3) know thyself.

Know thyself has to do with psychology and the mental game. As the saying goes, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[Amarillo Slim was a great poker player and his three keys to playing the game well apply equally to navigating the markets successfully; you need 1) know the 60/40 end of a proposition 2) use risk management and 3) know thyself.

Know thyself has to do with psychology and the mental game. As the saying goes, "Everyone has a plan, until they get punched in the face" and so keys 1 and 2 are all well and good, but are you going to be able to employ them real time?

This past year, my friend taught me the concept of being centered. He says my job is to make good, unemotional decisions and you cannot do that if you are not centered. I have found for me to be centered, I need to put myself in a position so that I do not fear, nor hope for any particular outcome. I want to be able to come into work each and every single day and either be opening positions, closing them or doing nothing based all on my predefined rules. This requires me to predefine all potential scenarios and develop a plan of action for each given scenario. Operating in this manner has allowed me to neither fear, nor hope for any particular outcome, but just unemotionally execute on my predetermined plan.]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
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		<item>
		<title>Ivanhoe&#8217;s Rights Offering is a Role Model</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/precious-metals/ivanhoes-rights-offering-is-a-role-model/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/precious-metals/ivanhoes-rights-offering-is-a-role-model/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 22 Apr 2012 18:10:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>vedant</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global & US]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Precious Metals]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3731</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Last week, Ivanhoe Mines (NYSE: IVN) announced an .8 billion rights offering as part of a Rio Tinto (NYSE: RIO) supported project finance package to transition Ivanhoe's Oyu Tolgoi copper/gold project into a Rio Tinto major mining operation. All existing Ivanhoe shareholders (which includes Rio Tinto at 51% and Ivanhoe CEO/Founder Robert Friedland at 10+%) [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[Last week, Ivanhoe Mines (NYSE: IVN) announced an .8 billion rights offering as part of a Rio Tinto (NYSE: RIO) supported project finance package to transition Ivanhoe's Oyu Tolgoi copper/gold project into a Rio Tinto major mining operation. All existing Ivanhoe shareholders (which includes Rio Tinto at 51% and Ivanhoe CEO/Founder Robert Friedland at 10+%) will be able to participate on an equal, proportional basis in purchasing additional common shares of IVN at a subscription price of C.34 (current market price C.65).

Other Canadian mining companies, are you taking note? Instead of your bought deals and private placements, how about equity financing with the more shareholder friendly rights offerings? With rights offerings, existing shareholders can avoid having their stakes diluted regardless of how low you price the financing. In a tough market such as now, you can sweeten the deal with the subscription price at a discount to market price and free trading rights. Required of you would be better planning, more paperwork and saying no to the banker offering you seemingly easy cash.]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
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		<title>Making Time Your Enemy</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/india/making-time-your-enemy/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/india/making-time-your-enemy/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Apr 2012 08:49:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>rahul</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3728</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I've always maintained that to be a successful investor, one has to make time a friend and not an enemy.  There are innumerable potential opportunities in life where we know the eventual outcome but we don't know when the outcome will take place.  Such situations are not risky but uncertain.

Of all the places in the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[I've always maintained that to be a successful investor, one has to make time a friend and not an enemy.  There are innumerable potential opportunities in life where we know the eventual outcome but we don't know when the outcome will take place.  Such situations are not risky but uncertain.

Of all the places in the world, India excels at the art of creating uncertainty in know outcomes.  Even things that seem absolutely imminent can suddenly become uncertain.

There are many ways of making time an enemy including things like leverage.  However, one can make time an enemy with something as basic as one's structure, setup and approach to investing.

Many global capital allocators in areas including venture capital, private equity and hedge funds became enamored by India in recent years and setup large establishments in India.  They hired star fund managers and recruited associates and analysts at top dollar salaries.  They ruined  the market for high quality secretaries and prime office space in Mumbai and Delhi by outbidding incumbents.  They replicated their IT systems and security policies and transportation policies and almost everything else from their offices in New York, London and Hong Kong.

This in my opinion has become a ticking time bomb for them  because they have made time a terrible enemy.  To justify their establishment expenses, they are desperate to deploy capital in India.  However, when the environment becomes non-conducive and remains so for an extended period of time, their frustrations start to build up.  This recent article on <a href="http://tinyurl.com/6un48or">DE Shaw's plan to downsize its India operation</a> (<a href="http://tinyurl.com/6un48or">http://tinyurl.com/6un48or</a>) is only one of many such that I've read in recent times.

The other end of the spectrum are allocators who believe that India is not a significant opportunity and don't provide any dedicated resources to India.  They execute their India exposure using teams sitting in New York, London or Singapore and make it part of their Asia ex-Japan pools.  While there is no time horizon mismatch there, I think that is a terrible way to invest in India.

So what is the right approach?  In my opinion, it is essential to have a team with ears and feet on the ground in India to invest successfully in India.  It is imperative that the <em>key decision maker</em> be based in India.  There is no way that someone who lives outside India for 182 days in a year can successfully invest based on "research" generated by their India investment teams.  However, it is also essential that the team in India be kept very simple and rudimentary.

To make time a friend, it is essential that the capital allocator be willing to hang around in India doing nothing for several years and not feel the pressure to <em>make something happen</em>.

This probably sounds like I am talking my book.  I am.  However, it is important to keep in mind that we've structured our operations the way we have because we believe in what I've highlighted above and not the other way around.]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
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		<item>
		<title>Best Return/Risk Profiles in Project Finance</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/precious-metals/best-returnrisk-profiles-in-project-finance/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/precious-metals/best-returnrisk-profiles-in-project-finance/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 15 Apr 2012 18:16:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>vedant</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global & US]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Precious Metals]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3705</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Over the last three years, many pools of capital a.k.a private funds have formed for the specific purpose of investing in real estate, as well as credit situations. I argue that when large pools of competing capital exist to target a certain sector, the potential returns for those given set of opportunities are merely within [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[Over the last three years, many pools of capital a.k.a private funds have formed for the specific purpose of investing in real estate, as well as credit situations. I argue that when large pools of competing capital exist to target a certain sector, the potential returns for those given set of opportunities are merely within the ballpark of risk adjusted market returns.

The area where funding completely shut down and little has formed as a replacement to date, is Project Finance. Nobody wants, and even fewer have the wherewithal, to fund large scale, long term, non cash flowing until completion projects. And precisely for this reason, we are seeing the most outstanding return/risk profiles here.

Now I don't see funds forming in a meaningful way to take advantage of present circumstances any time soon. This is in great part due to a general decline in risk appetite as well as sophisticated capital sticking to its knitting. Real estate people are staying in real estate, tech people in tech and widget people in widgets. This leaves industries to internally generate and accrue cash flow for the purposes of financing these longer term project opportunities.]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
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		<title>Transformational Impact Of The US Energy Boom</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/india/transformational-impact-of-the-us-energy-boom/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/india/transformational-impact-of-the-us-energy-boom/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Apr 2012 18:09:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>rahul</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global & US]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3702</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[When the history of the twenty first century is written, one of the defining aspects that will be written about will be the invention/discovery of hydraulic fracking, horizontal drilling and the commercial exploitation of shale gas and shale oil.

It is unfortunate that the discovery of something so transformational has happened in the depths of the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[When the history of the twenty first century is written, one of the defining aspects that will be written about will be the invention/discovery of hydraulic fracking, horizontal drilling and the commercial exploitation of shale gas and shale oil.

It is unfortunate that the discovery of something so transformational has happened in the depths of the biggest economic and financial market slumps in a century.  It is the nature of the present environment that prevents us from fully appreciating the impact of what has happened.

The population of the world recently touched 7 billion and if projections are to be believed, the world will have a population of 9 billion by the year 2050.  The Economist newspaper published a special report last year called <em><a href="http://www.economist.com/node/18200618">The 9 billion people question</a> </em>(http://www.economist.com/node/18200618).

The two things that are needed for the planet to sustain 9 billion people and to offer them increasingly higher standards of living are food and fresh water.  If we have sufficient and affordable energy, these two problems are solved.

While the world has become concerned about its carbon footprint and there has been a previously unimagined level of government focus on green energy and subsidies to encourage it, I believe that commercially affordable and ubiquitous green energy is at least 50 years away.  However, the discovery of affordable shale gas and shale oil gives us the window required to sustain higher standards of living for a world population headed to 9 billion even as we work on perfecting the economics and utilization of green energy.

I believe that the world is on the precipice of a gas and oil boom with the US at the forefront.  The next big thing is still going to come from the US.  No, it will not be web 4.0, it will be <em>conventional energy.</em>]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
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		<item>
		<title>It Is All About The Soft Infrastructure</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/india/it-is-all-about-the-soft-infrastructure/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/india/it-is-all-about-the-soft-infrastructure/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Apr 2012 17:45:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>rahul</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3696</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The period from 2007 to 2008 was unique in many ways.  In the midst of a big increase in oil prices, food prices had started sky-rocketing.  As the food versus fuel debate was raging, the world became concerned with its ability to produce enough food in the future.

While the Malthusian concerns were at their peak, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[The period from 2007 to 2008 was unique in many ways.  In the midst of a big increase in oil prices, food prices had started sky-rocketing.  As the food versus fuel debate was raging, the world became concerned with its ability to produce enough food in the future.

While the Malthusian concerns were at their peak, African countries like Madagascar and Ethiopia opened up huge tracts of land in their countries to foreigners for farming.  One of my contentions at the time was that land does not grow food, people do.

Karuturi Global, one of the largest producers of roses in the world was smitten by the bug of agricultural colonization of Africa.

What happened subsequently is detailed in this <a href="http://tinyurl.com/7ghm76f">article from Business Today magazine</a> (http://tinyurl.com/7ghm76f).

My biggest takeaway from this article is that wealth is always created by human beings and not by hard assets, raw materials and factors of production.  Wealth is created by the know-how, ingenuity and execution ability of humans.  The embodiment of the above attributes are the institutions (companies, regulators, courts, universities etc. etc.) or the <em>soft infrastructure</em> of an economy.  That is why I believe that equities have been and will continue to remain the most powerful engines of wealth creation.

The world is smitten by physical infrastructure and the power and might they project.  I contend that in the absence (or during breakdown) of soft infrastructure, physical infrastructure is absolutely useless.  History has demonstrated this repeatedly.

The starkest display of this was right after the collapse of the Soviet Union.  This was visually depicted in the Nicolas Cage movie <em>Lord Of War, </em>in which arms dealer Yuri Orlov smuggled arms out of leaderless warehouses full of state of the art weapons after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

When Argentina's government defaulted on its external debt in 2001 and the banking system seized up, things came to a complete standstill.

We recently saw things completely come to a standstill in Egypt.  It is  anyone's guess how and when things will even return just to the state  that existed before the Arab Spring revolution.

If anyone has visited a state of the art factory or office building that has been mothballed because its owner filed for bankruptcy and could not fund it, he or she knows what I am talking about.

This is the biggest reason why I am bullish about the US economy and why I believe that the 21st century will be the American century.  As much as Americans complain about the breakdown in the economy and the problems the economy faces because of the country's fractured politics and its indebtedness, the US has some the biggest, best and strongest (relatively) institutions in the world.

The US has the best <em>soft infrastructure</em> in the world and there is no country that it is even remotely in competition with the US.

<strong>
</strong>]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
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		<item>
		<title>It Does Not Have To Be Exciting</title>
		<link>http://atyantcapital.com/india/it-does-not-have-to-be-exciting/</link>
		<comments>http://atyantcapital.com/india/it-does-not-have-to-be-exciting/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 26 Mar 2012 12:16:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>rahul</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asset Management Industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Rants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tracking Rahul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Value Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://atyantcapital.com/?p=3663</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Financial markets globally have lost their zing and excitement.  Pension funds and insurance companies with assumptions of 8% nominal returns are starting to appear over optimistic.  There is no big theme, or story or mania that can make equity investors rich overnight.  All the old themes and stories appear to be fizzling out.  Even Web [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[Financial markets globally have lost their zing and excitement.  Pension funds and insurance companies with assumptions of 8% nominal returns are starting to appear over optimistic.  There is no big <em>theme</em>, or <em>story</em> or <em>mania</em> that can make equity investors rich overnight.  All the old themes and stories appear to be fizzling out.  Even Web 3.0 and Apple have become so big that there is not much left on the table for investors.

Is investing dead?  Is there no hope for someone who wants to grow his or her purchasing power through passive investing?

Since I am writing this post, you already know that I don't believe that is true.

Investing is about laying out money today to get back more money at a future date.  As long as the nominal amount of money received at the future date buys more (or substantially more) than the amount of laid out today, investing can be considered successful.

My corollary to the above is that, it doesn't matter what you invest in.  As long as you can buy it at a reasonable price and it compounds at a reasonable rate over a reasonable period of time, you will make out fine.

There are hundreds of mundane and boring businesses that are run by mundane and boring people with mundane and boring moats (example entrenched distribution and customer reach in a sub region) available at (thankfully) mundane and boring prices that make excellent investments.

If a boring business is bought at a boring price (3 or 4 times earnings? 1 or 1.5 times book?) and compounds at a 20% plus rate, it makes for a very attractive investment.  One never needs the business to get <em>discovered</em> or <em>rerated</em> to make an attractive return (of course further de-rating would hurt).

While a macro economy that is roaring ahead rapidly creates wealth, one that is treading water does not necessarily have to be the opposite.

Investing is about turning as many stones as one can.  He who turns the most stones wins.

No one embodied this better than <a href="http://www.economist.com/node/21550274">Walter Schloss</a> (<a href="http://www.economist.com/node/21550274">http://www.economist.com/node/21550274</a>) who recently passed away.]]></content:encoded>
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